Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?

In this paper, we examine temporal properties of 11 natural resource real price series from 1870 to 1990. Recent studies by Ahrens and Sharma [Trends in natural resource commodity prices: deterministic or stochastic? J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 33(1997)59–74], Berck and Roberts [Natural resource prices: will they ever turn up? J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 31(1996)65–78], and Slade [Grade selection under uncertainty: least cost last and other anomalies, J. Environ. Econom. Manage. 15(1988)189–205], among others, find that many non-renewable resource prices have a stochastic trend. We revisit this issue by employing a Lagrangian multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend. Contrary to previous research, we find evidence against the unit root hypothesis for all price series. Our findings support characterizing natural resource prices as stationary around deterministic trends with structural breaks. We additionally show that both pre-testing for unit roots with breaks and allowing for breaks in the forecast model can improve forecast accuracy. Overall, the results in this paper are important in both a positive and normative sense; without an appropriate understanding of the dynamics of a time series, empirical verification of theories, forecasting, and proper inference are potentially fruitless.     

Jellyfish aggregations and leatherback turtle foraging patterns in a temperate coastal environment

Leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) are obligate predators of gelatinous zooplankton. However, the spatial relationship between predator and prey remains poorly understood beyond sporadic and localized reports. To examine how jellyfish (Phylum Cnidaria: Orders Semaeostomeae and Rhizostomeae) might drive the broad-scale distribution of this wide ranging species, we employed aerial surveys to map jellyfish throughout a temperate coastal shelf area bordering the northeast Atlantic. Previously unknown, consistent aggregations of Rhizostoma octopus extending over tens of square kilometers were identified in distinct coastal "hotspots" during consecutive years (2003-2005). Examination of retrospective sightings data (>50 yr) suggested that 22.5% of leatherback distribution could be explained by these hotspots, with the inference that these coastal features may be sufficiently consistent in space and time to drive long-term foraging associations.     

Physiological costs of compensatory growth in a damselfly

Little is known about physiological costs of rapid growth. We successfully generated compensatory growth to time stress and transient food stress in the damselfly Lestes viridis and studied the physiological correlates of the resulting reduced ability to cope with starvation. We found evidence for both mechanisms proposed to underlie the physiological trade-off: compensatory growth was associated with (1) a higher metabolic rate, as indicated by a higher oxygen consumption and a faster depletion of energy storage molecules (glycogen and triglycerides), and (2) a smaller investment in energy storage. The former may also explain why storage molecules after emergence were negatively affected by time stress and food stress, despite the successful compensation before emergence. These deferred physiological costs of rapid growth have the potential to couple larval stresses to adult fitness irrespective of age and size at emergence, and they may partly explain why many animals do not show their maximum achievable growth rate.     

Chemically mediated competition between microbes and animals: microbes as consumers in food webs

Microbes are known to affect ecosystems and communities as decomposers, pathogens, and mutualists. However, they also may function as classic consumers and competitors with animals if they chemically deter larger consumers from using rich food-falls such as carrion, fruits, and seeds that can represent critical windfalls to both microbes and animals. Microbes often use chemicals (i.e., antibiotics) to compete against other microbes. Thus using chemicals against larger competitors might be expected and could redirect significant energy subsidies from upper trophic levels to the detrital pathway. When we baited traps in a coastal marine ecosystem with fresh vs. microbe-laden fish carrion, fresh carrion attracted 2.6 times as many animals per trap as microbe-laden carrion. This resulted from fresh carrion being found more frequently and from attracting more animals when found. Microbe-laden carrion was four times more likely to be uncolonized by large consumers than was fresh carrion. In the lab, the most common animal found in our traps (the stone crab Menippe mercenaria) ate fresh carrion 2.4 times more frequently than microbe-laden carrion. Bacteria-removal experiments and feeding bioassays using organic extracts of microbe-laden carrion showed that bacteria produced noxious chemicals that deterred animal consumers. Thus bacteria compete with large animal scavengers by rendering carcasses chemically repugnant. Because food-fall resources such as carrion are major food subsidies in many ecosystems, chemically mediated competition between microbes and animals could be an important, common, but underappreciated interaction within many communities.     

Quantifying relationships between bird and butterfly community shifts and environmental change.

Quantifying the manner in which ecological communities respond during a time of decreasing precipitation is a first step in understanding how they will respond to longer-term climate change. Here we coupled analysis of interannual variability in remotely sensed data with analyses of bird and butterfly community changes in montane meadow communities of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Landsat satellite imagery was used to classify these meadows into six types along a hydrological gradient. The northern portion of the ecosystem, or Gallatin region, has smaller mean patch sizes separated by ridges of mountains, whereas the southern portion of the ecosystem, or Teton region, has much larger patches within the Jackson Hole valley. Both support a similar suite of butterfly and bird species. The Gallatin region showed more overall among-year variation in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) when meadow types were pooled within regions, perhaps because the patch sizes are smaller on average. Bird and butterfly communities showed significant relationships relative to meadow type and NDVI. We identified several key species that are tightly associated with specific meadow types along the hydrological gradient. Comparing taxonomic groups, fewer birds showed specific habitat affinities than butterflies, perhaps because birds are responding to differences in habitat structure among meadow types and using the landscape at a coarser scale than the butterflies. Comparing regions, the Teton region showed higher predictability of community assemblages as compared to the Gallatin region. The Gallatin region exhibited more significant temporal trends with respect to butterflies. Butterfly communities in wet meadows showed a distinctive shift along the hydrological gradient during a drought period (1997-2000). These results imply that the larger Teton meadows will show more predictable (i.e., static) species-habitat associations over the long term, but that the smaller Gallatin meadows may be an area that will exhibit the effects of global climate change faster.     

Assessment of Long-Term Trends in Fish Distributions at Multiple Scales Decreases Uncertainty Associated with Historical Datasets

Environmental Management - Monitoring long-term changes in aquatic biodiversity requires the effective use of historical data that were collected with different methods and varying levels of...     

Biological and chemical assessments of zinc ageing in field soils

As zinc (Zn) is both an essential trace element and potential toxicant, the effects of Zn fixation in soil are of practical significance. Soil samples from four field sites amended with ZnSO₄ were used to investigate ageing of soluble Zn under field conditions over a 2-year period. Lability of Zn measured using ⁶⁵Zn radioisotope dilution showed a significant decrease over time and hence evidence of Zn fixation in three of the four soils. However, 0.01 M CaCl₂ extractions and toxicity measurements using a genetically modified lux-marked bacterial biosensor did not indicate a decrease in soluble/bioavailable Zn over time. This was attributed to the strong regulatory effect of abiotic properties such as pH on these latter measurements. These results also showed that Zn ageing occurred immediately after Zn spiking, emphasising the need to incubate freshly spiked soils before ecotoxicity assessments.     

Will photosynthetic capacity of aspen trees acclimate after long-term exposure to elevated CO2 and O3?

Photosynthetic acclimation under elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) and/or ozone (O₃) has been the topic of discussion in many papers recently. We examined whether or not aspen plants grown under elevated CO₂ and/or O₃ will acclimate after 11 years of exposure at the Aspen Face site in Rhinelander, WI, USA. We studied diurnal patterns of instantaneous photosynthetic measurements as well as A/C_i measurements monthly during the 2004-2008 growing seasons. Our results suggest that the responses of two aspen clones differing in O₃ sensitivity showed no evidence of photosynthetic and stomatal acclimation under either elevated CO₂, O₃ or CO₂ + O₃. Both clones 42E and 271 did not show photosynthetic nor stomatal acclimation under elevated CO₂ and O₃ after a decade of exposure. We found that the degree of increase or decrease in the photosynthesis and stomatal conductance varied significantly from day to day and from one season to another.     

Influence of regional development policies and clean technology adoption on future air pollution exposure

Future air pollution emissions in the year 2030 were estimated for the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in central California using a combined system of land use, mobile, off-road, stationary, area, and biogenic emissions models. Four scenarios were developed that use different assumptions about the density of development and level of investment in transportation infrastructure to accommodate the expected doubling of the SJV population in the next 20 years. Scenario 1 reflects current land-use patterns and infrastructure while scenario 2 encouraged compact urban footprints including redevelopment of existing urban centers and investments in transit. Scenario 3 allowed sprawling development in the SJV with reduced population density in existing urban centers and construction of all planned freeways. Scenario 4 followed currently adopted land use and transportation plans for the SJV. The air quality resulting from these urban development scenarios was evaluated using meteorology from a winter stagnation event that occurred on December 15th, 2000 to January 7th 2001. Predicted base-case PM2.5 mass concentrations within the region exceeded 35 μg m^?3 over the 22-day episode. Compact growth reduced the PM2.5 concentrations by ～1 μg m^?3 relative to the base-case over most of the SJV with the exception of increases (～1 μg m^?3) in urban centers driven by increased concentrations of elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC). Low-density development increased the PM2.5 concentrations by 1–4 μg m^?3 over most of the region, with decreases (0.5–2 μg m^?3) around urban areas. Population-weighted average PM2.5 concentrations were very similar for all development scenarios ranging between 16 and 17.4 μg m^?3. Exposure to primary PM components such as EC and OC increased 10–15% for high density development scenarios and decreased by 11–19% for low-density scenarios. Patterns for secondary PM components such as nitrate and ammonium ion were almost exactly reversed, with a 10% increase under low-density development and a 5% decrease under high density development. The increased human exposure to primary pollutants such as EC and OC could be predicted using a simplified analysis of population-weighted primary emissions. Regional planning agencies should develop thresholds of population-weighted primary emissions exposure to guide the development of growth plans. This metric will allow them to actively reduce the potential negative impacts of compact growth while preserving the benefits.     

Transport and retention of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts in sandy soils

A series of miscible-displacement experiments was conducted to examine the retention and transport behavior of oocysts in natural porous media. Three soils and a model sand were used that differed in physical and geochemical properties. Transport behavior was examined under various treatment conditions to help evaluate retention mechanisms. Significant retention of oocysts was observed for all media despite the fact that conditions were unfavorable for physicochemical interactions with respect to DLVO theory. The magnitude of retention was not influenced significantly by alterations in solution chemistry (reduction in ionic strength) or soil surface properties (removal of soil organic matter and metal oxides). On the basis of the observed results, it appears that retention by secondary energy minima or geochemical microdomains was minimal for these systems. The porous media used for the experiments exhibited large magnitudes of surface roughness, and it is suggested that this surface roughness contributed significantly to oocyst retention.