Models for preserving species diversity with backup coverage

The problem of selecting land for preservation of species has been a rich and active area of research over the past two decades. Typically, reserve selection models have tried to maximize species diversity by preserving areas that contain the greatest number of species. However, several studies have shown that seldom do these species-rich areas contain the rarest species most in need of protection. Most reserve selection models seek to maximize diversity by choosing parcels so that all species are covered by or represented in at least one parcel. This approach would usually be expected to result in coverage by a single parcel for the rarest species, especially for those that do not coincide with more abundant species. It is precisely these rare species, however, that would be lost or whose survivability would be most challenged, if the single parcels in which they are represented became unavailable due to some unforeseen event. In this paper, we introduce to reserve selection models the concept of secondary, or backup, coverage of species. Briefly stated, a species is said to have backup representation in the system of reserves if it is covered by, or represented in, two or more parcels. Having backup coverage guarantees that every species is still covered in the event that a natural or man-made catastrophe makes a given parcel uninhabitable. The results show that backup coverage can be obtained at little additional cost (as expressed by the number of parcels selected). Bi-objective formulations that trade-off primary with backup coverage show that backup coverage can be guaranteed for larger numbers of species with little reduction in primary coverage.     

Time-dependent recordkeeping fatigue among youth completing health diaries of unintentional injuries

PROBLEM: Increasingly, investigators are asking youth to self-report daily activity patterns and health outcomes in diary studies. This study assesses recordkeeping fatigue with respect to data quality and event reporting among youth participating in a health diary study. METHOD: Unintentional injury data were collected during a 13-week longitudinal diary study of Ohio youth exposed to agricultural hazards. Two analyses were conducted using data from 2000. Analysis 1 examined trends in discernable recordkeeping errors (DREs) over the course of follow-up. Analysis 2 assessed trends in injury reporting over follow-up. RESULTS: The percentage of items containing a DRE showed a slight, non-significant decline throughout follow-up. Injury reporting declined significantly (p<0.001) over follow-up. SUMMARY: There was no compelling evidence of respondent fatigue with respect to DREs. The observed decline in injury reporting is problematic because estimates of youth injury incidence in health diary studies may vary depending upon the length of the follow-up period.     

Modelling radionuclide transport for time varying flow in a channel network

Water flowrates and flow directions may change over time in the subsurface for a number of reasons. In fractured rocks flow takes place in channels within fractures. Solutes are carried by the advective flow. In addition, solutes may diffuse in and out of stagnant waters in the rock matrix and other stagnant water regions. Sorbing species may sorb on fracture surfaces and on the micropore surfaces in the rock matrix. We present a method by which solute particles can be traced in flowing water undergoing changes in flowrate and direction in a complex channel network where the solutes can also interact with the rock by diffusion in the rock matrix. The novelty of this paper is handling of diffusion in the rock matrix under transient flow conditions. The diffusive processes are stochastic and it is not possible to follow a particle deterministically. The method therefore utilises the properties of a probability distribution function for a tracer moving in a fracture where matrix diffusion is active. The method is incorporated in a three dimensional channel network model. Particle tracking is used to trace out a multitude of flowpaths, each of which consists of a large number of channels within fractures. Along each channel the aperture and velocity as well as the matrix sorption properties can vary. An efficient method is presented whereby a particle can be followed along the variable property flowpath. For stationary flow conditions and a network of channels with advective flow and matrix diffusion, a simple analytical solution for the residence time distribution along each pathway can be used. Only two parameter groups need to be integrated along each path. For transient flow conditions, a time stepping procedure that incorporates a stochastic Monte-Carlo like method to follow the particles along the paths when flow conditions change is used. The method is fast and an example is used for illustrative purposes. It is exemplified by a case where land rises due to glacial rebound. It is shown that the effects of changing flowrates and directions can be considerable and that the diffusive migration in the matrix can have a dominating effect on the results.     

Development of an Ecologic Marine Classification in the New Zealand Region

We describe here the development of an ecosystem classification designed to underpin the conservation management of marine environments in the New Zealand region. The classification was defined using multivariate classification using explicit environmental layers chosen for their role in driving spatial variation in biologic patterns: depth, mean annual solar radiation, winter sea surface temperature, annual amplitude of sea surface temperature, spatial gradient of sea surface temperature, summer sea surface temperature anomaly, mean wave-induced orbital velocity at the seabed, tidal current velocity, and seabed slope. All variables were derived as gridded data layers at a resolution of 1 km. Variables were selected by assessing their degree of correlation with biologic distributions using separate data sets for demersal fish, benthic invertebrates, and chlorophyll-a. We developed a tuning procedure based on the Mantel test to refine the classification's discrimination of variation in biologic character. This was achieved by increasing the weighting of variables that play a dominant role and/or by transforming variables where this increased their correlation with biologic differences. We assessed the classification's ability to discriminate biologic variation using analysis of similarity. This indicated that the discrimination of biologic differences generally increased with increasing classification detail and varied for different taxonomic groups. Advantages of using a numeric approach compared with geographic-based (regionalisation) approaches include better representation of spatial patterns of variation and the ability to apply the classification at widely varying levels of detail. We expect this classification to provide a useful framework for a range of management applications, including providing frameworks for environmental monitoring and reporting and identifying representative areas for conservation.     

Sorption of heavy metals in strongly weathered soils: an overview

Current knowledge of sorption processes in tropical soils is reviewed. Landscapes throughout the tropics are dominated by oxisols which occupy extensive areas of potentially highly productive soils. These soils are dominated by low-activity sesquioxide minerals and clays that have variable charge surfaces. The limited information on tropical soils available suggests that the composition of the ambient soil solution can influence sorption through changes in particle surface-charge density. Thus the observed decrease in sorption in the presence of divalent index cations may be related to the effect of ionic charge on the double-layer thickness which is manifested through a change in surface-charge characteristics. However, much work needs to be done to differentiate the effect of cation charge on surface-charge density from the competitive effect between the index cation and heavy-metal ions for the sorption sites. The effects of inorganic and organic ligands on adsorption of Cd by variable charge surfaces are also reviewed.     

A 396-YEAR RECONSTRUCTION OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN JORDAN1

ABSTRACT: Water resources are the lifeblood of the Near East region. Careful planning and management of water resources in dry land regions requires information on the likelihood of extreme events, especially prolonged drought. It is essential to understand the variability of climate on time scales of decades to centuries to assign reasonable probabilities to such events. Tree-ring analysis is one way to increase our knowledge of the climate variability beyond the short period covered by the instrumental data. In this paper, we reconstruct October-May precipitation from a Juniperus phoenicia tree-ring chronology in southern Jordan to gain a long-term (A.D. 1600–1995) perspective on runs of dry years and on time series fluctuations in precipitation averaged over several years. The reconstruction equation derived by regression of log-transformed precipitation on tree-ring indices explains 44 percent of the variance of observed precipitation. The longest reconstructed drought, as defined by consecutive years below a threshold of 217.4 mm, was four years, compared with three years for the 1946–95 instrumental data. A Monte Carlo analysis designed to account for uncertainty in the reconstruction indicates a lower than 50 percent chance that the region has experienced drought longer than five years in the past 400 years.     

Quantifying ‘geographic proximity’: Experiences from the United Kingdom's National Industrial Symbiosis Programme

Geographic proximity is said to be a key characteristic of the resource reuse and recycling practice known as industrial symbiosis. To date, however, proximity of symbiont companies has remained an abstract characteristic. By conducting a statistical analysis of synergies facilitated by the United Kingdom's National Industrial Symbiosis Programme during their first five years of operation, this article attempts to quantify geographic proximity and in the process provide practitioners with an insight into the movement trends of different waste streams. Among other it was found that the median distance materials travelled within a symbiotic relationship is 20.4 miles. It is argued that quantitative information of this form is of practical value for the effective deployment of industrial symbiosis practitioners and wider resource efficiency planning. The results and discussion presented within this article are specific to industrial symbiosis opportunities facilitated within the United Kingdom; the methodology and assessment of resource movement influences are, however, expected to be relevant to all countries in which industrial activity is similarly mature and diversified.