Forest conservation delivers highly variable coral reef conservation outcomes

Coral reefs are threatened by human activities on both the land (e.g., deforestation) and the sea (e.g., overfishing). Most conservation planning for coral reefs focuses on removing threats in the sea, neglecting management actions on the land. A more integrated approach to coral reef conservation, inclusive of land-sea connections, requires an understanding of how and where terrestrial conservation actions influence reefs. We address this by developing a land-sea planning approach to inform fine-scale spatial management decisions and test it in Fiji. Our aim is to determine where the protection of forest can deliver the greatest return on investment for coral reef ecosystems. To assess the benefits of conservation to coral reefs, we estimate their relative condition as influenced by watershed-based pollution and fishing. We calculate the cost-effectiveness of protecting forest and find that investments deliver rapidly diminishing returns for improvements to relative reef condition. For example, protecting 2% of forest in one area is almost 500 times more beneficial than protecting 2% in another area, making prioritization essential. For the scenarios evaluated, relative coral reef condition could be improved by 8-58% if all remnant forest in Fiji were protected rather than deforested. Finally, we determine the priority of each coral reef for implementing a marine protected area when all remnant forest is protected for conservation. The general results will support decisions made by the Fiji Protected Area Committee as they establish a national protected area network that aims to protect 20% of the land and 30% of the inshore waters by 2020. Although challenges remain, we can inform conservation decisions around the globe by tackling the complex issues relevant to integrated land-sea planning.     

Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America

Range expansion by native and exotic species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. Still unanswered, however, is the question of how well this new generation of dynamic models will anticipate range expansion. Here we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in climate and habitat to model range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae). We parameterize this model using multiyear data sets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and apply it to eastern North America over a 57-year period (1951-2008). To evaluate the model, the observed pattern of spread of HWA during this same period was compared to model predictions. Our model predicts considerable heterogeneity in the risk of HWA invasion across space and through time, and it suggests that spatiotemporal variation in winter temperature, rather than hemlock abundance, exerts a primary control on the spread of HWA. Although the simulations generally matched the observed current extent of the invasion of HWA and patterns of anisotropic spread, it did not correctly predict when HWA was observed to arrive in different geographic regions. We attribute differences between the modeled and observed dynamics to an inability to capture the timing and direction of long-distance dispersal events that substantially affected the ensuing pattern of spread.     

Predicting national sustainability: The convergence of energetic,economic and environmental realities

The “constraint space” dictated by energetic, economic and environmental realities on scenarios for future organization of humanity and nature is explored from the perspective of the energy and resources driving economies. Net energy of energy sources is presented as an index (Emergy Yield Ratio; EYR) that must be evaluated for energy sources to better understand their potential contributions to society, but more important, as an indicator of the changes needed in the future if lower net yielding sources are to be relied upon. An aggregate EYR was calculated for the USA economy and shown to have decreased by 38% since 1950, from 11/1 to 6.8/1. Several measures of efficiency at the scale of national economies are explored and the data suggest that the most efficient economies are also the most energetically intense (as measured by empower intensity). An index of environmental loading is suggested as a measure to evaluate environmental efficacy. An obvious outcome is that the smallest most energetically intense countries have the highest environmental loads, and those with large land area and/or continental shelves have the lowest ratios. An Emergy Sustainability Index (EmSI) is defined, computed for countries, and proposed as a multi-dimensional measure of long-term sustainability. The most sustainable economies are those with the highest EYR and lowest environmental loads.     

Growth rate and hatching date in ostrich chicks reflect humoral but not cell-mediated immune function

A tradeoff between immune response and life history traits, in particular growth rate, has been documented in various bird species. Ostriches are fast-growing birds and a typical feature of cohorts is that offspring often differ greatly in size. We investigated the relationship between hatching date and growth rate of chicks and both cell-mediated (measured using a phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) injection) and humoral immune responses in ostrich chicks maintained on a research farm. Chicks with higher growth rates had intermediate responses to both diphtheria and tetanus toxoids. By contrast, no relation between growth rates and responses to PHA injection were found. We conclude that chick growth rate variation may be explained beyond a certain threshold by a tradeoff between the humoral response and growth. Both responses to PHA injection and humoral responses in chicks were found to decrease with chick hatching date. Within the context of ostrich farming, these results could partially explain size variations observed in cohorts of chicks, as well as high mortality rates during their first 3 months of age.     

Phenology and population radiation of the nettle caterpillar, Darna pallivitta (Moore) (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae) in Hawai’i

The nettle caterpillar, Darna pallivitta (Moore) (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae), is an invasive pest with established populations on three Hawai’ian islands. Indigenous to Southeast Asia, D. pallivitta caterpillars cause defoliation of ornamental nursery stock and pose a human health hazard due to their urticating hairs that can cause painful skin reactions. Identification of the pheromone component n-butyl (E)-7,9-decadienoate (E7,9-10:COOnBu) from D. pallivitta has made it possible to investigate the phenology and population dynamics using baited traps. Male captures in Jackson traps baited with E7,9-10:COOnBu showed a vegetation preference for tall-grass fields and forest/grass interfaces over forest areas. Microlocation preferences were also found for trap height, with over 65% of males being caught in traps suspended at 1 m, compared with the traps at 3 and 5 m. Captures of male moths in traps baited with live females, and direct observations of female calling behavior, showed peak activities 6–7 h after the onset of scotophase. This is a much later communication period than for D. bradleyi and D. trima and may provide a mechanism by which D. pallivitta maintains reproductive isolation in areas where all three species are present. Coastal and inland transects established in eastern Hawai’i measured aspects of population fluctuations and radiation into new areas with relation to elevation and microclimate. Population expansion was measured by comparing moth population means and 80% population boundaries over time. Both population measures showed a higher expansion for the coastal transect. Differences in population expansion may be attributed in part to temperature and elevation, while precipitation does not seem to have a strong effect. Both the behavioral and ecological data collected can be used to optimize deployment of detection/control strategies and to predict population expansion/risk assessment for establishing quarantine protocols for the nettle caterpillar.     

Flexible hierarchical mark-recapture modeling for open populations using WinBUGS

Hierarchical mark-recapture models offer three advantages over classical mark-recapture models: (i) they allow expression of complicated models in terms of simple components; (ii) they provide a convenient way of modeling missing data and latent variables in a way that allows expression of relationships involving latent variables in the model; (iii) they provide a convenient way of introducing parsimony into models involving many nuisance parameters. Expressing models using the complete data likelihood we show how many of the standard mark-recapture models for open populations can be readily fitted using the software WinBUGS. We include examples that illustrate fitting the Cormack–Jolly–Seber model, multi-state and multi-event models, models including auxiliary data, and models including density dependence.

The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data

Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems. Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources (e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.

Genotoxic effects of Ag2S and CdS nanoparticles in blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) haemocytes

The use of functionalised metal sulphide nanoparticles (NPs) for nanoremediation and biomedical application is rapidly increasing, which could lead to significant inputs into the marine environment. The potential impact of some NPs on marine organisms is still poorly understood. In the present paper the genotoxic potential of Ag₂S and CdS NPs on Mytilus edulis haemocytes was assessed. MPEG-SH (thiol-terminated methyl polyethylene glycol), was used as capping agent to avoid NPs agglomeration. TEM analysis showed that the Ag₂S NPs size was 13±7 nm, whereas CdS quantum dots had an average diameter of 4±1 nm. DNA integrity was evaluated by Comet assay following exposure to increasing concentration series (0.01–10 mg/L). Both silver and cadmium NPs showed genotoxic effects at the highest dose. MPEG-SH was also found to exert a weak genotoxic activity, suggesting that at least part of the genotoxic potential of functionalised NPs on mussel cells might be attributable to the capping agent. These results confirm the genotoxic potential of Ag₂S NPs for mussel cells and demonstrated, for the first time, that CdS NPs is genotoxic in a marine organism.     

Environmental,social, morphological,and behavioral constraints on opportunistic multiple paternity

Multiple mating and multiple paternity in polytocous species have been mostly studied from an adaptive (i.e., cost–benefit) perspective. Disease, time, energy, and the risk of injuries are well-known costs of multiple mating, yet from both male and female perspectives, a number of genetic and non-genetic benefits have also been identified. The effects of environmental conditions and individual-specific behavior, however, are much less well understood. Using a long-term study on yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventris), we evaluated the impacts of environmental variation, social structure, female body mass, and female docility (a personality trait) on the occurrence of multiple paternity. Multiple paternity was influenced by environmental constraints, social constraints, a female’s personality, and her body mass at emergence from hibernation. Personality and mass effects were detected only when environmental or social conditions were favorable. Our results suggest that multiple paternity is mainly limited by the opportunity to have access to multiple mates and is influenced by costs or mate choice because heavier females were more likely to have litters with multiple sires than smaller ones. Future studies in other species might benefit from considering environmental constraints when studying multiple paternity.     

Hierarchical modeling of abundance in closed population capture–recapture models under heterogeneity

Hierarchical modeling of abundance in space or time using closed-population mark-recapture under heterogeneity (model \(\hbox {M}_{\text {h}}\) ) presents two challenges: (i) finding a flexible likelihood in which abundance appears as an explicit parameter and (ii) fitting the hierarchical model for abundance. The first challenge arises because abundance not only indexes the population size, it also determines the dimension of the capture probabilities in heterogeneity models. A common approach is to use data augmentation to include these capture probabilities directly into the likelihood and fit the model using Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two such examples of this approach are (i) explicit trans-dimensional MCMC, and (ii) superpopulation data augmentation. The superpopulation approach has the advantage of simple specification that is easily implemented in BUGS and related software. However, it reparameterizes the model so that abundance is no longer included, except as a derived quantity. This is a drawback when hierarchical models for abundance, or related parameters, are desired. Here, we analytically compare the two approaches and show that they are more closely related than might appear superficially. We exploit this relationship to specify the model in a way that allows us to include abundance as a parameter and that facilitates hierarchical modeling using readily available software such as BUGS. We use this approach to model trends in grizzly bear abundance in Yellowstone National Park from 1986 to 1998.