Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505?C2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data.     

Water Stress Projections for the Northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and Ecological Consequences

Future climate and land‐use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast and Midwest and (2) native fish species richness (i.e., number of species) for the Upper Mississippi water resource region (UMWRR). Six alternative scenarios of climate change, land‐use change, and human population growth indicated future water supplies will, on average across the region, be adequate to meet anthropogenic demands. Nevertheless, the number of individual watersheds experiencing severe stress (demand > supplies) was projected to increase for most scenarios, and some watersheds were projected to experience severe stress under multiple scenarios. Similarly, we projected declines in fish species richness for UMWRR watersheds and found the number of watersheds with projected declines and the average magnitude of declines varied across scenarios. All watersheds in the UMWRR were projected to experience declines in richness for at least two future scenarios. Many watersheds projected to experience declines in fish species richness were not projected to experience severe anthropogenic water stress, emphasizing the need for multidimensional impact assessments of changing water resources.     

Relationship between mass-flux reduction and source-zone mass removal: analysis of field data

The magnitude of contaminant mass-flux reduction associated with a specific amount of contaminant mass removed is a key consideration for evaluating the effectiveness of a source-zone remediation effort. Thus, there is great interest in characterizing, estimating, and predicting relationships between mass-flux reduction and mass removal. Published data collected for several field studies were examined to evaluate relationships between mass-flux reduction and source-zone mass removal. The studies analyzed herein represent a variety of source-zone architectures, immiscible-liquid compositions, and implemented remediation technologies. There are two general approaches to characterizing the mass-flux-reduction/mass-removal relationship, end-point analysis and time-continuous analysis. End-point analysis, based on comparing masses and mass fluxes measured before and after a source-zone remediation effort, was conducted for 21 remediation projects. Mass removals were greater than 60% for all but three of the studies. Mass-flux reductions ranging from slightly less than to slightly greater than one-to-one were observed for the majority of the sites. However, these single-snapshot characterizations are limited in that the antecedent behavior is indeterminate. Time-continuous analysis, based on continuous monitoring of mass removal and mass flux, was performed for two sites, both for which data were obtained under water-flushing conditions. The reductions in mass flux were significantly different for the two sites (90% vs. approximately 8%) for similar mass removals ( approximately 40%). These results illustrate the dependence of the mass-flux-reduction/mass-removal relationship on source-zone architecture and associated mass-transfer processes. Minimal mass-flux reduction was observed for a system wherein mass removal was relatively efficient (ideal mass-transfer and displacement). Conversely, a significant degree of mass-flux reduction was observed for a site wherein mass removal was inefficient (non-ideal mass-transfer and displacement). The mass-flux-reduction/mass-removal relationship for the latter site exhibited a multi-step behavior, which cannot be predicted using some of the available simple estimation functions.     

Mercury species measured atop the Moody Tower TRAMP site,Houston, Texas

Atmospheric mercury speciation was monitored within Houston, Texas, USA, August 6–October 14, 2006 as part of the TexAQS Radical and Aerosol Measurement Program (TRAMP). On average, all mercury levels were significantly elevated compared to a rural Gulf of Mexico coastal site. Concentrations varied from very clean to very dirty. Multi-day periods of stagnant or low-wind conditions brought elevated concentrations of all mercury species, whereas multi-day periods of strong winds, particularly southerly winds off the Gulf of Mexico, brought very low values of mercury species. Over the entire mercury measurement period, the daily averages of mercury species showed distinct and consistent relationships with the average planetary boundary layer dynamics, with gaseous elemental and particulate-bound mercury near-surface concentrations enhanced by a shallow nocturnal boundary layer, and reactive gaseous mercury concentration enhanced by midday convective boundary layer air entrainment transporting air aloft to the surface. Mercury concentrations were not significantly correlated with known products of combustion, likely indicating non-combustion mercury sources from the Houston area petrochemical complexes. On the morning of August 31, 2006 an observed emission event at a refinery complex on the Houston Ship Channel resulted in extremely high concentrations of aerosol mass and particulate-bound mercury at the TRAMP measurement site 20 km downwind.     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

Permitting a new mine: Insights from the community debate

When a mining company selects a site for development, the company begins a dialogue with the local community about receiving the necessary approvals for the mining permits. The dialogue focuses on how well the company can use science and technology to manage risk to the local environment, and on how much economic benefit will be gained by the local community for accepting the risk. A useful approach to better understand how the debate affects the outcome of the permitting effort is to use the method of “discourse communities and analysis”. This paper analyzes two efforts by Kennecott (Rio Tinto) and one by Exxon to develop base metal mine sites in the Upper Midwest of the USA. As the three case studies show, the local pro- and anti-mining discourse community members will not be changing their basic positions as the permitting of a new mine is debated. Accordingly, both communities are trying to convince undecided stakeholders rather than talking to each other. Both sides are using ever more sophisticated media methods to communicate their message to the undecided residents of the community. By winning the support of the majority of the undecided residents, political pressure can be used to sway the decision.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

The making of fetal surgery

Fetal diagnosis prompts the question for fetal therapy in highly selected cases. Some conditions are suitable for in utero surgical intervention. This paper reviews historically important steps in the development of fetal surgery. The first invasive fetal intervention in 1963 was an intra-uterine blood transfusion. It took another 20 years to understand the pathophysiology of other candidate fetal conditions and to develop safe anaesthetic and surgical techniques before the team at the University of California at San Francisco performed its first urinary diversion through hysterotomy. This procedure would be abandoned as renal and pulmonary function could be just as effectively salvaged by ultrasound-guided insertion of a bladder shunt. Fetoscopy is another method for direct access to the feto-placental unit. It was historically used for fetal visualisation to guide biopsies or for vascular access but was also abandoned following the introduction of high-resolution ultrasound. Miniaturisation revived fetoscopy in the 1990s, since when it has been successfully used to operate on the placenta and umbilical cord. Today, it is also used in fetuses with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH), in whom lung growth is triggered by percutaneous tracheal occlusion. It can also be used to diagnose and treat urinary obstruction. Many fetal interventions remain investigational but for a number of conditions randomised trials have established the role of in utero surgery, making fetal surgery a clinical reality in a number of fetal therapy programmes. The safety of fetal surgery is such that even non-lethal conditions, such as myelomeningocoele repair, are at this moment considered a potential indication. This, as well as fetal intervention for CDH, is currently being investigated in randomised trials. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contaminant dynamics: Key to remedial performance and regulatory relief

Remediation results depend on thorough consideration of all the forces that influence contaminant behavior, including how the contaminant is distributed and the site's hydrogeology, as well as the physical, chemical, and biological factors involved in contaminant mobility and persistence. This information supports a cleanup project's initial investigation, helping decide the goals of the later remediation method, the usefulness of specific technologies, and the method's ultimate performance. This article discusses how the principal environmental and chemical processes influence contaminant fate and transport and explores four case histories that illustrate how that influence can help predict whether a project's goals are achievable, whether the project is needed at all, and whether those goals were actually achieved.     

Measuring and Incorporating Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

Conservation planning is the process of locating and designing conservation areas to promote the persistence of biodiversity in situ. To do this, conservation areas must be able to mitigate at least some of the proximate threats to biodiversity. Information on threatening processes and the relative vulnerability of areas and natural features to these processes is therefore crucial for effective conservation planning. However, measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning have been problematic. We develop a conceptual framework of the role of vulnerability assessments in conservation planning and propose a definition of vulnerability that incorporates three dimensions: exposure, intensity, and impact. We review and categorize methods for assessing the vulnerability of areas and the features they contain and identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of each broad approach. Our review highlights the need for further development and evaluation of approaches to assess vulnerability and for comparisons of their relative effectiveness.