Scenario analysis of perspective change to support climate adaptation: lessons from a pilot study on Dutch river management

Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future. The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions.     

Improved phosphorus use efficiency in agriculture: a key requirement for its sustainable use

Mineral phosphorus (P) fertilizers processed from fossil reserves have enhanced food production over the past 50 years and, hence, the welfare of billions of people. Fertilizer P has, however, not only been used to lift the fertility level of formerly poor soils, but also allowed people to neglect the reuse of P that humans ingest in the form of food and excrete again as faeces and urine and also in other organic wastes. Consequently, P mainly moves in a linear direction from mines to distant locations for crop production, processing and consumption, where a large fraction eventually may become either agronomically inactive due to over-application, unsuitable for recycling due to fixation, contamination or dilution, and harmful as a polluting agent of surface water. This type of P use is not sustainable because fossil phosphate rock reserves are finite. Once the high quality phosphate rock reserves become depleted, too little P will be available for the soils of food-producing regions that still require P supplements to facilitate efficient utilization of resources other than P, including other nutrients. The paper shows that the amounts of P applied in agriculture could be considerably smaller by optimizing land use, improvement of fertilizer recommendations and application techniques, modified livestock diets, and adjustment of livestock densities to available land. Such a concerted set of measures is expected to reduce the use of P in agriculture whilst maintaining crop yields and minimizing the environmental impact of P losses. The paper also argues that compensation of the P exported from farms should eventually be fully based on P recovered from ‘wastes’, the recycling of which should be stimulated by policy measures.     

Toxicity assessment of a common laundry detergent using the freshwater flagellate Euglena gracilis

Synthetic detergents are among the commonly used chemicals in everyday life. Detergents, reaching aquatic environments through domestic and municipal wastewater, can cause many different effects in aquatic organisms. The present study was aimed at the toxicity evaluation of a commonly used laundry detergent, Ariel, using the freshwater flagellate Euglena gracilis as a biotest organism. Different parameters of the flagellate like motility, swimming velocity, cell shape, gravitactic orientation, photosynthesis and concentration of light harvesting pigments were used as end points for the toxicity assessment. No Observed Effect Concentration (NOEC) and EC₅₀ values were calculated for the end point parameters at four different incubation times, i.e. 0, 6, 24 and 72 h. After 72 h incubation, swimming velocity of the cells was found to be the most sensitive parameter giving NOEC and EC₅₀ values of 10.8 and 34 mg L⁻¹, respectively. After 72 h exposure to the detergent, chlorophyll a and total carotenoids were significantly decreased in cultures treated with Ariel at concentrations of 50 mg L⁻¹ and above while chlorophyll b significantly decreased at concentrations above 750 mg L⁻¹. The maximum inhibitory effect on the quantum yield of photosystem II was observed after 24 h exposure and thereafter a recovery trend was observed. Motility, gravitaxis and cell shape were strongly impaired immediately upon exposure to the detergent, but with increasing exposure time these parameters showed acclimatization to the stress and thus the NOEC values obtained after 72 h were higher than those immediately after exposure.     

Soil nitrogen transformations under elevated atmospheric CO₂ and O₃ during the soybean growing season

We investigated the influence of elevated CO₂ and O₃ on soil N cycling within the soybean growing season and across soil environments (i.e., rhizosphere and bulk soil) at the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Elevated O₃ decreased soil mineral N likely through a reduction in plant material input and increased denitrification, which was evidenced by the greater abundance of the denitrifier gene nosZ. Elevated CO₂ did not alter the parameters evaluated and both elevated CO₂ and O₃ showed no interactive effects on nitrifier and denitrifier abundance, nor on total and mineral N concentrations. These results indicate that elevated CO₂ may have limited effects on N transformations in soybean agroecosystems. However, elevated O₃ can lead to a decrease in soil N availability in both bulk and rhizosphere soils, and this likely also affects ecosystem productivity by reducing the mineralization rates of plant-derived residues.     

Aggregation and ecotoxicity of CeO₂ nanoparticles in synthetic and natural waters with variable pH, organic matter concentration and ionic strength

The influence of pH (6.0-9.0), natural organic matter (NOM) (0-10 mg C/L) and ionic strength (IS) (1.7-40 mM) on 14 nm CeO₂ NP aggregation and ecotoxicity towards the alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata was assessed following a central composite design. Mean NP aggregate sizes ranged between 200 and 10000 nm. Increasing pH and IS enhanced aggregation, while increasing NOM decreased mean aggregate sizes. The 48 h-E_rC20s ranged between 4.7 and 395.8 mg CeO₂/L. An equation for predicting the 48 h-E_rC20 (48 h-E_rC20 = −1626.4 × (pH) + 109.45 × (pH)² + 116.49 × ([NOM]) − 14.317 × (pH) × ([NOM]) + 6007.2) was developed. In a validation study with natural waters the predicted 48 h-E_rC20 was a factor 1.08-2.57 lower compared to the experimental values.     

Climate change and economic consequences for inland waterway transport in Europe

Future climate conditions are likely to affect inland waterway transport in Europe. According to some climate scenarios, in summer, in the river Rhine, periods with low water levels are likely to occur more often and become more serious. Then inland waterway transport carriers will experience more severe restrictions on the load factor of their inland ships, which implies a stronger reduction in transport capacity in the market. Transport prices will rise under such conditions. Some studies reviewed in this paper find that at extremely low water levels, the price per tonne for inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area will almost double. These increased transport prices result in welfare losses. For the dry summer in 2003, the losses for North West Europe are estimated to sum up to around €480 million. Increased transport prices trigger adaptation. Inland waterway carriers may use smaller vessels, and shippers have the opportunity to shift from inland waterway transport to alternative transport modes in periods with low water levels. This effect is probably rather modest, however, with a modal shift to road and rail smaller than 10 %. Also, changes in transport costs may lead to relocation of certain economic activities in the long run.     

Agroforest’s growing role in reducing carbon losses from Jambi (Sumatra), Indonesia

This paper examines the size and intensity of changes among five land categories during the two time intervals in a region of Indonesia that is pioneering negotiations concerning reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). Maps at 1973, 1993, and 2005 indicate that land-cover change is accelerating, while carbon loss is decelerating in Jambi Province, Sumatra. Land dynamics have shifted from Forest loss during 1973–1993 to Agroforest loss during 1993–2005. Forest losses account for most reductions in aboveground carbon during the both time intervals, but Agroforest plays an increasingly important role in carbon reductions during the more recent interval. These results provide motivation for future REDD policies to count carbon changes associated with all influential land categories, such as Agroforests.     

Adaptation options for marine industries and coastal communities using community structure and dynamics

Identifying effective adaptation strategies for coastal communities dependent on marine resources and impacted by climate change can be difficult due to the dynamic nature of marine ecosystems. The task is more difficult if current and predicted shifts in social and economic trends are considered. Information about social and economic change is often limited to qualitative data. A combination of qualitative and quantitative models provide the flexibility to allow the assessment of current and future ecological and socio-economic risks and can provide information on alternative adaptations. Here, we demonstrate how stakeholder input, qualitative models and Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can provide semi-quantitative predictions, including uncertainty levels, for the assessment of climate and non-climate-driven change in a case study community. Issues are identified, including the need to increase the capacity of the community to cope with change. Adaptation strategies are identified that alter positive feedback cycles contributing to a continued decline in population, local employment and retail spending. For instance, the diversification of employment opportunities and the attraction of new residents of different ages would be beneficial in preventing further population decline. Some impacts of climate change can be combated through recreational bag or size limits and monitoring of popular range-shifted species that are currently unmanaged, to reduce the potential for excessive removal. Our results also demonstrate that combining BBNs and qualitative models can assist with the effective communication of information between stakeholders and researchers. Furthermore, the combination of techniques provides a dynamic, learning-based, semi-quantitative approach for the assessment of climate and socio-economic impacts and the identification of potential adaptation strategies.     

Conceptualising climate change in rural Australia: community perceptions, attitudes and (in)actions

Public engagement and support is essential for ensuring adaptation to climate change. The first step in achieving engagement is documenting how the general public currently perceive and understand climate change issues, specifically the importance they place on this global problem and identifying any unique challenges for individual communities. For rural communities, which rely heavily on local agriculture industries, climate change brings both potential impacts and opportunities. Yet, to date, our knowledge about how rural residents conceptualise climate change is limited. Thus, this research explores how the broader rural community—not only farmers—conceptualises climate change and responsive activities, focussing on documenting the understandings and risk perceptions of local residents from two small Australian rural communities. Twenty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted in communities in the Eden/Gippsland region on the border of New South Wales and Victoria and the north-east of Tasmania. There are conflicting views on how climate change is conceptualised, the degree of concern and need for action, the role of local industry, who will ‘win’ and ‘lose’, and the willingness of rural communities to adapt. In particular, residents who believed in anthropogenic or human-induced factors described the changing climate as evidence of ‘climate change’, whereas those who were more sceptical termed it ‘weather variability’, suggesting that there is a divide in rural Australia that, unless urgently addressed, will hinder local and national policy responses to this global issue. Engaging these communities in the twenty-first-century climate change debate will require a significant change in terminology and communication strategies.     

Quantifying summed fullerene nC60 and related transformation products in water using LC LTQ Orbitrap MS and application to environmental samples

The application of engineered nanomaterials increases strongly. Development of analytical techniques and their application to environmental samples is essential for human and environmental risk assessment of the nanoparticles. The objective of this study was to develop a sensitive analytical method to quantify nC(60) in water, using accurate mass screening liquid chromatography-hybrid linear ion trap Orbitrap mass spectrometry. nC(60) can be transformed by oxidation, reduction and photochemical reaction. Therefore, the formation of some transformation products of nC(60) was studied as well. Finally, the developed analytical method was applied to surface water samples from several locations in the Netherlands. The developed method enabled to detect and quantify aqueous concentrations of the summed nC(60) and its transformation products as low as 5 ng/L. It was observed that nC(60) transformation products exceed quantities of the parent C(60). Despite the high sensitivity of the developed method, no nC(60) or transformation products were detected in an array of Dutch surface waters. This might be due to low emissions, losses in the aqueous phase by sedimentation, sorption or further transformation processes.