A comparison of predicted and measured levels of runoff-related pesticide concentrations in small lowland streams on a landscape level

Short-term pollution events via runoff are typical of streams in agricultural areas. Existing runoff models that simulate pesticide loss from agricultural fields require extensive input of information. There is thus a need for a simple model that can predict runoff-related pesticide concentrations in many streams on a landscape level when only limited data are available. To validate such a model, the runoff-related pesticide load of 18 small lowland streams was predicted with an extended version of the model "simplified formula for indirect loadings caused by runoff" (available from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD). The authors suggest that the model presented here is suitable for use in routine exposure assessment of pesticides on a landscape level, as all input data (soil, slope, precipitation, pesticide application) are readily available from public authorities or could be generated by simple regional flood hydrograph curves. The predicted concentrations were compared with measured concentrations obtained by runoff-triggered sampling. Fungicides, insecticides and herbicides were detected in 17 streams, with max. concentrations measuring up to 29.7 microg/l for the fungicide azoxystrobin and 0.3 microg/l for the insecticide parathion-ethyl. Herbicides were detected in 16 streams, with max. concentrations between 13.7 and 1.2 microg/l. The linear regression between the predicted and measured concentrations (log-values) shows significant correlations for the following pesticides: azoxystrobin: r2=0.43; p=0.03; epoxiconazole: r2=0.71; por=0.5 microg/l).     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: The Functional Unit in the Life Cycle Inventory Analysis of Degreasing Processes in the Metal-Processing Industry

1 and C₂ hydrocarbons (trichloroethane, trichloroethene, tetrachloroethene, dichloromethane). Measures aiming at the reduction of toxic emissions and ozone depletion potential (ODP) may possibly lead to a shift of environmental impacts towards higher energy consumption, emission of waste water, and volatile organic compounds (VOC) with photochemical oxidant creation potential (POCP). The present article concerns itself with a life cycle assessment of the three main degreasing processes in order to compare their integral environmental impacts with one another. This is supplemented by presenting the methodology of the life cycle inventory life cycle inventory analysis (LCI). Generally, the applicability of the established LCI method can be shown quite clearly. However, some difficulties arise, especially at the stage of the goal definition, as the use of the process and the functional unit cannot be pinned down as easily and neatly as for most other products. The definition of the use of the process and the functional unit is not as straightforward as for most products. Among the potential functional units identified are the mass of removed impurities, cleaning time, cleaning work, percentage of purity, throughput of parts, loads, mass or surface and virtual coefficients. The mass of removed impurities turned out to be the most suitable parameter for measuring the technical performance of degreasing processes. The article discusses background, purpose, scope, system boundaries, target group, process tree and representativeness of the present study.     

Developing the Ethical Delphi

A number of EU institutions and government committees across Europe have expressed interest in developing methods and decision-support tools to facilitate consideration of the ethical dimensions of biotechnology assessment. As part of the work conducted in the EC supported project on ethical tools (Ethical Bio-TA Tools), a number of ethical frameworks with the potential to support the work of public policy decision-makers has been characterized and evaluated. One of these potential tools is the Delphi method. The Delphi method was originally developed to assess variables that are intangible and/or shrouded in uncertainty by drawing on the knowledge and abilities of a diverse group of experts through a form of anonymous and iterative consultation. The method has hitherto been used by a diversity of practitioners to explore issues such as technology assessment, environmental planning, and public health measures. From the original (classical) Delphi, a family of Delphi-related processes has emerged. As a result of the evaluation of the various Delphi processes, it is proposed that the classical method can be further developed and applied as a form of ethical framework to assist policy-makers. Through a series of exercises and trials, an Ethical Delphi has been developed as a potential approach for characterizing ethical issues raised by the use of novel biotechnologies. Advantages and disadvantages of the method are discussed. Further work is needed to develop the procedural aspects of the Ethical Delphi method and to test its use in different cultural contexts. However, utilizing an ethical framework of this type combines the advantages of a methodical approach to capture ethical aspects with the democratic virtues of transparency and openness to criticism. Ethical frameworks such as the Ethical Delphi should contribute to better understanding of and decision-making on issues that involve decisive ethical dimensions.     

Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change.     

The greenhouse gas intensity of the tourism sector: The case of Switzerland

Greenhouse gas intensity is a ratio comparing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of an activity or economic sector to the economic value it generates. In recent years, many countries have calculated the GHG intensity of their economic sectors as a basis for policy making. The GHG intensity of tourism, however, has not been determined since tourism is not measured as an economic sector in the national accounts. While for tourism-reliant countries it would be useful to know this quantity, a number of difficulties exist in its determination. In this study, we determine the GHG intensity of tourism's value added in Switzerland by means of a detailed bottom-up approach with the main methodological focus on how to achieve consistent system boundaries. For comparison, we calculate the tourism sector's GHG intensity for selected European countries using a simpler top-down approach. Our results show that the Swiss tourism sector is more than four times more GHG intensive than the Swiss economy on average. Of all tourism's sub-sectors, air transport stands out as the sector with by far largest emissions (80%) and highest GHG intensity. The results for other countries make similar, if not as pronounced, patterns apparent. We discuss the results and possible mitigation options against the background of the goal to prevent dangerous climate change.     

Perspectives on social capacity building for natural hazards: outlining an emerging field of research and practice in Europe

Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. By way of conclusion, we encourage more research on social capacity building for natural hazards in the European context which at present is highly diverse and, at least in parts, only poorly investigated.     

Multicenter clinical experience with non-invasive cell-free DNA screening for monosomy X and related X-chromosome variants

Objective

We aimed to investigate how the presence of fetal anomalies and different X chromosome variants influences Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) screening results for monosomy X.

Methods

From a multicenter retrospective survey on 673 pregnancies with prenatally suspected or confirmed Turner syndrome, we analyzed the subgroup for which prenatal cfDNA screening and karyotype results were available. A cfDNA screening result was defined as true positive (TP) when confirmatory testing showed 45,X or an X-chromosome variant.

Results

We had cfDNA results, karyotype, and phenotype data for 55 pregnancies. cfDNA results were high risk for monosomy X in 48/55, of which 23 were TP and 25 were false positive (FP). 32/48 high-risk cfDNA cases did not show fetal anomalies. Of these, 7 were TP. All were X-chromosome variants. All 16 fetuses with high-risk cfDNA result and ultrasound anomalies were TP. Of fetuses with abnormalities, those with 45,X more often had fetal hydrops/cystic hygroma, whereas those with “variant” karyotypes had different anomalies.

Conclusion

Both, 45,X or X-chromosome variants can be detected after a high-risk cfDNA result for monosomy X. When there are fetal anomalies, the result is more likely a TP. In the absence of fetal anomalies, it is most often an FP or X-chromosome variant.     

Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?

A strong increase in the demand for some commodities over the last decade will have a major impact on their future supply situation. Of increasing importance, therefore, is an assessment of a commodity's criticality, and especially its supply risk, by appropriate indicators. The literature has proposed numerous indicators of the supply risk. Here, we use the convenience yield of commodity futures as a supply risk indicator to address some of the major shortcomings of existing indicators, especially regarding their predictive power. This paper aims to test the applicability of the convenience yield as an indicator of a commodity's future supply risk. Therefore, we calculate historical convenience yields for 3-, 15-, and 27-month futures contracts for five major industrial metals (aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc) during the period 1999 to 2011. We compare the convenience yields at the beginning of the contract period to known indicators at maturity to find that the convenience yield has generally predictive power for the static stock lifetime (i.e., inventory volume/turnover) and future spot prices. Furthermore, we find that, with some restrictions, the convenience yield is an applicable indicator of a commodity's supply risk.