Multi-metric evaluation of the models WARM,CropSyst, and WOFOST for rice

WARM (Water Accounting Rice Model) simulates paddy rice (Oryza sativa L.), based on temperature-driven development and radiation-driven crop growth. It also simulates: biomass partitioning, floodwater effect on temperature, spikelet sterility, floodwater and chemicals management, and soil hydrology. Biomass estimates from WARM were evaluated and compared with the ones from two generic crop models (CropSyst, WOFOST). The test-area was the Po Valley (Italy). Data collected at six sites from 1989 to 2004 from rice crops grown under flooded and non-limiting conditions were split into a calibration (to estimate some model parameters) and a validation set. For model evaluation, a fuzzy-logic based multiple-metrics indicator (MQI) was used: 0 (best) ≤ MQI ≤ 1 (worst). WARM estimates compared well with the actual data (mean MQI = 0.037 against 0.167 and 0.173 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). On an average, the three models performed similarly for individual validation metrics such as modelling efficiency (EF > 0.90) and correlation coefficient (R > 0.98). WARM performed best in a weighed measure of the Akaike Information Criterion: (worst) 0<wk<1$0<w_k<1$ (best), considering estimation accuracy and number of parameters required to achieve it (mean wk=0.983$w_k=0.983$ against 0.007 and ∼0.000 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). WARM results were sensitive to 30% of the model parameters (ratio being lower with both CropSyst, <10%, and WOFOST, <20%), but appeared the easiest model to use because of the lowest number of crop parameters required (10 against 15 and 34 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). This study provides a concrete example of the possibilities offered using a range of assessment metrics to evaluate model estimates, predictive capabilities, and complexity.     

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 × 2 × 2 × 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5–13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection.     

The effects of the nitrofuran furaltadone on Ulva lactuca

The use of pharmaceuticals in the food production industry as prophylatic and therapeutic agents is necessary to promote animal health, but may entail significant consequences to natural ecosystems, especially in the cases of overdosing and use of banned pharmaceuticals. The vast effects that antibiotics released into the environment have on non-target organisms are already under the scope of researchers but little attention has been given to primary producers such as macroalgae. The present study assessed furaltadone’s, an antibacterial agent illegally used for veterinary purposes, uptake capacity by Ulva lactuca and its effect in the growth of this cosmopolitan macroalgae. Differences in macroalgal growth were shown when submitted to prophylactic and therapeutic concentrations of furaltadone in the water (16 and 32 μg mL⁻¹, respectively). The therapeutic concentration caused higher growth impairment than the prophylactic treatment did, with 87.5% and 58% reductions respectively. Furthermore, together with data collected from the accumulation assays, with values of internal concentrations as high as 18.84 μg g⁻¹ WW, suggest that the macroalgae U. lactuca should be included in field surveys as a biomonitor for the detection of nitrofurans.     

Seasonal and spatial variability of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in vegetation and cow milk from a high altitude pasture in the Italian Alps

The seasonal and spatial variability of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in vegetation and cow milk was studied in a high altitude pasture in the Alps (1900 m a.s.l.). PCB contamination in vegetation shows a concentration peak in June, which is mainly interpreted as the consequence of a temporary PCB enrichment of the air layer above the ground due to net emission fluxes from the soil. A three compartment dynamic model was developed to test this hypothesis. The North/South enrichment factor in the vegetation was 1.5-1.6 for penta- and hexa-substituted congeners and 1.7 for hepta- and octa-PCBs, according to the effect of temperature on compounds having higher K_oa values. Milk concentrations followed the vegetation seasonal trend. The congener abundance in milk is in agreement with the biotransformation susceptibility, absorption efficiency and residence time of the different congeners in dairy cows.     

Evaluating land cover change and its impact on hydrological regime in Upper Shire river catchment, Malawi

A study was conducted to investigate hydrological impacts of land cover changes in the degradation of the hydrological on flow regimes of the Upper Shire river, Malawi. Remote sensing techniques were used to inventory temporal changes of land cover changes in the catchment. Hydrological data were analyzed to reveal the alterations and trends for two periods; 1989 and 2002. The study revealed significant changes in magnitude and direction that have occurred in the catchment between 1989 and 2002, mainly in areas of human habitation. Trends in land cover change in the Upper Shire river catchment depict land cover transition from woodlands to mostly cultivated/grazing and built-up areas. The land cover mapping showed that 23% of the land was covered by agricultural land in 1989. Subsistence agricultural area has increased by 18%, occupying 41% of the study area in 2002. The effects of the derived land cover changes on river flow in the Upper Shire river were investigated using the semi distributed soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. River flows were found to be highly variable and sensitive to land cover changes. Simulation results show that 2002 land cover data produces higher flow peaks and faster travel times compared to the 1989 land cover data. The changes detected indicate the effects of land use pressure in the catchment. The study highlights the importance of considering effects of land use and land cover changes on ecosystems, and water resources for an informed decision on proper catchment planning and management.     

Material and energy recovery in integrated waste management systems: project overview and main results

This paper describes the context, the basic assumptions and the main findings of a joint research project aimed at identifying the optimal breakdown between material recovery and energy recovery from municipal solid waste (MSW) in the framework of integrated waste management systems (IWMS). The project was carried out from 2007 to 2009 by five research groups at Politecnico di Milano, the Universities of Bologna and Trento, and the Bocconi University (Milan), with funding from the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR). Since the optimization of IWMSs by analytical methods is practically impossible, the search for the most attractive strategy was carried out by comparing a number of relevant recovery paths from the point of view of mass and energy flows, technological features, environmental impact and economics. The main focus has been on mature processes applicable to MSW in Italy and Europe. Results show that, contrary to a rather widespread opinion, increasing the source separation level (SSL) has a very marginal effects on energy efficiency. What does generate very significant variations in energy efficiency is scale, i.e. the size of the waste-to-energy (WTE) plant. The mere value of SSL is inadequate to qualify the recovery system. The energy and environmental outcome of recovery depends not only on "how much" source separation is carried out, but rather on "how" a given SSL is reached.     

Precision determination for the dynamic respirometric index (DRI) method used for biological stability evaluation on municipal solid waste and derived products

Dynamic respiration index (DRI) is an effective respirometric method to measure the biological stability of municipal solid waste (MSW). It allows testing MSW biological stability under standardized conditions and is now used as a routine analytical method. However, the method needs to be studied for precision parameters to ensure the quality of results generated.This work reports on a DRI validation study, detecting repeatability (r) and reproducibility limits (R). To perform the study, 4-6 Italian laboratories took part in an interlaboratory test for the validation of the DRI method on four different municipal solid wastes from different mechanical-biological treatment full-scale plants. Precision values (r and R) of DRI, expressed as relative standard deviation, were in the range of 3.6% and 15.5%, and were acceptable when compared with previous data obtained in another respirometric test. On the other hand, no regressions were found between r and R, and DRI, and as a consequence prediction of precision values was not possible a priori for different DRI levels, unless the same typology of waste was considered.     

The evaluation of stability during the composting of different starting materials: comparison of chemical and biological parameters

Three blends formed by: (i) food processing waste (CP(FP)), (ii) waste water sewage sludge (CP(WW)), and (iii) their mixture (CP(FP+WW)), blended with tree pruning as bulking agent, were composted over 3 months. During composting the blends were monitored for the main physical-chemical characteristics: temperature, oxygen saturation level (O(2)%), pH, total and volatile solids, total organic carbon, and organic nitrogen (N(org)). In addition to the main parameters, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the inorganic nitrogen and the Oxygen Uptake Rate (OUR) were monitored. All the mixtures easily reached a peak temperature around 70°C, related to the lowest O(2)%. After 90 d, CP(FP), CP(FP+WW), and CP(WW) showed an organic matter mineralization of 43%, 35% and 33%, respectively; CP(FP) fitted an exponential model while both CP(FP+WW), and CP(WW) fitted a logistic model. During composting an OUR reduction of 79%, 78% and 73% was registered in CP(FP), CP(FP+WW), and CP(WW), respectively; the OUR successfully fitted the adopted exponential model and well reflected the stabilization process in time. The N(org) recovery at the end of the process was positive only in CP(WW) (11.6%). The DOC significantly decreased during the composting process but did not successfully fit any model. The mineral nitrogen did not follow the typical pattern with NH(4)(+) disappearance and NO(3)(-) accumulation. Strong NO(3)(-) losses were evident in all blends, while NH(4)(+) accumulations were detectable only in CP(FP), and CP(FP+WW). The NH(4)(+)/NO(3)(-) ratio did not satisfactorily reflect the composting process over time. The comparison of the first order (exponential) and logistic (sigmoidal) models applied to the OUR and OM course highlights the role of mineral nitrogen as limiting factor during composting of the more stabilized sludge.     

Assessing the impact of Cross Compliance measures on nitrogen fluxes from European farmlands with DNDC-EUROPE

We investigated the effects of the agricultural Cross Compliance measures for European cultivated lands, focusing on nitrogen (N) fluxes from corn fields. Four scenarios have been designed according to some conservation farming practices, namely no-till, max manure, catch crop and N splitting. Results indicated that (1) in the no-till scenario the N₂O fluxes are decreased during the first simulated years, with a return to default fluxes in following years; no-till particularly decreased N₂O emission in the dryer and colder simulation spatial units (HSMUs); (2) the no-till and the N splitting scenarios slightly increased the N surplus because of a decrease in plant uptake; (3) introducing a rotation with alfalfa decreased the N leaching in the corn crops following the catch crops; and (4) the application of fertilizer and manure during the cold and wet seasons led to an increase of N leaching.     

Validating a nondestructive optical method for apportioning colored particulate matter into black carbon and additional components

Exposure of black carbon (BC) is associated with a variety of adverse health outcomes. A number of optical methods for estimating BC on Teflon filters have been adopted but most assume all light absorption is due to BC while other sources of colored particulate matter exist. Recently, a four-wavelength-optical reflectance measurement for distinguishing second hand cigarette smoke (SHS) from soot-BC was developed (Brook et al., 2010; Lawless et al., 2004). However, the method has not been validated for soot-BC nor SHS and little work has been done to look at the methodological issues of the optical reflectance measurements for samples that could have SHS, BC, and other colored particles. We refined this method using a lab-modified integrating sphere with absorption measured continuously from 350 nm to 1000 nm. Furthermore, we characterized the absorption spectrum of additional components of particulate matter (PM) on PM(2.5) filters including ammonium sulfate, hematite, goethite, and magnetite. Finally, we validate this method for BC by comparison to other standard methods. Use of synthesized data indicates that it is important to optimize the choice of wavelengths to minimize computational errors as additional components (more than 2) are added to the apportionment model of colored components. We found that substantial errors are introduced when using 4 wavelengths suggested by Lawless et al. to quantify four substances, while an optimized choice of wavelengths can reduce model-derived error from over 10% to less than 2%. For environmental samples, the method was sensitive for estimating airborne levels of BC and SHS, but not mass loadings of iron oxides and sulfate. Duplicate samples collected in NYC show high reproducibility (points consistent with a 1:1 line, R(2) = 0.95). BC data measured by this method were consistent with those measured by other optical methods, including Aethalometer and Smoke-stain Reflectometer (SSR); although the SSR looses sensitivity at filter loadings above 90 ng/mm(2). Furthermore, positive correlations (R(2) = 0.7) were observed between EC measured by NIOSH Method 5040 on quartz filters and BC measured in co-located Teflon filter samples collected from both heating and non-heating seasons. Overall, the validation data demonstrates the usefulness of this method to evaluate BC from archived Teflon filters while potentially providing additional component information.