Spatial modeling and prediction under stationary non-geometric range anisotropy

For modeling spatial processes, we propose a rich parametric class of stationary range anisotropic covariance structures that, when applied in R², greatly increases the scope of variogram contors. Geometric anisotropy, which provides the most common generalization of isotropy within stationarity, is a special case. Our class is built from monotonic isotropic correlation functions and special cases include the Matérn and the general exponential functions. As a result, our range anisotropic correlation specification can be attached to a second order stationary spatial process model, unlike ad hoc approaches to range anisotropy in the literature. We adopt a Bayesian perspective to obtain full inference and demonstrate how to fit the resulting model using sampling-based methods. In the presence of measurement error/microscale effect, we can obtain both the usual predictive as well as the noiseless predictive distribution. We analyze a data set of scallop catches under the general exponential range anisotropic model, withholding ten sites to compare the accuracy and precision of the standard and noiseless predictive distributions.     

Willow on Yellowstone's northern range: evidence for a trophic cascade?

Reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park in 1995-1996 has been argued to promote a trophic cascade by altering elk (Cervus elaphus) density, habitat-selection patterns, and behavior that, in turn, could lead to changes within the plant communities used by elk. We sampled two species of willow (Salix boothii and S. geyeriana) on the northern winter range to determine whether (1) there was quantitative evidence of increased willow growth following wolf reintroduction, (2) browsing by elk affected willow growth, and (3) any increase in growth observed was greater than that expected by climatic and hydrological factors alone, thereby indicating a trophic cascade caused by wolves. Using stem sectioning techniques to quantify historical growth patterns we found an approximately twofold increase in stem growth-ring area following wolf reintroduction for both species of willow. This increase could not be explained by climate and hydrological factors alone; the presence of wolves on the landscape was a significant predictor of stem growth above and beyond these abiotic factors. Growth-ring area was positively correlated with the previous year's ring area and negatively correlated with the percentage of twigs browsed from the stem during the winter preceding growth, indicating that elk browse impeded stem growth. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of a behaviorally mediated trophic cascade on Yellowstone's northern winter range following wolf reintroduction. We suggest that the community-altering effects of wolf restoration are an endorsement of ecological-process management in Yellowstone National Park.     

Selective harvesting and habitat loss produce long-term life history changes in a mouflon population.

We examined the long-term effects (28 years) of habitat loss and phenotype-based selective harvest on body mass, horn size, and horn shape of mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon) in southern France. This population has experienced habitat deterioration (loss of 50.8% of open area) since its introduction in 1956 and unrestricted selective hunting of the largest horned males since 1973. Both processes are predicted to lead to a decrease in phenotype quality by decreasing habitat quality and by reducing the reproductive contribution of individuals carrying traits that are targeted by hunters. Body mass and body size of both sexes and horn measurements of males markedly decreased (by 3.4-38.3%) in all age classes from the 1970s. Lamb body mass varied in relation to the spatiotemporal variation of habitat closure within the hunting-free reserve, suggesting that habitat closure explains part of these changes. However, the fact that there was no significant spatial variation in body mass in the early part of the study, when a decline in phenotypic quality already had occurred, provided support for the influence of selective harvesting. We also found that the allometric relationship between horn breadth and horn length changed over the study period. For a given horn length, horn breadth was lower during the second part of the study. This result, as well as changes in horn curve diameter, supports the interpretation that selective harvesting of males based on their horn configuration had evolutionary consequences for horn shape, since this phenotypic trait is less likely to be affected by changes in habitat characteristics. Moreover, males required more time (approximately four years) to develop a desirable trophy, suggesting that trophy hunting favors the reproductive contribution of animals with slow-growing horns. Managers should exploit hunters' desire for trophy males to finance management strategies which ensure a balance between the population and its environment. However, for long-term sustainable exploitation, harvest strategy should also ensure that selectively targeted males are allowed to contribute genetically to the next generations.     

Inter-litter competition and communal nursing among Norway rats: advantages of birth synchrony

Summary The effect of inter-litter competition on pup survival was investigated in pairs of female rats (Rattus norvegicus) living and breeding in the same environment. If a female gave birth when a 0- to 14-day-old litter was already present in the environment, her pups had a very high chance of surviving, similar to the situation in which no other litter was present. Moreover, the mother was likely to nurse communally with the mother of the 0- to 14-day-old litter. This communal nursing benefitted the newborn pups as evidenced by their being heavier at weaning than litters that were not nursed communally. In contrast, if a female gave birth when a 15-to 28-day-old litter was already present in the environment, her newborn pups were likely to die within 3 days postpartum, owing to the fact that they were often prevented from suckling at their mother's teats, resulting in milk deprivation, and were often beneath the older pups, resulting in physical trauma. These findings suggest that inter-litter competition is an important source of pup mortality when litters are born 15-28 days apart. The data are discussed in terms of the advantages of birth synchrony.     

Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?

In this paper, we examine temporal properties of 11 natural resource real price series from 1870 to 1990. Recent studies by Ahrens and Sharma [Trends in natural resource commodity prices: deterministic or stochastic? J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 33(1997)59–74], Berck and Roberts [Natural resource prices: will they ever turn up? J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 31(1996)65–78], and Slade [Grade selection under uncertainty: least cost last and other anomalies, J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 15(1988)189–205], among others, find that many non-renewable resource prices have a stochastic trend. We revisit this issue by employing a Lagrangian multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend. Contrary to previous research, we find evidence against the unit root hypothesis for all price series. Our findings support characterizing natural resource prices as stationary around deterministic trends with structural breaks. We additionally show that both pre-testing for unit roots with breaks and allowing for breaks in the forecast model can improve forecast accuracy. Overall, the results in this paper are important in both a positive and normative sense; without an appropriate understanding of the dynamics of a time series, empirical verification of theories, forecasting, and proper inference are potentially fruitless.     

Optimal taxation: Timber and externalities

The paper presents a model of the relationship between timber taxation and externalities. Optimal pigouvian taxation formulas are derived within this framework for common taxes. A simulation model of Douglas fir is used to estimate the size and direction of these effects. The results show that taxation policy can have a marked impact on the production of externalities, depending on tree species and land productivity.     

Principal biogeochemical factors affecting the speciation and transport of mercury through the terrestrial environment

It is increasingly becoming known that mercury transport and speciation in the terrestrial environment play major roles in methyl-mercury bioaccumulation potential in surface water. This review discusses the principal biogeochemical reactions affecting the transport and speciation of mercury in the terrestrial watershed. The issues presented are mercury-ligand formation, mercury adsorption/desorption, and elemental mercury reduction and volatilization. In terrestrial environments, OH-, Cl- and S- ions have the largest influence on ligand formation. Under oxidized surface soil conditions Hg(OH)2, HgCl2, HgOH+, HgS, and Hg0 are the predominant inorganic mercury forms. In reduced environments, common mercury forms are HgSH+, HgOHSH, and HgClSH. Many of these mercury forms are further bound to organic and inorganic ligands. Mercury adsorption to mineral and organic surfaces is mainly dictated by two factors: pH and dissolved ions. An increase in Cl- concentration and a decrease in pH can, together or separately, decrease mercury adsorption. Clay and organic soils have the highest capability of adsorbing mercury. Important parameters that increase abiotic inorganic mercury reduction are availability of electron donors, low redox potential, and sunlight intensity. Primary factors that increase volatilization are soil permeability and temperature. A decrease in mercury adsorption and an increase in soil moisture will also increase volatilization. The effect of climate on biogeochemical reactions in the terrestrial watershed indicates mercury speciation and transport to receiving water will vary on a regional basis.     

Model-based combination of spatial information for stream networks

Evolutionary improvements in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) now routinely allow the management and mapping of spatial-temporal information. In response, the development of statistical models to combine information of different types and spatial support is of vital importance to environmental science. In this paper we develop a hierarchical spatial statistical model for environmental indicators of stream and river systems in the United States Mid-Atlantic Region by combining information from separate monitoring surveys, available contextual information on hydrologic units and remote sensing information. These models are used to estimate the indicators throughout the riverine system based on information from multiple sources and aggregate scales. The analysis is based on information underlying the Landscape Atlas of the mid-Atlantic region produced by the US Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). We also combine information from two overlapping separate monitoring surveys, the EMAP Stream and River Survey and the Maryland Biological Streams Survey. We present a general framework for comparative distributional analysis based on the concept of a relative spatial distribution. As an application, the spatial model is used to predict spatial distributions and relative spatial distributions for a watershed.     

No cost of male mating experience on female reproductive success in the almond moth, <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Cadra cautella</Emphasis> (Lepidoptera; Pyralidae)

Male copulation experience may have a profound impact on female reproductive success if male reproductive investment declines over consecutive copulations and if females are unlikely to re-mate. Male reproductive investment is particularly interesting in lepidopterans because males produce dimorphic sperm: a fertilizing (eupyrene) and a non-fertilising (apyrene) sperm. In two experiments, we explored the lifetime reproductive investment of male almond moths, Cadra cautella (also known as Ephestia cautella) and examined its influence on female reproductive success. In the almond moth, females re-mate infrequently and males transfer sperm in a spermatophore. Attached to the spermatophore is a large chitinous process, the function of which is unknown. One group of males were permitted consecutive copulations with virgin females and the amount of sperm and size of the spermatophore transferred were compared for all females. We found that the number of both eupyrene and apyrene sperm per ejaculate decreased with his increased mating frequency, while the size of the spermatophore process decreased dramatically after the male’s first copulation. In a second experiment, we allowed males to mate with females throughout their lives and then compared female fecundity and fertilisation success. We found no obvious decrease in female fecundity and fertilisation success with increased male copulation experience, despite the likely reduction in male gametic investment. We discuss potential explanations for the development of this enlarged and elaborate first spermatophore of male almond moths given that it confers no clear fitness advantage to females.