A landscape-scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors

From a conservation perspective, quantifying potential refugial capacity has been predominantly focused on climate refugia, which is critical for maintaining the persistence of species and ecosystems. However, protection from other stressors, such as human-induced changes in fire and hydrology, that cause habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation is also necessary to ensure that conservation efforts focused on climate are not undermined by other threats. Thus, conceptual and methodological advances for quantifying potential refugia from multiple anthropogenic stressors are important to support conservation efforts. We devised a new conceptual approach, the domains of refugia, for assessing refugial capacity that identifies areas where exposure to multiple stressors is low. In our framework, patterns of environmental variability (e.g., increased frequency of warm summers), thresholds of resilience, and extent and intensity of stressors are used to identify areas of potential refugia from a suite of ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., changes in fire regime). To demonstrate its utility, we applied the framework to a Southern California landscape. Sites with high refugial capacity (super-refugia sites) had on average 30% fewer extremely warm summers, 20% fewer fire events, 10% less exposure to altered river channels and riparian areas, and 50% fewer recreational trails than the surrounding landscape. Our results suggest that super-refugia sites (∼8200 km²) for some natural communities are underrepresented in the existing protected area network, a finding that can inform efforts to expand protected areas. Our case study highlights how considering exposure to multiple stressors can inform planning and practice to conserve biodiversity in a changing world.     

Net primary production, growth, and standing crop of Macrocystis pyrifera in Southern California

Marine macroalgae are believed to be among the most productive autotrophs in the world. However, relatively little information exists about spatial and temporal variation in net primary production (NPP) by these organisms. The data presented here are being collected to investigate patterns and causes of variation in NPP by the giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, which is believed to be one of the fastest growing autotrophs on earth. The standing crop and loss rates of M. pyrifera have been measured monthly in permanent plots at three sites in the Santa Barbara Channel, USA. Collection of these data began in June 2002 and is ongoing. Seasonal estimates of NPP and growth rate are made by combining the field data with a model of kelp dynamics. The purpose of this Data Paper is to make available a time series of M. pyrifera NPP, growth, and standing crop that is appropriate for examining seasonal and interannual patterns across multiple sites. Data on plant density in each plot and censuses of fronds on tagged plants at each site are also made available here. NPP, mass-specific growth rate, and standing crop are presented in four different metrics (wet mass, dry mass, carbon mass, and nitrogen mass) to facilitate comparisons with previous studies of M. pyrifera and with NPP measured in other ecosystems. Analyses of these data reveal seasonal cycles in growth and standing crop as well as substantial differences in M. pyrifera NPP among sites and years.     

Molecular dating and biogeography of the neritic krill Nyctiphanes

The genus Nyctiphanes (Malacostraca, Euphausiacea) comprises four neritic species that display antitropical geographic distribution in the Pacific (N. simplex and N. australis) and Atlantic (N. couchii and N. capensis) Oceans. We studied the origin of this distribution applying methods for phylogenetic reconstruction and molecular dating of nodes using a Bayesian MCMC analysis and the DNA sequence information contained in mtDNA 16S rDNA and cytochrome oxidase (COI). We tested hypotheses of vicariance by contrasting the time estimates of cladogenesis with the onset of the major barriers to ocean circulation. It was estimated that Nyctiphanes originated in the Pacific Ocean during the Miocene, with a lower limit of 18 miilion years ago (Mya). An Atlantic–Pacific cladogenic event (95% HPD 3.2–9.6) took place after the closure of the Tethyan Sea, suggesting that dispersal occurred from the Indo-Pacific, most likely via southern Africa. Similarly, the antitropical distribution pattern observed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean likely resulted from recent Pliocene–Pleistocene (95% HPD 1.0–4.97) northward dispersal from the southern hemisphere. Our results imply that dispersal appears to have had a significant role to play in the evolution of this group. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Inferring linear feature use in the presence of GPS measurement error

Global Positioning System (GPS) collars are increasingly used to study animal movement and habitat use. Measurement error is defined as the difference between the observed and true value being measured. In GPS data measurement error is referred to as location error and leads to misclassification of observed locations into habitat types. This is particularily true when studying habitats of small spatial extent with large amounts of edge, such as linear features (e.g. roads and seismic lines). However, no consistent framework exists to address the effect of measurement error on habitat classification of observed locations and resulting biological inference. We developed a mechanistic, empirically-based method for buffering linear features that minimizes the underestimation of animal use introduced by GPS measurement error. To do this we quantified the distribution of measurement error and derived an explicit formula for buffer radius which incorporated the error distribution, the width of the linear feature, and a predefined amount of acceptable type I error in location classification. In our empirical study we found the GPS measurement error of the Lotek GPS_3300 collar followed a bivariate Laplace distribution with parameter ρ = 0.1123. When we applied our method to a simulated landscape, type I error was reduced by 57%. This study highlights the need to address the effect of GPS measurement error in animal location classification, particularily for habitats of small spatial extent.     

Effects of sampling error and temporal correlations in population growth on process variance estimators

Estimates of a population’s growth rate and process variance from time-series data are often used to calculate risk metrics such as the probability of quasi-extinction, but temporal correlations in the data from sampling error, intrinsic population factors, or environmental conditions can bias process variance estimators and detrimentally affect risk predictions. It has been claimed (McNamara and Harding, Ecol Lett 7:16–20, 2004) that estimates of the long-term variance that incorporate observed temporal correlations in population growth are unaffected by sampling error; however, no estimation procedures were proposed for time-series data. We develop a suite of such long-term variance estimators, and use simulated data with temporally autocorrelated population growth and sampling error to evaluate their performance. In some cases, we get nearly unbiased long-term variance estimates despite ignoring sampling error, but the utility of these estimators is questionable because of large estimation uncertainty and difficulties in estimating correlation structure in practice. Process variance estimators that ignored temporal correlations generally gave more precise estimates of the variability in population growth and of the probability of quasi-extinction. We also found that the estimation of probability of quasi-extinction was greatly improved when quasi-extinction thresholds were set relatively close to population levels. Because of precision concerns, we recommend using simple models for risk estimates despite potential biases, and limiting inference to quantifying relative risk; e.g., changes in risk over time for a single population or comparative risk among populations.     

Heavy metals in potable groundwater of mining-affected river catchments,northwestern Romania

Groundwater, accessed using wells and municipal springs, represents the major source of potable water for the human population outside of major urban areas in northwestern Romania, a region with a long history of metal mining and metallurgy. The magnitude and spatial distribution of metal contamination in private-supply groundwater was investigated in four mining-affected river catchments in Maramureş and Satu Mare Counties through the collection of 144 groundwater samples. Bedrock geology, pH and Eh were found to be important controls on the solubility of metals in groundwater. Peak metal concentrations were found to occur in the Lapuş catchment, where metal levels exceed Dutch target and intervention values in up to 49% and 14% of samples, respectively. A 700 m wide corridor in the Lapuş catchment on either side of the main river channel was identified in which peak Cd (31 μg l⁻¹), Cu (50 μg l⁻¹), Pb (50 μg l⁻¹) and Zn (3,000 μg l⁻¹) concentrations were found to occur. Given the generally similar bedrock geologies, lower metal levels in other catchments are believed to reflect differences in the magnitude of metal loading to the local environment from both metal mining and other industrial and municipal sources. Sampling of groundwater in northwestern Romania has indicated areas of potential concern for human health, where heavy metal concentrations exceed accepted environmental quality guidelines. The presence of elevated metal levels in groundwater also has implications for the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) and achieving ‘good’ status for groundwater in this part of the Danube River Basin District (RBD).     

THE IMPORTANCE OF BEAVER TO WETLAND HABITATS AND WATERFOWL IN WYOMING1

ABSTRACT: Beaver (Castor canadensis) are habitat‐modifying keystone species, and their activities broadly influence many other plants and animals. Beaver are especially important to waterfowl in the western U.S. where riparian and wetland habitats comprise less than 2 percent of the landscape yet provide habitat for greater than 80 percent of wildlife species. Wyoming is currently ranked sixth of the 50 states in the size of its breeding waterfowl population, and beaver ponds may play a significant role in providing habitat for these birds. The objectives of this research were to: (1) identify streams in Wyoming where beaver are currently present, extirpated, or used to manage riparian habitat; (2) identify areas where beaver could be relocated to create wetlands and improve riparian habitat; (3) compare wetland surface areas between areas that have beaver with those that did not; and (4) compare waterfowl numbers in areas with and without beaver. Using a survey of 125 land managers in Wyoming, we found that beaver have been removed from 23 percent (6,497 kin) of the streams for which managers had direct knowledge (28,297 kin). The same managers estimated that there are over 3,500 km of streams where beaver could improve habitat conditions. The riparian width in streams with beaver ponds averaged 33.9 m (95 percent CI = 25.1–42.7 m) in contrast to 10.5 m (CI = 8.6–12.4 m) in streams without beaver. During waterfowl surveys we counted 7.5 ducks/km (CI = O.9–14.4 ducks/kin) of stream in areas with beaver ponds and only O.1 ducks/km (no CIs calculated) of stream in similar areas without beaver present. Beginning in 1994, we restored beaver to 14 streams throughout Wyoming in an effort to create wetlands and improve riparian habitat. Waterfowl have been quick to respond to these important habitats. We feel that beaver restoration and management can be used to improve habitat in drainages where conflicts with other land uses are minimal.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD1

ABSTRACT: Water from the Missouri River Basin is used for multiple purposes. The climatic change of doubling the atmospheric carbon dioxide may produce dramatic water yield changes across the basin. Estimated changes in basin water yield from doubled CO₂ climate were simulated using a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) and a physically based rainfall‐runoff model. RegCM output from a five‐year, equilibrium climate simulation at twice present CO₂ levels was compared to a similar present‐day climate run to extract monthly changes in meteorologic variables needed by the hydrologic model. These changes, simulated on a 50‐km grid, were matched at a commensurate scale to the 310 subbasin in the rainfall‐runoff model climate change impact analysis. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) rainfall‐runoff model was used in this study. The climate changes were applied to the 1965 to 1989 historic period. Overall water yield at the mouth of the Basin decreased by 10 to 20 percent during spring and summer months, but increased during fall and winter. Yields generally decreased in the southern portions of the basin but increased in the northern reaches. Northern subbasin yields increased up to 80 percent: equivalent to 1.3 cm of runoff on an annual basis.     

SIMULATING FLOW IN REGIONAL WETLANDS WITH THE MODFLOW WETLANDS PACKAGE1

ABSTRACT: As part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), various water supply projects have been proposed in a region located between the Miami metropolitan area and the extensive regional wetland systems that are part of the Everglades or remnant Everglades. A ground water flow model of the surficial aquifer within northern Miami‐Dade County was constructed using MODFLOW to evaluate the effects of these projects on water levels in the wetlands and the underlying surficial aquifer. The new Wetlands package was used to conjunctively simulate overland flow through these wetlands and the shallow ground water system. Comparisons of simulated to measured ground water levels and wetland stages were very satisfactory, where computed and measured water levels agreed within 0.5 ft over most of the period of record at nearly all of the monitoring sites. Temporal trends in water levels were also replicated. It was concluded that the assumptions and methodologies inherent to the Wetlands package were suitable for simulating regional wetland hydrology within the Everglades area.     

Co-Partnership in Forest Management: The Gwira-Banso Joint Forest Management Project in Ghana

The involvement of local communities, as well as the private sector and the government in forest management is now an important principle of tropical forestry policy and practice and a major component of most international forestry aid programmes. This paper present an analysis on the Joint Forest Management Project initiated by two timber companies (Ghana Primewood Products Ltd and Dalhoff Larsen & Horneman) in collaboration with local people in Gwira-Banso of Ghana. Conditions required for enhancing responsibility for and commitment to local forest management, and for an effective local participatory process were also analysed. The study began with the premise that incentives and good communication will enhance participation in joint forest management.The assumption was valid and the results from the survey showed that five broad issues prioritised by respondents to be essential for co-partnership in forest management are communication, financial support, tree planting, multiple land use and benefit sharing. The Project enjoys a great deal of support from the local community, but a number of factors make the continued support of local people a challenging task, including questions of immediate livelihood sources and tenure arrangements. Although this participatory forest management has been implemented over a relatively short period, there is evidence that government and private sectors can successfully involve local people in sustainable management of the forests.