The Route to Best Science in Implementation of the Endangered Species Act’s Consultation Mandate: The Benefits of Structured Effects Analysis

The Endangered Species Act is intended to conserve at-risk species and the ecosystems upon which they depend, and it is premised on the notion that if the wildlife agencies that are charged with implementing the statute use the best available scientific information, they can successfully carry out this intention. We assess effects analysis as a tool for using best science to guide agency decisions under the Act. After introducing effects analysis, we propose a framework that facilitates identification and use of the best available information in the development of agency determinations. The framework includes three essential steps—the collection of reliable scientific information, the critical assessment and synthesis of available data and analyses derived from those data, and the analysis of the effects of actions on listed species and their habitats. We warn of likely obstacles to rigorous, structured effect analyses and describe the extent to which independent scientific review may assist in overcoming these obstacles. We conclude by describing eight essential elements that are required for a successful effects analysis.     

Genetic structure of the southeastern United States loggerhead turtle nesting aggregation: evidence of additional structure within the peninsular Florida recovery unit

The southeastern United States supports one of two large loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting aggregations worldwide and is therefore critical to global conservation and recovery efforts for the species. Previous studies have established the presence of four demographically distinct nesting populations (management units) corresponding to beaches from (1) North Carolina through northeastern Florida, (2) peninsular Florida, (3) the Dry Tortugas, and (4) northwest Florida. Temporal and geographic genetic structure of the nesting aggregation was examined utilizing partial mitochondrial control region haplotype frequencies from 834 samples collected over the 2002 through 2008 nesting seasons from 19 beaches as well as previously published haplotype data. Most rookeries did not exhibit interannual genetic variation. However, the interannual variation detected did significantly impact the interpretation of spatial genetic structure in northeastern Florida. Based on pairwise F _ST comparisons, exact tests of population differentiation, and analysis of molecular variance, the present study upholds the distinctiveness of the four currently recognized management units and further supports recognition of discrete central eastern, southern (southeastern and southwestern), and central western Florida management units. Further subdivision may be warranted, but more intensive genetic sampling is required. In addition, tools such as telemetry and mark-recapture are needed to complement genetic data and overcome limitations of genetic markers in resolving loggerhead turtle rookery connectivity in the southeastern USA.     

A Strategy for Prioritizing Threats and Recovery Actions for At-Risk Species

Ensuring the persistence of at-risk species depends on implementing conservation actions that ameliorate threats. We developed and implemented a method to quantify the relative importance of threats and to prioritize recovery actions based on their potential to affect risk to Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). We used assessments of threat importance and elasticities of demographic rates from population matrix models to estimate the relative contributions of threats to overall increase in risk to the population. We found that urbanization, human access, military operations, disease, and illegal use of off highway vehicles are the most serious threats to the desert tortoise range-wide. These results suggest that, overall, recovery actions that decrease habitat loss, predation, and crushing will be most effective for recovery; specifically, we found that habitat restoration, topic-specific environmental education, and land acquisition are most likely to result in the greatest decrease in risk to the desert tortoise across its range. In addition, we have developed an application that manages the conceptual model and all supporting information and calculates threat severity and potential effectiveness of recovery actions. Our analytical approach provides an objective process for quantifying threats, prioritizing recovery actions, and developing monitoring metrics for those actions for adaptive management of any at-risk species.     

Ontogenic variations in fatty acid and alcohol composition of the pelagic amphipod <Emphasis Type="Italic">Themisto libellula</Emphasis> in Kongsfjorden (Svalbard)

The fatty acid and alcohol composition of the pelagic amphipod, Themisto libellula, was monitored during the 5 first months of its life cycle (4–20 mm length) in an Arctic fjord, Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. Fatty acids of the three major lipid classes, polar lipids (PL), triacylglycerol (TAG), and wax esters (WE), were analyzed to highlight ontogenic changes in their diet and metabolism. The PL composition of T. libellula did not show any strong variations along their growth except during the first month where an important increase of 20:5(n-3) (EPA) and 22:6(n-3) (DHA) was observed. The TAG composition revealed a clear gradient corresponding to a diet shift from omnivorous juveniles toward carnivorous sub-adults and adults. Indeed, fatty acid trophic markers of diatoms were dominant in the juveniles, whereas 20:1(n-9) and 22:1(n-11), the Calanus sp. trophic markers, overwhelmed in the older stages. The WE composition highlighted the same general trend, however, differences were found with the TAG and are discussed as a result of differences in turnover rates and assimilation pathways between the two lipid classes.     

Price controls and banking in emissions trading: An experimental evaluation

We present results from laboratory emissions markets designed to investigate the effects of price controls and permit banking on limiting permit price risk. While both instruments reduce between-period price volatility and within-period price dispersion, combining price controls and permit banking yields important benefits. Banking alone produces high permit prices in earlier periods that fall over time, but the combined policy produces lower initial prices and lower volatility. However, banking, price controls, and the combination all produce higher between-period emissions volatility. Hence, for emissions markets that seek to control flow pollutants with strictly convex damages, efforts to limit permit price risk can result in higher expected damage.     

Multiple signals in the palmate newt: ornaments help when courting

There is increasing evidence that female mate choice is often based on the assessment of multiple male traits, involving both morphology and behavior. We investigated female mate choice for multiple male traits in the palmate newt, Lissotriton helveticus, including male tail filament length, hind foot web size, crest development, body size, ventral coloration, and courtship display activity. Observations of courtship display in the field revealed that females spent more time in front of males with longer tail filaments. Laboratory experiments revealed a more detailed relationship between filament length and courtship display. We found that females took more sperm masses from males with both longer filaments and greater display activity. Experimental shortening of the tail filament length substantially decreased the number of male sperm masses transferred. However, when we experimentally reversed relative filament length between two males in mating trials, male mating success was explained by courtship activity and not by filament length. Our results show that female palmate newts value multiple traits during mate choice, including both morphological ornaments and reproductive behaviors in males. Our results further suggest that, when filament length is below a certain threshold, females may value the information content of courtship activity over that of filament length.     

Is There a Generic Environmental Advantage for Starch–PVOH Biopolymers Over Petrochemical Polymers?

The current study was undertaken to address the general question of whether there is an environmental advantage for renewable, starch?Cpolyvinyl alcohol (PVOH) biopolymer blends over petrochemical polymers. This was addressed using life cycle assessment (LCA) over a set of multiple case studies based on a consistent set of parameters and methodological background. A group of starch?CPVOH blended biopolymers derived from different feedstocks (wheat, potato, maize) were compared with high density polyethylene (HDPE), low density polyethylene (LDPE) and expanded polystyrene (EPS) in a range of applications. The results suggest that a general environmental advantage does not exist for the starch?CPVOH blended biopolymers over their petrochemical counterparts in all applications and, instead, a case-by-case approach is necessary to evaluate environmental pros and cons, based on specific comparisons. Overall, starch?CPVOH biopolymers were found to offer environmentally superior options to LDPE in thermal packaging applications. However, this was not the case in other applications, where the outcome of comparisons between starch?CPVOH biopolymers and HDPE/EPS varied according to various factors, including the specific end-of-life scenarios and the recycled content of the petrochemical polymers. A hierarchy of critical parameters for LCA-based decision-making concerning starch?CPVOH biopolymers is suggested as a general outcome of this research.     

Exploring metapopulation-scale suppression alternatives for a global invader in a river network experiencing climate change

Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species’ impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout (Salmo trutta), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes.