1979～1996年期间泰国沿海各府造成红树林减少的经济学和人口学因素

本文分析了泰国沿海各府确定将红树林转为商业性养虾用地的经济学和人口学因素.因此红树林的转化取决于给养虾人的回报(即虾的价格)、养虾投入的成本(即饲料价格和工人的工资)和红树林地区的"可利用性".另外,人均收入、人口增长和人口的迁入(即养虾场的数量)等外在因素也是很重要的.我们通过对1979～1996年期间泰国沿海21个府进行的分组调查,对红树林的转化和养虾场的扩大进行了实验性调查.结果显示,由于养虾业的发展,虾的价格、最低工资、离市场的距离、饲料价格、人口增长、人均收入以及养虾场的密度都对泰国红树林的转化造成了重要影响.     

NitroGenius:氮决策支持系统--荷兰氮污染问题最佳解决方案的一个游戏模拟实验

利用计算机模拟的方法,我们为第二届国际氮会议研制开发了一个游戏形式的氮决策支持系统.研制这一系统的目的是:①使科学工作者和决策者们都能认识到荷兰氮污染问题的复杂性,因为荷兰是一个农业、工业和运输业活动密集的区域;②探索以最低的社会经济代价解决氮污染的最佳方案.NitroGenius由有关时空范围内的氮流动模型组成,其中包括氨和氮氧化合物的释放及其对地表水和地下水的污染.NitroGenius中还包括了一个经济模型,它描述了各个重要经济部门之间的关系,以及不同氮排放控制措施对国民生产总值(GDP)、失业率、能源消耗和环境的影响.在第二次国际氮会议期间,大约有50个研究组对NitroGenius进行了测试,结果表明,如果认真进行计划并选择适当的治理措施,就能够以适当的代价解决荷兰的氮污染问题.     

Spatio-temporal patterns in county-level incidence and reporting of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States, 1990–2000

We present an exploratory analysis of reported county-specific incidence of Lyme disease in the northeastern United States for the years 1990–2000. We briefly review the disease ecology of Lyme disease and the use of risk maps to describe local incidence as estimates of local risk of disease. We place the relevant elements of local environmental and ecological variables, local disease incidence, and (importantly) local disease reporting in a conceptual context to frame our analysis. We then apply hierarchical linear models of increasing complexity to summarize observed patterns in reported incidence, borrowing information across counties to improve local precision. We find areas of increasing incidence in the central northeastern Atlantic coast counties, increasing incidence branching to the north and west, and an area of fairly stable and slightly decreasing reported incidence in western New York.     

Inferring Threat from Scientific Collections

Exact formulas for the probability of extinction or change in the conservation status of species are described for data based on frequency of sighting. These formulas generalize an expression previously described for the probability of extinction from (binary) sighting data. The formulas will be used in contexts where sightings are recorded as frequencies, such as when observations are aggregated in time. We argue that computing the probability of extinction or change in conservation status will be most useful for setting conservation priorities and in screening large data sets contained in museum and herbarium collections and in biological resource inventories.     

Sexual selection and spring arrival times of red-necked and Wilson's phalaropes

Summary Seasonal changes in sex ratios during a 4-year study of red-necked phalaropes and a 3-year study of Wilson's phalaropes showed that females preceded males to breeding and/or courtship areas. The degree to which females preceded males may have been constrained by harsh weather, as the arrival of red-necked phalaropes was synchronous in 1983, when spring was unusually late. Neither sex defended territories; females competed vigorously for direct access to males. These findings show that selection for sexually asynchronous arrival need not act through territoriality. We interpret early female arrival as an adaptation for obtaining mates and coclude that sexual selection may be an important determinant of arrival times in mate defense social systems.     

Finding all optimal solutions to the reserve site selection problem: formulation and computational analysis

The problem of selecting nature reserves has received increased attention in the literature during the past decade, and a variety of approaches have been promoted for selecting those sites to include in a reserve network. One set of techniques employs heuristic algorithms and thus provides possibly sub-optimal solutions. Another set of models and accompanying algorithms uses an integer programming formulation of the problem, resulting in an optimization problem known as the Maximal Covering Problem, or MCP. Solution of the MCP provides an optimal solution to the reserve site selection problem, and while various algorithms can be employed for solving the MCP they all suffer from the disadvantage of providing a single optimal solution dictating the selection of areas for conservation. In order to provide complete information to decision makers, the determination of all alternate optimal solutions is necessary. This paper explores two procedures for finding all such solutions. We describe the formulation and motivation of each method. A computational analysis on a data set describing native terrestrial vertebrates in the state of Oregon illustrates the effectiveness of each approach.     

Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: habitat-based approach for endangered greater sage-grouse.

Detailed empirical models predicting both species occurrence and fitness across a landscape are necessary to understand processes related to population persistence. Failure to consider both occurrence and fitness may result in incorrect assessments of habitat importance leading to inappropriate management strategies. We took a two-stage approach to identifying critical nesting and brood-rearing habitat for the endangered Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Alberta at a landscape scale. First, we used logistic regression to develop spatial models predicting the relative probability of use (occurrence) for Sage-Grouse nests and broods. Secondly, we used Cox proportional hazards survival models to identify the most risky habitats across the landscape. We combined these two approaches to identify Sage-Grouse habitats that pose minimal risk of failure (source habitats) and attractive sink habitats that pose increased risk (ecological traps). Our models showed that Sage-Grouse select for heterogeneous patches of moderate sagebrush cover (quadratic relationship) and avoid anthropogenic edge habitat for nesting. Nests were more successful in heterogeneous habitats, but nest success was independent of anthropogenic features. Similarly, broods selected heterogeneous high-productivity habitats with sagebrush while avoiding human developments, cultivated cropland, and high densities of oil wells. Chick mortalities tended to occur in proximity to oil and gas developments and along riparian habitats. For nests and broods, respectively, approximately 10% and 5% of the study area was considered source habitat, whereas 19% and 15% of habitat was attractive sink habitat. Limited source habitats appear to be the main reason for poor nest success (39%) and low chick survival (12%). Our habitat models identify areas of protection priority and areas that require immediate management attention to enhance recruitment to secure the viability of this population. This novel approach to habitat-based population viability modeling has merit for many species of concern.     

Relatedness,recognition errors,and colony fusion in the termite <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nasutitermes corniger</Emphasis>

Loss of aggression between social groups can have far-reaching effects on the structure of societies and populations. We tested whether variation in the genetic structure of colonies of the termite Nasutitermes corniger affects the probability of aggression toward non-nestmates and the ability of unrelated colonies to fuse. We determined the genotypes of workers and soldiers from 120 colonies at seven polymorphic microsatellite loci. Twenty-seven colonies contained offspring of multiple founding queens or kings, yielding an average within-colony relatedness of 0.33. Genotypes in the remaining 93 colonies were consistent with reproduction by a single queen and king or their progeny, with an average within-colony relatedness of 0.51. In standardized assays, the probability of aggression between workers and soldiers from different colonies was an increasing function of within-colony relatedness. The probability of aggression was not affected significantly by the degree of relatedness between colonies, which was near zero in all cases, or by whether the colonies were neighbors. To test whether these assays of aggression predict the potential for colony fusion in the field, we transplanted selected nests to new locations. Workers and soldiers from colonies that were mutually tolerant in laboratory assays joined their nests without fighting, but workers and soldiers that were mutually aggressive in the assays initiated massive battles. These results suggest that the presence of multiple unrelated queens or kings promotes recognition errors, which can lead to the formation of more complex colony structures.     

Is reduced clutch size a cost of parental care in Eastern Phoebes (Sayornis phoebe)?

What is the cost of parental care in birds? Previous studies using observational and experimental techniques on nest building and clutch sizes in a small migrant flycatcher, the Eastern Phoebe (Sayornis phoebe), led to contradictory results that did not show a consistent cost of current reproductive effort on residual reproductive output. The data presented here indicate that different elements of parental behaviors are indeed costly because they reduce various aspects of phoebes' subsequent reproductive performance. Experimental removal of old nesting structures at previously used breeding sites reduced but did not eliminate the chance of phoebes' settlement in the subsequent year. Comparing sites at which phoebes did and did not build new nests showed that nest builders completed their first clutches later, had lower probabilities of second breeding attempts, and more often lost their nesting attempt due to fallen nest structures than nest reusers. There was, however, no significant effect of nest building on the clutch sizes and rates of cowbird parasitism of first nesting attempts. Overall, sites with newly built nests had lower seasonal reproductive effort than sites with reused nests. I also examined phoebes' relative residual reproductive output in a separate breeding season when nest building was not experimentally manipulated. When controlled for confounding variables this analysis indicated that in those phoebes that did breed for a second time, the relative decrease of the sizes of first to presumed second clutches was greater at sites where first breeding attempts consisted of more total nestlings. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that parental care is costly in Eastern Phoebes and support predictions of trade-offs between the nest building, brood care, and residual egg-investment components of reproduction.