Hierarchical modeling of seed variety yields and decision making for future planting plans

Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the twenty first century. This paper addresses the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision making framework. Specifically, a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting crop yield (the yield of different seed varieties of the same crop) is introduced. This prediction mechanism is then integrated with a weather forecasting model and three different approaches for decision making under uncertainty to select seed varieties for planting so as to balance yield maximization and risk. The model was applied to the problem of soybean variety selection given in the 2016 Syngenta Crop Challenge. The prediction model achieved a median absolute error of 235 kg/ha and thus provides good estimates for input into the decision models. The decision models identified the selection of soybean varieties that appropriately balance yield and risk as a function of the farmer’s risk aversion level. More generally, the models can support farmers in decision making about which seed varieties to plant.     

Founder need to belong,tertius iungens orientation and new venture performance

In this study, we examine the role of founders' need to belong and tertius iungens orientation (i.e., the tendency of bringing people together and coordinating among others) in the context of new ventures. We propose and document evidence that a founder's tendency to engage in tertius iungens oriented networking is positively associated with new venture performance. We also reveal that a founder's need to belong is a significant motivational antecedent of the founder's tertius iungens orientation. Further, the need to belong–networking orientation linkage is stronger for founders in new ventures at the early product development stage than those at the late product development stage. We tested our hypotheses using survey data collected with a two‐wave sample of new ventures in China. We discuss the theoretical significance of studying the need to belong and tertius iungens orientation for social networks and entrepreneurship literatures, as well as the practical implications for managing a successful new venture.     

Controls on vegetation structure in Southwestern ponderosa pine forests, 1941 and 2004

Long-term studies can broaden our ecological understanding and are particularly important when examining contingent effects that involve changes to dominance by long-lived species. Such a change occurred during the last century in Southwestern (USA) ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests. We used five livestock grazing exclosures established in 1912 to quantify vegetation structure in 1941 and 2004. Our objectives were to (1) assess the effects of historical livestock grazing on overstory structure and age distribution, (2) assess the effects of recent livestock grazing and overstory on understory vegetation, and (3) quantify and explain changes in understory vegetation between 1941 and 2004. In 1941, canopy cover of tree regeneration was significantly higher inside exclosures. In 2004, total tree canopy cover was twice as high, density was three times higher, trees were smaller, and total basal area was 40% higher inside exclosures. Understory species density, herbaceous plant density, and herbaceous cover were negatively correlated with overstory vegetation in both years. Most understory variables did not differ between grazing treatments in 1941 but were lower inside exclosures in 2004. Differences between grazing treatments disappeared once overstory effects were accounted for, indicating that they were due to the differential overstory response to historical livestock grazing practices. Between 1941 and 2004, species density declined by 34%, herbaceous plant density by 37%, shrub cover by 69%, total herbaceous cover by 59%, graminoid cover by 39%, and forb cover by 82%. However, these variables did not differ between grazing treatments or years once overstory effects were accounted for, indicating that the declines were driven by the increased dominance of the overstory during this period. Our results demonstrate that historical livestock grazing practices are an aspect of land-use history that can affect ecosystem development. Grazing history must be considered when extrapolating results from one site to another. In addition, the understory vegetation was more strongly controlled by the ponderosa pine overstory than by recent livestock grazing or by temporal dynamics, indicating that overstory effects must be accounted for when examining understory responses in this ecosystem.     

High solids co-digestion of food and landscape waste and the potential for ammonia toxicity

A pilot-scale study was completed to determine the feasibility of high-solids anaerobic digestion (HSAD) of a mixture of food and landscape wastes at a university in central Pennsylvania (USA). HSAD was stable at low loadings (2 g COD/L-day), but developed inhibitory ammonia concentrations at high loadings (15 g COD/L-day). At low loadings, methane yields were 232 L CH₄/kg COD fed and 229 L CH₄/kg VS fed, and at high loadings yields were 211 L CH₄/kg COD fed and 272 L CH₄/kg VS fed. Based on characterization and biodegradability studies, food waste appears to be a good candidate for HSAD at low organic loading rates; however, the development of ammonia inhibition at high loading rates suggests that the C:N ratio is too low for use as a single substrate. The relatively low biodegradability of landscape waste as reported herein made it an unsuitable substrate to increase the C:N ratio. Codigestion of food waste with a substrate high in bioavailable carbon is recommended to increase the C:N ratio sufficiently to allow HSAD at loading rates of 15 g COD/L-day.     

Bioventing of No. 2 Fuel Oil: Effects of Air Flowrate,Temperature, Nutrient Amendment,and Acclimation

A 14‐month pilot‐scale bioventing study, sponsored by the New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services, was conducted by the University of New Hampshire to determine the effects of the time between the contamination event and the onset of bioventing, as well as air flowrate, temperature, and nutrient amendments. Freshly contaminated soil was not readily amenable to bioventing. Bioventing was effective (82–92.5 percent removal) for acclimated soil amended with nutrients at 10 °C and 20 °C for the 275 cm³/min and 140 cm³/min air flowrates, respectively. First order degradation rates after nutrient addition were ?6.11 ± 0.83 (×10^?3)/day and ?6.57 ± 1.71 (×10^?3)/day, respectively. The results indicate that bioventing will be best applied when the contamination has occurred at least two years before the onset of treatment. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Trends and applications of multi-criteria decision analysis: use in government agencies

Government agencies are responsible for making complex, high-stake decisions, which require them to balance political, technical, and economic considerations. Pressure from stakeholders and administrative requirements necessitate a traceable and transparent method for decision making. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are available to decision makers to facilitate systematic treatment of the information and factors necessary to make informed and effective decisions in complex circumstances. A survey of gray and academic literature was conducted to gauge the level of application and awareness of MCDA methods by US government agencies and determine if the tools’ benefits are being realized. Results show an increase in awareness and consideration of MCDA from 2000 to the present, and that agencies are especially considering and using tools to engage with stakeholders. Government agencies would benefit from extending the application of MCDA to strategic planning and congressional engagement, as well as by standardizing MCDA use to better enable inter-agency collaboration and communication.     

Critical Review of Exposure and Effects: Implications for Setting Regulatory Health Criteria for Ingested Copper

Environmental Management - Decades of study indicate that copper oral exposures are typically not a human health concern. Ingesting high levels of soluble copper salts can cause acute...     

Speciated arsenic in air: measurement methodology and risk assessment considerations

Accurate measurement of arsenic (As) in air is critical to providing a more robust understanding of arsenic exposures and associated human health risks. Although there is extensive information available on total arsenic in air, less is known on the relative contribution of each arsenic species. To address this data gap, the authors conducted an in-depth review of available information on speciated arsenic in air. The evaluation included the type of species measured and the relative abundance, as well as an analysis of the limitations of current analytical methods. Despite inherent differences in the procedures, most techniques effectively separated arsenic species in the air samples. Common analytical techniques such as inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and/or hydride generation (HG)- or quartz furnace (GF)-atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS) were used for arsenic measurement in the extracts, and provided some of the most sensitive detection limits. The current analysis demonstrated that, despite limited comparability among studies due to differences in seasonal factors, study duration, sample collection methods, and analytical methods, research conducted to date is adequate to show that arsenic in air is mainly in the inorganic form. Reported average concentrations of As(III) and As(V) ranged up to 7.4 and 10.4 ng/m3, respectively, with As(V) being more prevalent than As(III) in most studies. Concentrations of the organic methylated arsenic compounds are negligible (in the pg/m3 range). However because of the variability in study methods and measurement methodology, the authors were unable to determine the variation in arsenic composition as a function of source or particulate matter (PM) fraction. In this work, the authors include the implications of arsenic speciation in air on potential exposure and risks. The authors conclude that it is important to synchronize sample collection, preparation, and analytical techniques in order to generate data more useful for arsenic inhalation risk assessment, and a more robust documentation of quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) protocols is necessary to ensure accuracy, precision, representativeness, and comparability.     

Air flow and concentration fields at urban road intersections for improved understanding of personal exposure

This paper reviews the state of knowledge on modelling air flow and concentration fields at road intersections. The first part covers the available literature from the past two decades on experimental (both field and wind tunnel) and modelling activities in order to provide insight into the physical basis of flow behaviour at a typical cross-street intersection. This is followed by a review of associated investigations of the impact of traffic-generated localised turbulence on the concentration fields due to emissions from vehicles. There is a discussion on the role of adequate characterisation of vehicle-induced turbulence in making predictions using hybrid models, combining the merits of conventional approaches with information obtained from more detailed modelling. This concludes that, despite advancements in computational techniques, there are crucial knowledge gaps affecting the parameterisations used in current models for individual exposure. This is specifically relevant to the growing impetus on walking and cycling activities on urban roads in the context of current drives for sustainable transport and healthy living. Due to inherently longer travel times involved during such trips, compared to automotive transport, pedestrians and cyclists are subjected to higher levels of exposure to emissions. Current modelling tools seem to under-predict this exposure because of limitations in their design and in the empirical parameters employed.     

Ecological changes and local knowledge in a giant honey bee (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Apis dorsata</Emphasis> F.) hunting community in Palawan,Philippines

One of the traditional livelihood practices of indigenous Tagbanuas in Palawan, Philippines is wild honey hunting and gathering from the giant honey bee (Apis dorsata F.). In order to analyze the linkages of the social and ecological systems involved in this indigenous practice, we conducted spatial, quantitative, and qualitative analyses on field data gathered through mapping of global positioning system coordinates, community surveys, and key informant interviews. We found that only 24% of the 251 local community members surveyed could correctly identify the giant honey bee. Inferential statistics showed that a lower level of formal education strongly correlates with correct identification of the giant honey bee. Spatial analysis revealed that mean NDVI of sampled nesting tree areas has dropped from 0.61 in the year 1988 to 0.41 in 2015. However, those who correctly identified the giant honey bee lived in areas with high vegetation cover. Decreasing vegetation cover limits the presence of wild honey bees and this may also be limiting direct experience of the community with wild honey bees. However, with causality yet to be established, we recommend conducting further studies to concretely model feedbacks between ecological changes and local knowledge.