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191.
Impact and adaptation opportunities for European agriculture in response to climatic change and variability 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Marco Moriondo Marco Bindi Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz M. Szwed A. Chorynski P. Matczak M. Radziejewski D. McEvoy Anita Wreford 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2010,15(7):657-679
Climate change, involving changes in mean climate and climatic variability, is expected to severely affect agriculture and
there is a need to assess its impact in order to define the appropriate adaptation strategies to cope with. In this paper,
we projected a scenario of European agriculture in a +2°C (above pre-industrial levels) world in order to assess the potential
effect of climatic change and variability and to test the effectiveness of different adaptation options. For this purpose,
the outputs of HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) were empirically downscaled for current climate (1975–2005) and a future
period (2030–2060), to feed a process-based crop simulation model, in order to quantify the impact of a changing climate on
agriculture emphasising the impact due to changes in the frequency of extreme events (heat waves and drought). The same climatic
dataset was used to compare the effectiveness of different adaptations to a warmer climate strategies including advanced or
delayed sowing time, shorter or longer cycle cultivar and irrigation. The results indicated that both changes in mean climate
and climate variability affected crop growth resulting in different crop fitting capacity to cope with climate change. This
capacity mainly depended on the crop type and the geographical area across Europe. A +2°C scenario had a higher impact on
crops cultivated over the Mediterranean basin than on those cultivated in central and northern Europe as a consequence of
drier and hotter conditions. In contrast, crops cultivated in Northern Europe generally exhibited higher than current yields,
as a consequence of wetter conditions, and temperatures closer to the optimum growing conditions. Simple, no-cost adaptation
options such as advancement of sowing dates or the use of longer cycle varieties may be implemented to tackle the expected
yield loss in southern Europe as well as to exploit possible advantages in northern regions. 相似文献
192.
Sílvia Bofill-Mas Byron Calgua Pilar Clemente-Casares Giuseppina La Rosa Marcello Iaconelli Michele Muscillo Saskia Rutjes Ana Maria de Roda Husman Andreas Grunert Ingeburg Gräber Marco Verani Annalaura Carducci Miquel Calvo Peter Wyn-Jones Rosina Girones 《Food and environmental virology》2010,2(2):101-109
The presence of human adenoviruses (HAdV) in recreational water might cause disease in the population upon exposure. HAdV detected by PCR could also serve as indicators of the virological water quality. In order to assess the applicability of HAdV to the evaluation of the faecal contamination in European bathing waters, a real-time quantitative PCR assay was used for the quantification of HAdV in 132 samples collected from 24 different recreational marine and freshwater sites in nine European countries. Selected samples presenting positive nested PCR results for HAdV were analyzed using quantitative PCR and 80 samples from a total of 132 produced quantitative results with mean values of 3.2 × 102 per 100 ml of water, being human adenovirus 41 the most prevalent serotype between the samples where adenovirus was typified. HAdV were quantified in samples from all 15 surveillance laboratories. Statistical analysis showed no homogeneous linear relation between HAdV and E. coli, intestinal enterococci or somatic coliphages concentrations in the tested samples when considering all the data together. Significant correlations between HAdV and at least one of the other indicators were observed only when data from individual laboratories were considered. The quantification of HAdV may provide complementary information in relation to the use of bacterial standards in the control of water quality in bathing water. 相似文献
193.
Porta M Grimalt JO Jariod M Ruiz L Marco E López T Malats N Puigdomènech E Zumeta E;PANKRAS II Study Group 《Environment international》2007,33(7):946-954
We aimed to analyse the influence of cholesterol and triglycerides, and of tobacco, coffee and alcohol consumption upon correlations between serum concentrations of organochlorine compounds (OCs) in patients with exocrine pancreatic cancer (EPC). Incident cases of EPC diagnosed in eastern Spain were prospectively identified (N=144). OCs were analysed by high-resolution gas chromatography with electron-capture detection. A strong correlation was observed between hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (beta-HCH) (Spearman's rho=0.758). beta-HCH showed rho>0.4 with p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDE, PCB138 and PCB153 (all p<0.001). Some correlations among compounds were slightly affected by tobacco, coffee or alcohol consumption. We observed a striking diversity of correlation patterns by strata of cholesterol and triglycerides. Most correlations were higher in the lowest category of triglycerides than in the lowest category of cholesterol. Most coefficients above 0.7 were seen in the lowest category of triglycerides (e.g., OC pairs p,p'-DDT and HCB, p,p'-DDT and beta-HCH, p,p'-DDE and beta-HCH, or HCB and beta-HCH). Correlations among OCs may be stronger when concentrations of triglycerides are low than when they are high. This is compatible with a dilution in the early phases of cancer and with a concentration effect as triglycerides become lower in the advanced phases of the disease. 相似文献
194.
Celso Markowitsch Jose Luce M. Brandão Torres Marco Aurélio Mata Gonçalves Torres Regina Tomoko Shirasuna Daniela Aparecida Farias Nelson Augusto dos SantosJr. Maria Tereza Grombone-Guaratini 《Chemoecology》2016,26(6):235-246
Merostachys riedeliana Rupr. is a native and overabundant bamboo species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Moderate to strong allelopathic activity may be one mechanism that explains this super-dominance and the changes in structure and composition of forest areas occupied by bamboo. This study evaluated the phytotoxic effect of M. riedeliana extracts and fractions and identified their putative allelochemicals. We investigated the presence of allelochemicals in soil collected from stands occupied by M. riedeliana. Furthermore, we evaluated the putative effect of tree allelochemicals, individually and combined, on germination and growth. The aqueous extract of leaves and its ethyl acetate fraction presented the highest inhibitory effects on seed germination and seedling growth. The effect of the extracts and fractions on the target species was species-specific. Neither the individual nor the combined phenolic acids significantly inhibited seed germination; however, a pronounced growth inhibition was observed in M. bimucronata seedlings treated with vanillic acid and in E. verna and M. bimucronata seedlings treated with combined phenolic acids. Isovitexin, vitexin, isoorientin, orientin, and their O-glycoside derivatives, the lactonic dimer of the p-hydroxybenzoic acid and 3,4-methylenedioxymandelic acid were identified in the aqueous extracts and ethyl acetate fraction by Liquid Chromatography-Diode Array Dectector/Electrospray Ionization/Mass Spectrometry (LC-DAD/ESI–MS/MS). The Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometer (GC–MS) profile of the same extract and fraction showed the presence of benzoic, benzeneacetic, salicylic, p-hydroxybenzoic, p-hydroxyphenylacetic, vanillic, p-coumaric, protocatechuic, syringic, gallic, m-coumaric vanillylmandelic, 4-methylmandelic, 3,4-methylenedioxymandelic and trans-ferulic acids. The p-benzoic acid and the apigenin 6-C-glucoside (isovitexin) were identified in the soil extract collected from under bamboo-growing areas. Even though laboratory bioassays are not completely predictive of the allelopathic effects that occur in nature, the results of this study provide preliminary evidence of allelopathy as a possible species-specific inhibition mechanism of native species that explain the impoverishment of floristic richness and the functional groups in areas where M. riedeliana is overabundant. 相似文献
195.
Nicoletta Calace Nicola Cardellicchio Silvia Ciardullo Massimiliana Pietrantonio Marco Pietroletti 《毒物与环境化学》2013,95(3):549-564
The spatial distribution of selected metals (Fe, Ni, Mn, Zn, Cu, Pb, Hg and Cd) and their partition in the different chemical forms (speciation) were determined in benthic sediments from Mar Piccolo, Taranto (Ionic Sea, southern Italy). The aim of this study was to assess the degree of sediment contamination and bioavailability of metals, very important for Italian mussel culture, in a semi-enclosed marine ecosystem. In sediments, grain size distribution, total organic carbon (TOC), and humic (HA) and fulvic (FA) acids contents were also determined. The compounds TOC, HA and FA, in fact, have a great influence on metal complexation. High concentrations of copper, lead, zinc and mercury were found, especially in sediments of the first inlet of Mar Piccolo. Statistical analysis of results shows significant correlation among Cu, Pb and Zn concentrations and the influence of organic matter on the sediment distribution of Cu, Pb and Zn. Metal speciation analysis, carried out with sequential extraction method, shows that Fe and Ni are present in sediments mainly as sulphides. Mn and Pb are present principally in an ion-exchangeable form or bound to carbonate and Cu is associated to organic matter. Metal pollution index (MPI), calculated as a weighed mean of the metal contamination factors in each station, shows that with regard to Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn, some stations investigated are unpolluted (MPI <1), whereas in other areas, pollution level is not very high. On the contrary, for mercury, the pollution level in the first inlet of the basin is very high. 相似文献
196.
Cécile Fauvelot Federica Costantini Massimiliano Virgilio Marco Abbiati 《Marine Biology》2012,159(12):2797-2807
Human-made structures are increasingly built in marine coastal habitats for a variety of purposes. Offshore oil and gas production platforms are among the largest examples. Yet, biological effects of these increasing density artificial substrata are under evaluated. The objective of our study is to investigate the possible role of offshore platforms in modifying the genetic composition of populations of natural rocky shores species. The serpulid Pomatoceros triqueter was used as a model, and genetic variation was assessed using a 419?bp fragment of the mtDNA COI gene in samples collected on eleven offshore gas platforms, on one coastal buoy on the sandy shore and in four sites located on natural rocky shores in the Adriatic Sea. Deep phylogenetic lineages were uncovered over all samples. Nucleotide diversity and mean number of pairwise differences among haplotypes were significantly smaller in offshore platform samples compared to rocky shores samples. No significant genetic structure was observed over all samples. We found direct evidence of lower genetic diversity on platforms confirming that, although artificial structures attract and support species typical of hard bottoms, they are not analogues of natural rocky habitats. 相似文献
197.
Fish dispersal in fragmented landscapes: a modeling framework for quantifying the permeability of structural barriers 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Dispersal is a key determinant of the spatial distribution and abundance of populations, but human-made fragmentation can create barriers that hinder dispersal and reduce population viability. This study presents a modeling framework based on dispersal kernels (modified Laplace distributions) that describe stream fish dispersal in the presence of obstacles to passage. We used mark-recapture trials to quantify summer dispersal of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in four streams crossed by a highway. The analysis identified population heterogeneity in dispersal behavior, as revealed by the presence of a dominant sedentary component (48-72% of all individuals) characterized by short mean dispersal distance (<10 m), and a secondary mobile component characterized by longer mean dispersal distance (56-1086 m). We did not detect evidence of barrier effects on dispersal through highway crossings. Simulation of various plausible scenarios indicated that detectability of barrier effects was strongly dependent on features of sampling design, such as spatial configuration of the sampling area, barrier extent, and sample size. The proposed modeling framework extends conventional dispersal kernels by incorporating structural barriers. A major strength of the approach is that ecological process (dispersal model) and sampling design (observation model) are incorporated simultaneously into the analysis. This feature can facilitate the use of prior knowledge to improve sampling efficiency of mark-recapture trials in movement studies. Model-based estimation of barrier permeability and its associated uncertainty provides a rigorous approach for quantifying the effect of barriers on stream fish dispersal and assessing population dynamics of stream fish in fragmented landscapes. 相似文献
198.
Molina-Montenegro MA Carrasco-Urra F Rodrigo C Convey P Valladares F Gianoli E 《Conservation biology》2012,26(4):717-723
Few non-native species have colonized Antarctica, although increased human activity and accelerated climate change may increase their number, distributional range, and effects on native species on the continent. We searched 13 sites on the maritime Antarctic islands and 12 sites on the Antarctic Peninsula for annual bluegrass (Poa annua), a non-native flowering plant. We also evaluated the possible effects of competition between P. annua and 2 vascular plants native to Antarctica, Antarctic pearlwort (Colobanthus quitensis) and Antarctic hairgrass (Deschampsia antarctica). We grew the native species in experimental plots with and without annual bluegrass under conditions that mimicked the Antarctic environment. After 5 months, we measured photosynthetic performance on the basis of chlorophyll fluorescence and determined total biomass of both native species. We found individual specimens of annual bluegrass at 3 different sites on the Antarctic Peninsula during the 2007-2008 and 2009-2010 austral summers. The presence of bluegrass was associated with a statistically significant reduction in biomass of pearlwort and hairgrass, whereas the decrease in biomass of bluegrass was not statistically significant. Similarly, the presence of bluegrass significantly reduced the photosynthetic performance of the 2 native species. Sites where bluegrass occurred were close to major maritime routes of scientific expeditions and of tourist cruises to Antarctica. We believe that if current levels of human activity and regional warming persist, more non-native plant species are likely to colonize the Antarctic and may affect native species. 相似文献
199.
Zooplankton encounter rates are dependent not only on both sensory and swimming performances of the organisms, but also on the distribution pattern of food particles. Increasing evidences indicate that, in natural conditions, phytoplankton is often aggregated in thin layers. In the present contribution we investigate the concomitant effects of motion complexity and habitat fragmentation on the number of encounters realised by virtual continuously moving copepods adopting different motion strategies. Our simulated organisms move in an environment characterised by the presence of thin patches of phytoplankton, and their swim follows five motion rules (pure random walk, correlated random walk with three different time scales, self-avoiding random walk), each characterised by a typical value of the three-dimensional fractal dimension D3D. Compared to a uniform distribution, for a given motion rule the clustering of prey particles increases the variance of encounters, while no remarkable effect is reported in the average number of particles intercepted. These results broaden our understanding of the behavioural efficiency in freely swimming zooplankters and improve our knowledge of the functioning of aquatic systems. 相似文献
200.
Traditionally, the dynamics of community assembly has been analyzed by means of deterministic models of differential equations. Despite the theoretical advances provided by such models, they are restricted to questions about community-wide features. The individual-based modeling offers an opportunity to link bionomic features to patterns at the community scale, allowing us to understand how trait-based assembly rules can arise by dynamical processes. The present paper introduces an individual-based model of community assembly, and discusses some of the major advantages and drawbacks of this approach. The model was framed to deal with predation among size-structured populations, incorporating allometric constraints to energetic requirements, movement, life-history features and interaction relationships among individuals. A protocol of assembly procedure is proposed, in which a period of intense species introductions is followed by a period without introductions. The resultant communities did not present any pattern of trait over-dispersion, meaning that the multivariate distances of bionomic features among co-occurring species were neither larger nor more regular than expected in a random collection of species. It suggests a weak influence of interspecific interactions in the model environment and individualistic rules of coexistence, driven mainly by the spatial structure. This highlights that trait over-dispersion and resource partitioning should not be considered a necessary condition for coexistence, even in communities entirely structured by internal processes like predation and competition. 相似文献