A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Prenatal diagnosis and outcomes of five cases of mosaicism for an isochromosome of 20q

Five cases of mosaicism for an isochromosome of 20q have been detected from a total of 50 000 cases analysed for prenatal diagnosis by amniocentesis. Karyotypes were designated mos 46,X_/46,X_,i(20q). In all cases, the abnormal cell line was detected in more than one primary culture, thus fulfilling the criterion for true (level III) mosaicism. Indications for prenatal diagnosis were parental anxiety (two cases), low maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (two cases), and high maternal serum AFP (one case). Level II ultrasounds on all five fetuses were normal, and the abnormal cell line was never detected in fetal blood and/or cord blood. All five pregnancies were continued and had normal outcomes, with birth weights ranging from 2.4 to 3.8 kg. The development of all five children has been normal, with the oldest child in the study now 4 years of age. We suggest that the abnormal cell line in each case was of extrafetal origin, and that this may be one of the more common examples of this phenomenon, occurring in approximately 1/10000 prenatal diagnoses. Mosaicism i(20q) may have been missed in the past because of the higher resolution necessary to detect this subtle change.     

The Fallacies of Concurrent Climate Policy Efforts

Climate policy has assumed an extreme degree of urgency in the international debate in recent years. This article begins by taking a critical look at the scientific underpinnings of the efforts to stabilize the climate. It points to several serious question marks on the purported relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and expresses distrust about claims of impending catastrophes related to rising sea levels, hurricanes, and spread of infectious disease. It then reviews the concurrent climate policy efforts and concludes that they are incoherent, misguided and unduly costly, and that they have so far had no perceptible impact on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The exceedingly ambitious policy plans currently under preparation suffer from similar fallacies. For these reasons, but also because of the remaining scientific doubts and the exorbitant costs that have to be incurred, skepticism is expressed about the preparedness to implement the climate policy plans currently on the table.     

Association of size-resolved airborne particles with foot traffic inside a carpeted hallway

The effect of foot traffic on indoor particle resuspension was evaluated by associating non-prescribed foot traffic with simultaneous size-resolved airborne particulate matter (PM) concentrations in a northern California hospital. Foot traffic and PM were measured every 15 min in a carpeted hallway over two 27-h periods. The PM concentration in the hallway was modeled based on the foot traffic intensity, including the previous PM concentration via an autocorrelation regression method based on the well-mixed box model. All 5 size ranges of PM, ranging from 0.75–1 μm to 5–7.5 μm, were highly correlated with foot traffic measurements for both monitoring periods (p < 0.001, R² = 0.87–0.90). However, correlations during daytime hours were less significant than nighttime. Coefficients found via this autoregressive analysis can be interpreted to reveal (i) time-independent contributions of walking activities on PM levels for a specific location; and (ii) size-specific characteristics of the resuspended PM.     

Exclusion of chromosomal mosaicism in amniotic fluid cultures: Efficacy of in situ versus flask techniques

Accurate diagnosis of mosaicism in amniotic fluid cell cultures represents a major problem. If insufficient cells are analysed, true fetal mosaicism may go undetected. False-positive diagnosis is also possible since a second cell line may arise in vitro and not reflect the true fetal genetic constitution. These difficulties apply to both flask and in situ culture techniques, to varying degrees. The relative accuracy of flask versus in situ culture techniques in excluding mosaicism was determined by statistical analysis of experimental data from ten pairs of mixed male-female amniotic fluid specimens. The data support the idea that the majority of in situ colonies are independent of one another. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) analysis of a single metaphase from a number of different colonies enhances the confidence for excluding mosaicism; (2) analysis of more than one cell per colony offers little advantage; (3) exclusion of a given level of mosaicism requires analysis of fewer metaphases using the in situ method; (4) the confidence for excluding mosaicism is high with both in situ and flask techniques, using the provided guidelines; and (5) it is shown that the two-stage approach used by many laboratories is currently the most efficient way to exclude mosaicism.     

Mitigation Costs in a Globalized World: Climate Policy Analysis with REMIND-R

Within this paper, we present the novel hybrid model REMIND-R and its application in a climate policy context based on the EU target to avoid a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial level. This paper aims to identify necessary long-term changes in the energy system and the magnitude of costs to attain such a climate protection target under different designs of the post-2012 climate policy regime. The regional specification of mitigation costs is analyzed in the context of globalization where regions are linked by global markets for emission permits, goods, and several resources. From simulation experiments with REMIND-R, it turns out that quite different strategies of restructuring the energy system are pursued by the regions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the variance of mitigation costs is higher across regions than across policy regimes. First-order impacts, in particular, reduced rents from trade in fossil resources, prevail regardless of the design of the policy regime.     

Real-time PCR for detection of the Aspergillus genus

Aspergillus is a genus of mold that has strong indoor sources, including several species capable of acting as opportunistic pathogens. Previous studies suggest that Aspergillus could serve as an indicator for abnormal mold growth or moisture, making it an important genus for environmental monitoring. Here, a quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR, or real-time PCR) assay is presented for Aspergillus. The assay shows good specificity for the genus, detecting all Aspergillus species tested, although a few non-Aspergillus species are also amplified. Sensitivity testing demonstrates that DNA representing one conidium can be detected. A validation study compared qPCR results against direct microscopy counts using A. fumigatus conidia aerosolized into a laboratory chamber. The assay was then used to quantify Aspergillus in indoor air samples, demonstrating its utility for environmental monitoring. Analysis of a small number of clinical sputum samples showed complete agreement with culturing results.     

Urban growth management in Jeddah

The towns and cities of Saudi Arabia have been subjected to sustained growth pressures since the transformation of the country's economy following the discovery of oil in the Eastern Province of the Kingdom. The rapid growth which has been experienced has created major problems for the central and local government agencies responsible for planning and managing urban growth. The experience of Jeddah, one of the major cities in Saudi Arabia, is described and the problems of planning and managing its growth are analysed. Weaknesses relating to the structure of the planning system are identified, as are major difficulties in relation to the quality and quantity of professional staff. Recent attempts to improve the operation of the planning system are described and evaluated.