Climate, hydrologic disturbance, and succession: drivers of floodplain pattern

Floodplains are among the world's most threatened ecosystems due to the pervasiveness of dams, levee systems, and other modifications to rivers. Few unaltered floodplains remain where we may examine their dynamics over decadal time scales. Our study provides a detailed examination of landscape change over a 60-year period (1945-2004) on the Nyack floodplain of the Middle Fork of the Flathead River, a free-flowing, gravel-bed river in northwest Montana, USA. We used historical aerial photographs and airborne and satellite imagery to delineate habitats (i.e., mature forest, regenerative forest, water, cobble) within the floodplain. We related changes in the distribution and size of these habitats to hydrologic disturbance and regional climate. Results show a relationship between changes in floodplain habitats and annual flood magnitude, as well as between hydrology and the cooling and warming phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Large magnitude floods and greater frequency of moderate floods were associated with the cooling phases of the PDO, resulting in a floodplain environment dominated by extensive restructuring and regeneration of floodplain habitats. Conversely, warming phases of the PDO corresponded with decreases in magnitude, duration, and frequency of critical flows, creating a floodplain environment dominated by late successional vegetation and low levels of physical restructuring. Over the 60-year time series, habitat change was widespread throughout the floodplain, though the relative abundances of the habitats did not change greatly. We conclude that the long- and short-term interactions of climate, floods, and plant succession produce a shifting habitat mosaic that is a fundamental attribute of natural floodplain ecosystems.     

An occupancy‐based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so‐called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889–2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post‐development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34‐61) and 15% (95% CI 6‐33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001?2011), top performing (based on AIC_c) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.     

The Influence of Study Species Selection on Estimates of Pesticide Exposure in Free-Ranging Birds

Field studies of pesticide effects on birds often utilize indicator species with the purpose of extrapolating to other avian taxa. Little guidance exists for choosing indicator species to monitor the presence and/or effects of contaminants that are labile in the environment or body, but are acutely toxic, such as anticholinesterase (anti-ChE) insecticides. Use of an indicator species that does not represent maximum exposure and/or effects could lead to inaccurate risk estimates. Our objective was to test the relevance of a priori selection of indicator species for a study on pesticide exposure to birds inhabiting fruit orchards. We used total plasma ChE activity and ChE reactivation to describe the variability in anti-ChE pesticide exposure among avian species in two conventionally managed fruit orchards. Of seven species included in statistical analyses, the less common species, chipping sparrow (Spizella passerina), showed the greatest percentage of exposed individuals and the greatest ChE depression, whereas the two most common species, American robins (Turdus migratorius) and gray catbirds (Dumatella carolinensis), did not show significant exposure. Due to their lower abundance, chipping sparrows would have been an unlikely choice for study. Our results show that selection of indicator species using traditionally accepted criteria such as abundance and ease of collection may not identify species that are at greatest risk. Our efforts also demonstrate the usefulness of conducting multiple-species pilot studies prior to initiating detailed studies on pesticide effects. A study such as ours can help focus research and resources on study species that are most appropriate.     

A synthesis of convergent reflections,tensions and silences in linking gender and global environmental change research

This synthesis article joins the authors of the special issue “Gender perspectives in resilience, vulnerability and adaptation to global environmental change” in a common reflective dialogue about the main contributions of their papers. In sum, here we reflect on links between gender and feminist approaches to research in adaptation and resilience in global environmental change (GEC). The main theoretical contributions of this special issue are threefold: emphasizing the relevance of power relations in feminist political ecology, bringing the livelihood and intersectionality approaches into GEC, and linking resilience theories and critical feminist research. Empirical insights on key debates in GEC studies are also highlighted from the nine cases analysed, from Europe, the Americas, Asia, Africa and the Pacific. Further, the special issue also contributes to broaden the gender approach in adaptation to GEC by incorporating research sites in the Global North alongside sites from the Global South. This paper examines and compares the main approaches adopted (e.g. qualitative or mixed methods) and the methodological challenges that derive from intersectional perspectives. Finally, key messages for policy agendas and further research are drawn from the common reflection.     

Chloramine demand estimation using surrogate chemical and microbiological parameters

A model is developed to enable estimation of chloramine demand in full scale drinking water supplies based on chemical and microbiological factors that affect chloramine decay rate via nonlinear regression analysis method. The model is based on organic character (specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA)) of the water samples and a laboratory measure of the microbiological (F m ) decay of chloramine. The applicability of the model for estimation of chloramine residual (and hence chloramine demand) was tested on several waters from different water treatment plants in Australia through statistical test analysis between the experimental and predicted data. Results showed that the model was able to simulate and estimate chloramine demand at various times in real drinking water systems. To elucidate the loss of chloramine over the wide variation of water quality used in this study, the model incorporates both the fast and slow chloramine decay pathways. The significance of estimated fast and slow decay rate constants as the kinetic parameters of the model for three water sources in Australia was discussed. It was found that with the same water source, the kinetic parameters remain the same. This modelling approach has the potential to be used by water treatment operators as a decision support tool in order to manage chloramine disinfection.     

A within‐individual study of interpersonal conflict as a work stressor: Dispositional and situational moderators

Focusing on interpersonal conflict as a work stressor, the authors used a within‐subjects research design to examine the effect of conflict episodes on employees' negative affect on the job. The roles of agreeableness and social support in moderating the negative effects of conflict episodes were also examined. A two‐week experience‐sampling study revealed that interpersonal conflict influenced employees' intraindividual fluctuations in negative affect. As predicted, agreeableness and social support influenced individuals' patterns of affective responses to conflict, such that conflict was more strongly associated with negative affect for agreeable employees, and for those with lower levels of social support at work. Overall, the results suggest that both personality (agreeableness) and context (social support) significantly moderate the affective implications of interpersonal conflict at work. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Microbial and environmental effects on avian egg viability: do tropical mechanisms act in a temperate environment?

The viability of freshly laid avian eggs declines after several days of exposure to ambient temperatures above physiological zero, and declines occur faster in tropical than temperate ecosystems. Microbial infection during preincubation exposure has recently been shown as a second cause of egg viability decline in the tropics, but whether microbial processes influence the viability of wild bird eggs in temperate ecosystems is unknown. We determined the microbial load on eggshells, the incidence of microbial penetration of egg contents, and changes in the viability of wild bird eggs (Sialia mexicana, Tachycineta bicolor, Tachycineta thalassina) experimentally exposed to temperate-zone ambient conditions in situ in a mediterranean climate in northern California. Initial microbial loads on eggshells were generally low, although they were significantly higher on eggs laid in old boxes than in new boxes. Eggshell microbial loads did not increase with exposure to ambient conditions, were not reduced by twice-daily disinfection with alcohol, and were unaffected by parental incubation. The rate of microbial penetration into egg contents was low and unaffected by the duration of exposure. Nevertheless, egg viability declined very gradually and significantly with exposure duration, and the rate of decline differed among species. In contrast to studies performed in the tropics, we found little evidence that temperature or microbial mechanisms of egg viability decline were important at our temperate-zone site; neither temperatures above physiological zero nor alcohol disinfection was significantly related to hatching success. Delaying the onset of incubation until the penultimate or last egg of a clutch at our study site may maintain hatching synchrony without a large trade-off in egg viability. These results provide insight into the environmental mechanisms that may be responsible for large-scale latitudinal patterns in avian clutch size and hatching asynchrony.     

Uncertainty and measurement error in welfare models for risk changes

Most welfare models of environmental or mortality risk reductions assume that risks are exogenously determined and known with certainty. However, a growing body of research suggests that uncertainty about risks can affect choices over risky prospects. I present a decision-weighted random-utility model that decomposes welfare losses into those attributable to an increase in the deterministic component of risk and those attributable to uncertainty about risk. I apply the model to an illustrative dataset of subjects' perceived mortality risk and willingness to accept the risk of nuclear-waste transport. I estimate the model using Lewbel's (2000) strictly exogenous regressor approach to account for endogeneity bias and measurement error. Subjects display aversion to both risk and uncertainty about the risk of a transport accident, so that increases in either leads to social-welfare losses. Roughly 12% of the external cost of nuclear-waste transport is attributable to the public's uncertainty about transport risk.