基于蒙特卡罗模拟的冻雨条件下供电中断风险评价

为减少冻雨造成的危害和损失,提高应对能力,利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法给出了供电中断风险评价的定量方法.首先根据冻雨条件下覆冰在输电线路上的增长模型以及输电线路的设计标准得到蒙特卡罗极限方程,然后利用不同的随机抽样方法得到随机数,再代入蒙特卡罗极限方程,多次模拟后得到冻雨条件下供电中断风险评价的定量结果.将该定量方法应用于湖南省长沙市,得出当地冻雨灾害导致供电中断后果的概率为0.079 8.研究表明,定量方法有效地得出了冻雨条件下供电中断的风险值,可以为风险管理和决策系统提供支持.     

基于WinQSB的多阶段应急决策研究

建立应急预案是应对突发事件最有效的方法.为解决应急预案不够完备、灵活性差等问题,提出了多阶段应急决策的分析方法.通过对突发事件的风险分析,研究不同场景、不同阶段下应急决策的制定方法,应用WinQSB提供的决策树模型,计算得到不同场景下的可能决策结果.运用多阶段情景决策方法对某市一化工厂的泄漏事故进行实例计算,得出了合理的决策结果,对紧急情况下的现场应急有重要辅助作用,提高了事故现场应急决策的效率和准确性,有效地控制事故风险,减少事故损失,提高决策者应对突发事件的能力.     

基于事故健康后果的应急疏散策略评估

依据事故的健康后果,评估应急响应策略(ERP).将研究区域分为形状和大小各异的节点,节点之间通过连线连接,用来表示该区域的道路系统.将人员在节点间的转移作为随机过程,采用离散随机Markov模型模拟疏散者的运动.对Markov模型求解,根据平均剂量估计人员的健康后果,评估ERP的有效性.针对不同事故极端现象对人员的影响方式,根据剂量-反应关系计算疏散过程中人员受到的健康影响(死亡或受伤等),得出事故的健康后果.依据不同ERP的健康后果来评价其优劣,优化应急策略.     

Numerical simulation of the large-scale malignant environmental pollution incident

With the development of economy, the expansion in industrial production resulted in the increase in the number of malignant environmental pollution incidents. The dispersion of toxic gaseous materials was chosen for study in detail, which took the ‘12.23’ Kaixian blowout accident in Chongqing as an example. This paper firstly reviewed the ‘12.23’ Kaixian blowout accident. Then, the physical boundary conditions including initial conditions were outlined to form an integrated mathematical problem. Thirdly, the blowout accident was simulated for a period of 5 h. In term of criteria for acute poisoning, simulation results were analyzed using the concentration slices that can serve for the decision-making. Finally, based on the analysis of simulation result, four important conclusions were put forward that can be used for the design of emergency evacuation routes.     

模糊群体决策方法在应急决策中的应用

在分析应急预案内容及应急决策特点的基础上,针对应急决策中许多信息无法定量描述的问题,运用模糊集合理论,建立了在事故灾难复杂环境下对应急决策进行动态调整的模糊群体决策方法。该方法包括构造模糊偏好关系、设计备选方案选择的多属性群体决策模型和群体决策一致性的检验标准等内容,可以辅助应急决策者选择最佳决策方案。通过实证表明,该计算方法及实用效果,为突发事故应急预案的制订和事故现场的应急决策提供参考。     

利用糖蜜废水生产微生物絮凝剂及条件优化和效果实验研究

用糖蜜废水取代葡萄糖作为发酵培养基中的碳源和能源培养微生物絮凝剂产生菌Pseudomonas alcaligenesPS-25。通过单因素试验和正交试验得到该菌株产絮凝剂的最佳培养条件:糖蜜废水COD浓度5 000 mg/L、培养基初始pH值6.5、接种量5%(体积比)、温度30℃、培养时间为72 h、摇床转速160 r/min,在此条件下,PS-25所产絮凝剂对高岭土悬浊液絮凝率达96.75%,并且对多种废水都有较好的净化效果,对废水中浊度和色度的去除率分别在90%和80%以上,COD去除率在73.60%～91.10%。研究表明,用糖蜜废水培养PS-25生产微生物絮凝剂处理废水是完全可行的,从而实现废物的资源化利用。     

Pollution influences on atmospheric composition and chemistry at high northern latitudes: Boreal and California forest fire emissions

We analyze detailed atmospheric gas/aerosol composition data acquired during the 2008 NASA ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) airborne campaign performed at high northern latitudes in spring (ARCTAS-A) and summer (ARCTAS-B) and in California in summer (ARCTAS-CARB). Biomass burning influences were widespread throughout the ARCTAS campaign. MODIS data from 2000 to 2009 indicated that 2008 had the second largest fire counts over Siberia and a more normal Canadian boreal forest fire season. Near surface arctic air in spring contained strong anthropogenic signatures indicated by high sulfate. In both spring and summer most of the pollution plumes transported to the Arctic region were from Europe and Asia and were present in the mid to upper troposphere and contained a mix of forest fire and urban influences. The gas/aerosol composition of the high latitude troposphere was strongly perturbed at all altitudes in both spring and summer. The reactive nitrogen budget was balanced with PAN as the dominant component. Mean ozone concentrations in the high latitude troposphere were only minimally perturbed (<5 ppb), although many individual pollution plumes sampled in the mid to upper troposphere, and mixed with urban influences, contained elevated ozone (ΔO₃/ΔCO = 0.11 ± 0.09 v/v). Emission and optical characteristics of boreal and California wild fires were quantified and found to be broadly comparable. Greenhouse gas emission estimates derived from ARCTAS-CARB data for the South Coast Air Basin of California show good agreement with state inventories for CO₂ and N₂O but indicate substantially larger emissions of CH₄. Simulations by multiple models of transport and chemistry were found to be broadly consistent with observations with a tendency towards under prediction at high latitudes.     

Evaluation of methane oxidation activity in waste biocover soil during landfill stabilization

The results of a nationwide survey of uranium in Swiss drinking water are reported. Elevated concentrations of uranium in groundwater are found mainly in the alpine regions and can be traced back to the geology of the bedrock. Water sources were systematically surveyed and analysed for the presence of Li, B, Si, Sc, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Sr, Cd, Sn, Sb, Ba, Tl, Pb and U and the results were analysed to determine if any correlation with uranium concentration was apparent. No correlation was found. The results are interpreted in relation to the current WHO guideline and those of other countries with a view to determining which areas would be affected if a maximum value were to be adopted and which areas require further investigation. Uranium content varied considerably, from below the limit of detection to almost 100 μg L⁻¹. Of the 5548 data samples, 98% are below the 2004 WHO provisional guideline value of 15 μg L⁻¹ and 99.7% below the revised (2011) value of 30 μg L⁻¹.     

一株产絮酵母菌废菌体对Cd~（2＋）的吸附特性

将一株产絮酵母菌（编号B-02号）发酵后的废菌体制成生物吸附剂,研究该生物吸附剂对废水中Cd2＋的生物吸附特性。结果表明：（1）pH值对Cd2＋会产生较大的影响,偏酸性（pH=4～6）条件利于吸附;该吸附剂对Cd2＋吸附速率较快,8～10 min就可达到吸附平衡;（2）吸附剂的吸附动力学符合二级动力学模型,吸附Cd2＋的实验数据对Langmuir等温式的拟合情况良好,吸附剂吸附Cd2＋的最大吸附量为70.752 mg/g。用0.5 mol/L HNO3对吸附Cd2＋的酵母菌进行解吸,解吸率可达89.7%。     

磁性LDH负铜催化剂的制备及其对直接青莲D-BL的脱色

实验以滴定共沉淀法制备Mg-Al LDH晶体包覆的Fe3O4颗粒,利用LDH的层间阴离子交换性使其吸附[Cu(C2O4)2]-络合离子,通过焙烧获得磁性焙烧态LDH载体的负铜催化剂。并通过SEM、X-Ray、FT-IR等方法以及静态实验,表征及考察了材料的物化特性及其直接性偶氮染料直接青莲的脱色性能。结果表明,材料对该染料废水有较强去处能力,且磁性良好易于分离回收;其最佳制备条件为用浓度为20 g/L的K2[Cu(C2O4)2]溶液改性一次,反应结束后于450℃下焙烧5 h;上述条件下制备的材料投加量为1 g/L、H2O2浓度为6.53 g/L、处理时间2 h,对200、300和500 mg/L浓度的模拟直接青莲D-BL染料废水去除率分别为99.62%、90.43%和81.92%。