Model selection and model averaging in behavioural ecology: the utility of the IT-AIC framework

Behavioural ecologists often study complex systems in which multiple hypotheses could be proposed to explain observed phenomena. For some systems, simple controlled experiments can be employed to reveal part of the complexity; often, however, observational studies that incorporate a multitude of causal factors may be the only (or preferred) avenue of study. We assess the value of recently advocated approaches to inference in both contexts. Specifically, we examine the use of information theoretic (IT) model selection using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC). We find that, for simple analyses, the advantages of switching to an IT-AIC approach are likely to be slight, especially given recent emphasis on biological rather than statistical significance. By contrast, the model selection approach embodied by IT approaches offers significant advantages when applied to problems of more complex causality. Model averaging is an intuitively appealing extension to model selection. However, we were unable to demonstrate consistent improvements in prediction accuracy when using model averaging with IT-AIC; our equivocal results suggest that more research is needed on its utility. We illustrate our arguments with worked examples from behavioural experiments.     

Migrating an incident reporting system to a CCPS process safety metrics model

A major chemical company established a formal incident investigation and reporting system several years ago. The original system focused heavily on worker-related injuries, illnesses, and near-misses and was used primarily to track statistics reportable to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). This Occupational Injury and Illness (OII) approach has been recognized to be an ineffective tool for measuring, predicting, and preventing process safety incidents. The Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) recently published guidelines on how to establish safety metrics for the measurement and reduction of process safety incidents. The process safety metrics approach relies upon leading and lagging metrics to improve organization process safety. This paper is a case study of the analysis of one organization’s incident database, which represents approximately five years of data from over a dozen facilities. The aim of this investigation was to extract useful process safety metrics from the incident investigation and reporting system, which would be pertinent to the types of process units and process functions at these facilities. This paper will discuss the approach taken to extract process incident information from an OII-based database and present the difficulties of performing an analysis on such a database. This paper provides guidance on how to migrate an existing OII-based reporting system to a program that includes process safety metrics in accordance with industry best practices.     

A Method for Ensemble Wildland Fire Simulation

An ensemble simulation system that accounts for uncertainty in long-range weather conditions and two-dimensional wildland fire spread is described. Fuel moisture is expressed based on the energy release component, a US fire danger rating index, and its variation throughout the fire season is modeled using time series analysis of historical weather data. This analysis is used to characterize the seasonal trend in ERC, autocorrelation of residuals, and daily standard deviation and stochastically generate artificial time series of afternoon fuel moisture. Daily wind speed and direction are sampled stochastically from joint probabilities of historical wind speed and direction for the date range of the fire simulation period. Hundreds or thousands of fire growth simulations are then performed using the synthetic fire weather sequences. The performance of these methods is evaluated in terms of the number of ensemble member simulations, one- versus two-dimensional fire spread simulations, and comparison with results from 91 fires occurring from 2007 to 2009. Simulations were found to be in consistent agreement with observations, but trends indicate that the ensemble average of simulated fire sizes were consistently larger than actual fires whereas the farthest extent burned by fires was underestimated.     

The fate of steroid estrogens: partitioning during wastewater treatment and onto river sediments

The partitioning of steroid estrogens in wastewater treatment and receiving waters is likely to influence their discharge to, and persistence in, the environment. This study investigated the partitioning behaviour of steroid estrogens in both laboratory and field studies. Partitioning onto activated sludge from laboratory-scale Husmann units was rapid with equilibrium achieved after 1 h. Sorption isotherms and Kd values decreased in the order 17??-ethinyl estradiol > 17??-estradiol > estrone > estriol without a sorption limit being achieved (1/n?>1). Samples from a wastewater treatment works indicated no accumulation of steroid estrogens in solids from primary or secondary biological treatment, however, a range of steroid estrogens were identified in sediment samples from the River Thames. This would indicate that partitioning in the environment may play a role in the long-term fate of estrogens, with an indication that they will be recalcitrant in anaerobic conditions.     

Water and sediment quality of dry season pools in a dryland river system: the upper Leichhardt River, Queensland, Australia

This article presents the geochemical characteristics and physicochemical properties of water and sediment from twelve semi-permanent, dryland pools in the upper Leichhardt River catchment, north-west Queensland, Australia. The pools were examined to better understand the quality of sediments and temporary waters in a dryland system with a well-established metal contamination problem. Water and sediment sampling was conducted at the beginning of the hydroperiod in May and September 2007. Water samples were analyzed for major solute compositions (Ca, Na, K, Mg, Cl, SO(4), HCO(3)) and water-soluble (operationally defined as the <0.45 μm fraction) metals (Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn). Sediment samples were analyzed for total extractable and bioaccessible metals (As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn), elemental composition and grain morphology. At the time of sampling a number of pools contained water and sediment with elevated concentrations, compared to Australian regulatory guidelines, of Cu (maximum: water 28 μg L(-1); sediment 770 mg kg(-1)), Pb (maximum: water 3.4 μg L(-1); sediment 630 mg kg(-1)) and Zn (maximum: water 150 μg L(-1); sediment 780 mg kg(-1)). Concentrations of Cd and As in pools were relatively low and generally within Australian regulatory guideline values. Localized factors, such as the interaction of waters with anthropogenic contaminants from modern and historic mine wastes (i.e. residual smelter and slag materials), exert influence on the quality of pool waters. Although the pools of the upper Leichhardt River catchment are contaminated, they do not appear to be the primary repository of water and sediment associated metals when compared to materials in the remainder channel and floodplain. Nevertheless, a precautionary approach should be adopted to mitigating human exposure to contaminated environments, which might include the installation of appropriate warning signs by local health and environmental authorities.     

Non-invasive measurement of carbon monoxide burden in Guatemalan children and adults following wood-fired temazcal (sauna-bath) use

The use of wood-fired steam baths, or temazcales, is a potentially dangerous source of CO exposure in Guatemalan Highland communities where adults and children use them regularly for bathing, relaxation, and healing purposes. Physical characteristics of children predispose them to absorb CO faster than adults, placing them at greater exposure and health risks. Efforts to quantify temazcal exposures across all age groups, however, have been hampered by the limitations in exposure measurement methods. In this pilot study we measured COHb levels in children and adults following use of the temazcal using three field-based, non-invasive CO measurement methods: CO-oximetry, exhaled breath, and by estimation of COHb using micro-environmental concentrations and time diaries. We then performed a brief comparison of methods. Average CO concentrations measured during temazcal use were 661 ± 503 ppm, approximately 10 times the 15 min WHO guideline. Average COHb levels for all participants ranged from 12-14% (max of 30%, min 2%), depending on the method. COHb levels measured in children were not significantly different from adults despite the fact that they spent 66% less time exposed. COHb measured by CO-oximetry and exhaled breath had good agreement, but precision of the former was affected substantially by random instrument error. The version of the field CO-oximeter device used in this pilot could be useful in screening for acute CO exposure events in children but may lack the precision for monitoring the burden from less extreme, but more day-to-day CO exposures (e.g. indoor solid fuel use). In urban settings, health effects in children and adults have been associated with chronic exposure to ambient CO concentrations much lower than measured in this study. Future research should focus on reducing exposure from temazcales through culturally appropriate modifications to their design and practices, and targeted efforts to educate communities on the health risks they pose and actions they can take to reduce this risk.     

Obstetrical outcomes following amniocentesis performed after 24 weeks of gestation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

To evaluate obstetrical outcomes for women having late amniocentesis (on or after 24 weeks). Electronic databases were searched from inception to January 1st, 2023. The obstetrical outcomes evaluated were gestational age at delivery, preterm birth (PTB) < 37 weeks, PTB within 1 week from amniocentesis, premature prelabor rupture of membranes (pPROM), chorionamnionitis, placental abruption, intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) and termination of pregnancy (TOP). The incidence of PTB <37 weeks was 4.85% (95% CI 3.48–6.56), while the incidence of PTB within 1 week was 1.42% (95% CI 0.66–2.45). The rate of pPROM was 2.85% (95% CI 1.21–3.32). The incidence of placental abruption was 0.91% (95% CI 0.16–2.25), while the rate of IUFD was 3.66% (95% CI 0.00–14.04). The rate of women who underwent TOP was 6.37% (95%CI 1.05–15.72). When comparing amniocentesis performed before or after 32 weeks, the incidence of PTB within 1 week was 1.48% (95% CI 0.42–3.19) and 2.38% (95% CI 0.40–5.95). Amniocentesis performed late after 24 weeks of gestation is an acceptable option for patients needing prenatal diagnosis in later gestation.     

Model for empowering rural poor through renewable energy technologies in Bangladesh

This paper proposes an integrated ecological, economic and social model to assist sustainable rural development in villages in Bangladesh. In the model, renewable energy technologies (RETs) create income-generating activities for male landless and marginal farmers and for women from such households, while reducing environmental problems, like deforestation and indoor air pollution from cooking with poor-quality fuels. Because of the high capital costs of RETs, the model proposes an extension of the well-known micro-credit approach developed by such NGOs as the Grameen Bank and BRAC. With the assistance of an External Agency composed of NGO, business, government and university representatives, such groups of villagers would form Village Organizations, comprising cooperatives or other forms of business, borrow money from a bank or large NGO, and purchase a RET based on biogas, solar or wind, depending upon location. By selling energy to wealthier members of the village, the Village Organizations would repay their loans, thus gaining direct ownership and control over the technology and its applications.     

A landscape-scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors

From a conservation perspective, quantifying potential refugial capacity has been predominantly focused on climate refugia, which is critical for maintaining the persistence of species and ecosystems. However, protection from other stressors, such as human-induced changes in fire and hydrology, that cause habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation is also necessary to ensure that conservation efforts focused on climate are not undermined by other threats. Thus, conceptual and methodological advances for quantifying potential refugia from multiple anthropogenic stressors are important to support conservation efforts. We devised a new conceptual approach, the domains of refugia, for assessing refugial capacity that identifies areas where exposure to multiple stressors is low. In our framework, patterns of environmental variability (e.g., increased frequency of warm summers), thresholds of resilience, and extent and intensity of stressors are used to identify areas of potential refugia from a suite of ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., changes in fire regime). To demonstrate its utility, we applied the framework to a Southern California landscape. Sites with high refugial capacity (super-refugia sites) had on average 30% fewer extremely warm summers, 20% fewer fire events, 10% less exposure to altered river channels and riparian areas, and 50% fewer recreational trails than the surrounding landscape. Our results suggest that super-refugia sites (∼8200 km²) for some natural communities are underrepresented in the existing protected area network, a finding that can inform efforts to expand protected areas. Our case study highlights how considering exposure to multiple stressors can inform planning and practice to conserve biodiversity in a changing world.