Improving credibility and transparency of conservation impact evaluations through the partial identification approach

The fundamental challenge of evaluating the impact of conservation interventions is that researchers must estimate the difference between the outcome after an intervention occurred and what the outcome would have been without it (counterfactual). Because the counterfactual is unobservable, researchers must make an untestable assumption that some units (e.g., organisms or sites) that were not exposed to the intervention can be used as a surrogate for the counterfactual (control). The conventional approach is to make a point estimate (i.e., single number along with a confidence interval) of impact, using, for example, regression. Point estimates provide powerful conclusions, but in nonexperimental contexts they depend on strong assumptions about the counterfactual that often lack transparency and credibility. An alternative approach, called partial identification (PI), is to first estimate what the counterfactual bounds would be if the weakest possible assumptions were made. Then, one narrows the bounds by using stronger but credible assumptions based on an understanding of why units were selected for the intervention and how they might respond to it. We applied this approach and compared it with conventional approaches by estimating the impact of a conservation program that removed invasive trees in part of the Cape Floristic Region. Even when we used our largest PI impact estimate, the program's control costs were 1.4 times higher than previously estimated. PI holds promise for applications in conservation science because it encourages researchers to better understand and account for treatment selection biases; can offer insights into the plausibility of conventional point‐estimate approaches; could reduce the problem of advocacy in science; might be easier for stakeholders to agree on a bounded estimate than a point estimate where impacts are contentious; and requires only basic arithmetic skills.     

Consequential cognition: Exploring how attribution theory sheds new light on the firm‐level consequences of product recalls

It is unclear why some firms suffer greater negative consequences than others following a product recall. To shed light on this question, we extend attribution theory to the firm level to explore how consumers engage in an attributional process following product recalls that shapes their responses to firms. Integrating attribution theory and the demand side theoretical perspective, we assert that consumer judgments of responsibility toward manufacturers are shaped by causal data regarding the locus of causality (i.e., manufacturer or supplier) and controllability (i.e., prior knowledge or awareness) of a recalled product's potential for harm. We then examine the impact of product recall characteristics on judgments of responsibility and firm‐level outcomes using an experimental test involving responses from 320 subjects. Our findings suggest that judgments of responsibility are attributed to the manufacturing firm more when consumers are given causal information indicating that the firm is the source of, or is aware of, a product's defects. The results also indicate that judgments of responsibility can have costly firm‐level consequences in the form of reputational damage, diminished consumer purchase intentions, and increased legal damage recommendations. We discuss theoretical contributions, practical implications, and opportunities for further research.     

Web-building spiders attract prey by storing decaying matter

The orb-weaving spider Nephila edulis incorporates into its web a band of decaying animal and plant matter. While earlier studies demonstrate that larger spiders utilise these debris bands as caches of food, the presence of plant matter suggests additional functions. When organic and plastic items were placed in the webs of N. edulis, some of the former but none of the latter were incorporated into the debris band. Using an Y-maze olfactometer, we show that sheep blowflies Lucilia cuprina are attracted to recently collected debris bands, but that this attraction does not persist over time. These data reveal an entirely novel foraging strategy, in which a sit-and-wait predator attracts insect prey by utilising the odours of decaying organic material. The spiders habit of replenishing the debris band may be necessary to maintain its efficacy for attracting prey.     

An experimental study of male adornment in the scarlet-tufted malachite sunbird: I. The role of pectoral tufts in territorial defence

Summary Scarlet-tufted malachite sunbirds (Nectarinia johnstoni) are endemic to the alpine zones of East African mountains. On Mount Kenya they feed almost exclusively on the nectar of Lobelia telekii flowers. Males are resident on their territories all year and defend L. telekii inflorescences from conspecifics. Males are bright iridescent green, with scarlet pectoral tufts which are displayed prominently during aggressive interactions with other males. We investigated the role of pectoral tufts in territory defence using natural variation and experimental manipulation. Males with naturally large pectoral tufts defended more L. telekii inflorescences than males with smaller tufts, and achieved a higher reproductive success. Males were subjected to one of three experimental treatments - having their pectoral tufts enlarged, reduced or manipulated but kept at the same size. Males with reduced tufts spend more time in aggressive interactions than the control males, the interactions lasted longer and they lost a number of inflorescences to neighbours. Males with enlarged pectoral tufts increased the number of inflorescences defended. These results indicate that the pectoral tufts of male scarlet-tufted malachite sunbirds are used as a means of male-male assessment during aggressive interactions. Offprint requests to: M.R. Evans     

Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis.

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by approximately 1-4 degrees C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3 degrees C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3 degrees C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.     

Patterns of microzooplankton growth in dilution experiments across a trophic gradient: Implications for herbivory studies

To investigate the growth and grazing patterns of microzooplankton (MZP) in environments of differing productivity, dilution experiments measuring phytoplankton growth (μ) and grazing mortality (m) rates were performed using samples from contrasting locations along the Texas coast. Samples were collected from estuaries, coastal lagoons and offshore Gulf of Mexico locations in the spring and summer of 2001. MZP growth rates were determined in each dilution treatment. Although MZP biomass changed over time in most dilution treatments, adjusting μ and m for the actual grazer gradient (represented by geometric mean MZP biomass) did not cause a significant deviation from the nominal dilution gradient. Likewise, these adjustments did not yield significant regressions where none existed before adjustment. The dynamics of MZP taxonomic groups (ciliates, dinoflagellates) and size categories differed suggesting that in some cases internal predation may lead to trophic cascades. MZP biomass was higher in productive coastal waters and included a larger proportion of dinoflagellates than in the oligotrophic, ciliate-dominated waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The MZP biomass-to-chlorophyll a ratio was lowest in the hypereutrophic Nueces River, where MZP biomass significantly increased in all dilution treatments (net growth rates up to 2 day⁻¹) suggesting a strong top–down control. In the brown-tide dominated Upper Laguna Madre and the oligotrophic seagrass-dominated Lower Laguna Madre MZP growth was decoupled from that of phytoplankton. At these sites, MZP were likely fueled by bacterial carbon and mixotrophy, respectively. Observing the growth response of MZP in dilution experiments can provide insight into trophic structure and efficiency of the microbial food web.     

An assessment of lead absorption from soil affected by smelter emissions

The purpose of this study was to assess the oral bioavailability of lead in soil collected from a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah, USA. Sprague-Dawley rats (approximately 4 weeks of age, 5 of each sex in group) were given either soil lead or lead acetate mixed in a purified diet (AIN-93G ) at four different concentrations for 31 consecutive days. Food consumption measurements were used to compute mean daily lead exposures for the soil lead and lead acetate groups. The lead acetate treatment yielded higher concentrations of lead in the blood and bone than the soil lead treatment. Mean blood lead values ranged from below the detection limit (3 g dL^–1) to 27.25 g lead dL^–1 for the lead acetate groups at dose levels of 0.10–2.91 mg lead kg body weight^–1 and from below the detection limit to 8.8 g lead dL^–1 for the soil lead groups at doses of 0.11–3.43 mg lead kg body weight^–1. At these same doses, mean bone values ranged from 0.52 to 26.92 g lead g^–1 for the lead acetate groups and from 0.64 to 13.1 g lead g^–1 for the soil lead groups. Relative per cent bioavailability was estimated by modelling the dose-blood concentration curves for the lead acetate treatment and the dosed soil lead treatment, and then comparing doses that produce an equivalent blood lead concentration. The ratio of the doses of lead acetate and soil lead that produced the same tissue response (i.e., concentration) provided an index of relative bioavailability. For lead, the bioavailability of soil lead relative to lead acetate was 41% at a blood concentration of 6 g lead dL^–1.     

Quantifying ultraviolet radiation mortality risk in bluegill larvae: effects of nest location.

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation (280-400 nm) is an increasing threat to aquatic organisms due to stratospheric ozone depletion and reductions in concentrations of dissolved organic carbon. Because fish are most vulnerable to UV during the egg and larval stages, parental spawning site selection can strongly influence mortality risk. We examined the role of nest location in determining UV-induced mortality risk for bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) in Lake Giles, Pennsylvania, USA. In a series of five short-term incubation experiments, we found that survival of yolk sac larvae across the range of depths at which bluegill spawn was significantly lower in the presence of ambient-UV levels relative to larvae that were shielded from UV radiation. In addition, survival decreased as a function of cumulative UV exposure, as measured by the number of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers per megabase DNA in DNA dosimeters. Although UV had the potential to significantly reduce larval survival, DNA dosimeters placed in bluegill nests concurrently with incubation experiments indicated that most nests were exposed to relatively low levels of UV. Only 19% of nests had predicted UV-induced mortality greater than 25%. Consequently, current levels of UV may be an important mortality source at the level of individual nests, but not at the population level. One reason for the weak predicted effect of UV on bluegill survival is that many nests were located at depths by which much of the incident UV had been attenuated. In addition, many of the shallower nests were protected by overhanging trees or other submerged structures. It is important to note that Lake Giles is highly transparent and therefore not representative of all lakes in which bluegill are found. Nevertheless, Lake Giles is a natural system and may be representative of north temperate lakes in the future.