Balancing ecosystem function,services and disservices resulting from expanding goose populations

As goose populations increase in abundance, their influence on ecological processes is increasing. We review the evidence for key ecological functions of wild goose populations in Eurasia and North America, including aquatic invertebrate and plant propagule transport, nutrient deposition in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, the influence of goose populations on vegetation biomass, carbon storage and methane emission, species diversity and disease transmission. To estimate the implications of their growing abundance for humans, we explore how these functions contribute to the provision of ecosystem services and disservices. We assess the weight, extent and trends among such impacts, as well as the balance of their value to society. We examine key unresolved issues to enable a more balanced assessment of the economic costs or benefits of migratory geese along their flyways, including the spatial and temporal variation in services and their contrasting value to different user groups. Many ecological functions of geese are concluded to provide neither services nor disservices and, ecosystem disservices currently appear to outweigh services, although this varies between regions. We consider an improved quantification of ecosystem services and disservices, and how these vary along population flyways with respect to variation in valuing certain cultural services, and under different management scenarios aimed at reducing their disservices, essential for a more balanced management of goose populations.     

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) Special Feature: Editorial

The number of MPAs has increased sharply, from just 118 in 1970 to well over 6,300 today. This growth in numbers has also been accompanied by a voluminous growth in the academic literature on the theme, with writers employing ecologic, economic and governance lenses (or a combination thereof) to both support the case for MPA creation, and to evaluate just how successfully (or not) existing MPAs match up to their promises. Research suggests effective management of such protected areas is vital if desired outcomes are to be achieved within the allotted time period. This Special Feature on MPAs therefore seeks to address two key questions derived from the management effectiveness framework of Hockings and others (2000), namely: ‘How appropriate are the management systems and processes in place?’ and ‘Were the desired Objectives achieved—and if so, why?’ Fourteen articles, drawing on different disciplinary perspectives relating to MPA experiences from across the globe, offers insights into these questions by considering, inter alia, how: are MPA sites selected?; is ‘buy-in’ to the process from the various stakeholders achieved?; are these stakeholder’s views reflected in the management systems that evolve?, and what monitoring and evaluation mechanisms are in place? Bringing these perspectives and approaches together through the medium of this Special Feature is thus intended to further our understanding of the different issues that may confront both planners and managers of Marine Protected Areas.     

Effects of Coffee Management Intensity on Composition, Structure, and Regeneration Status of Ethiopian Moist Evergreen Afromontane Forests

The effect of arabica coffee management intensity on composition, structure, and regeneration of moist evergreen Afromontane forests was studied in three traditional coffee-management systems of southwest Ethiopia: semiplantation coffee, semiforest coffee, and forest coffee. Vegetation and environmental data were collected in 84 plots from forests varying in intensity of coffee management. After controlling for environmental variation (altitude, aspect, slope, soil nutrient availability, and soil depth), differences in woody species composition, forest structure, and regeneration potential among management systems were compared using one way analysis of variance. The study showed that intensification of forest coffee cultivation to maximize coffee production negatively affects diversity and structure of Ethiopian moist evergreen Afromontane forests. Intensification of coffee productivity starts with the conversion of forest coffee to semiforest coffee, which has significant negative effects on tree seedling abundance. Further intensification leads to the conversion of semiforest to semiplantation coffee, causing significant diversity losses and the collapse of forest structure (decrease of stem density, basal area, crown closure, crown cover, and dominant tree height). Our study underlines the need for shade certification schemes to include variables other than canopy cover and that the loss of species diversity in intensively managed coffee systems may jeopardize the sustainability of coffee production itself through the decrease of ecosystem resilience and disruption of ecosystem services related to coffee yield, such as pollination and pest control.     

Dietary-induced responses in the phagotrophic flagellate Oxyrrhis marina

Primary producers may be limited by different nutrients as well as by light availability, which in turn affects their quality as food for higher trophic levels. Typically, algae with high C:N and/or C:P ratios are low-quality food for consumers. Heterotrophic protists are important grazers on these autotrophes, but despite their importance as grazers, knowledge of food quality effects on heterotrophic protists is sparse. In the present study, we examined how differently grown Rhodomonas salina (nutrient replete, N-limited and P-limited) affected the phagotrophic flagellate Oxyrrhis marina. The functional response of O. marina (based on ingested biovolume) did not show significant differences between food sources, thus food uptake was independent of food quality. O. marina was weakly homoeostatic which means that its C:N:P ratio still reflected the elemental composition of its food to some extent. Food quality had a significantly negative effect on the numerical response of O. marina. Whereas N-limited R. salina and nutrient replete R. salina resulted in similar growth rates, P-limited algae had a significantly negative effect on the specific growth rate of O. marina. Hence, the lack of elemental phosphorus of O. marina feeding on P-limited algae caused a reduction in growth. Thus, despite their weaker homoeostasis, heterotrophic protists are also affected by high C:P food in a similar way to crustacean zooplankton.     

GENETIC PROGRAMMING: A NEW PARADIGM IN RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Genetic Programming (GP) is a domain‐independent evolutionary programming technique that evolves computer programs to solve, or approximately solve, problems. To verify GP's capability, a simple example with known relation in the area of symbolic regression, is considered first. GP is then utilized as a flow forecasting tool. A catchment in Singapore with a drainage area of about 6 km² is considered in this study. Six storms of different intensities and durations are used to train GP and then verify the trained GP. Analysis of the GP induced rainfall and runoff relationship shows that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is consistent with the hydrologic process. The result shows that the runoff prediction accuracy of symbolic regression based models, measured in terms of root mean square error and correlation coefficient, is reasonably high. Thus, GP induced rainfall runoff relationships can be a viable alternative to traditional rainfall runoff models.     

Optimisation of adjusted barrier management to improve glass eel migration at an estuarine barrier

Estuarine barriers may significantly reduce the upstream migration of diadromous fish species like the European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.). Previous research showed that limited barrier opening during tidal rise was a cost-efficient and effective mitigation option to improve upstream glass eel migration, without significant intrusion of sea water. This paper aims to optimise this adjusted barrier management to improve eel passage at a tidal barrier complex at the mouth of the River Yser, Flanders, Belgium, one of the most important migration routes for glass eel in Flanders. Specifically, three hypotheses were tested. The first hypothesis analysed the impact of the number of barriers opened on the upstream glass eel migration. The second hypothesis evaluated the relation between the size of the barrier opening and glass eel migration. Finally, we tested whether the suggested adjusted barrier management may lead to a significant increase in conductivity in the River Yser. Increased opening of one barrier appeared more efficient than opening several barriers slightly. Conductivity increased during periods of extreme drought and at base flow, but decreased within 24 h after the first peak flow. This indicates that adjusted barrier management does not entail salt intrusion in the Yser basin, as long as this management is not applied in extremely dry periods. Since the adjusted barrier management is easily implemented and could be applied on numerous tidal barriers, the presented results may contribute to restoration of eel populations worldwide and be of interest to a wide range of river managers and stakeholders.     

The effect of modelling expert knowledge and uncertainty on multicriteria decision making: a river management case study

To support decision making on complex environmental issues, models are often used to explore the potential impacts of different management alternatives on the environmental system. We explored how different model outcomes affect decision making. Two topics have our particular interest, namely (1) the influence of quantification of qualitative information on decision making, and (2) the influence of reflecting uncertainty in the model outcomes on decision making. We set up a survey, in which we use a case study describing a decision making situation in strategic river management. The survey was disseminated through the Internet. From the results we conclude that the quantification of information in itself does not necessarily change preferences, although the outcomes suggest that preferences converge when based on quantified information. When confronted with uncertainty information, respondents show a preference for the alternative with the smallest chance of negative impacts. The study shows that, whereas the modelling community often strives to provide the policy process with as good, and as detailed information as is possible, their assumption that this will automatically lead to ‘better’ decision making is not self-evident.     

The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters

Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Ni?o, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters.     

The global impact of ozone on agricultural crop yields under current and future air quality legislation

In this paper we evaluate the global impact of surface ozone on four types of agricultural crop. The study is based on modelled global hourly ozone fields for the year 2000 and 2030, using the global 1°×1° 2-way nested atmospheric chemical transport model (TM5). Projections for the year 2030 are based on the relatively optimistic “current legislation (CLE) scenario”, i.e. assuming that currently approved air quality legislation will be fully implemented by the year 2030, without a further development of new abatement policies. For both runs, the relative yield loss due to ozone damage is evaluated based on two different indices (accumulated concentration above a 40 ppbV threshold and seasonal mean daytime ozone concentration respectively) on a global, regional and national scale. The cumulative metric appears to be far less robust than the seasonal mean, while the seasonal mean shows satisfactory agreement with measurements in Europe, the US, China and Southern India and South-East Asia.Present day global relative yield losses are estimated to range between 7% and 12% for wheat, between 6% and 16% for soybean, between 3% and 4% for rice, and between 3% and 5% for maize (range resulting from different metrics used). Taking into account possible biases in our assessment, introduced through the global application of “western” crop exposure–response functions, and through model performance in reproducing ozone-exposure metrics, our estimates may be considered as being conservative.Under the 2030 CLE scenario, the global situation is expected to deteriorate mainly for wheat (additional 2–6% loss globally) and rice (additional 1–2% loss globally). India, for which no mitigation measures have been assumed by 2030, accounts for 50% of these global increase in crop yield loss. On a regional-scale, significant reductions in crop losses by CLE-2030 are only predicted in Europe (soybean) and China (wheat).Translating these assumed yield losses into total global economic damage for the four crops considered, using world market prices for the year 2000, we estimate an economic loss in the range $14–$26 billion. About 40% of this damage is occurring in China and India. Considering the recent upward trends in food prices, the ozone-induced damage to crops is expected to offset a significant portion of the GDP growth rate, especially in countries with an economy based on agricultural production.