New insights into the benefits of flood warnings: Results from a household survey in England and Wales

The flood defence agency in England and Wales has been pursuing a programme of flood warning system enhancement, engaging householders at risk in improving their warning responses. The immediate aim of this paper is to test and revise a model of economic benefits of warnings, but the survey data also generate insights into the constraints acting upon flood warning responses. Damage saving is less than previously anticipated: warning reliability and householder availability problems limit savings. Warnings are less likely to be received by those in lower social grades, and flood warning lead time is a factor in avoiding damage. The survey data indicate the complexities involved in improving flood warning response, and provide policy pointers.     

Cellulose acetate biodegradability upon exposure to simulated aerobic composting and anaerobic bioreactor environments

Cellulose acetate (CA) films with degree of substitution (d.s.) values of 1.7 and 2.5 were exposed to biologically active in-laboratory composting test vessels maintained at approximately 53 °C. The CA 1.7- and 2.5-d.s. films (thickness values of 0.5–1.0 and 2.0 mil, respectively) had completely disappeared by the end of 7- and 18-day exposure time periods in the biologically active bioreactors, respectively. The relatively small CA film weight loss observed in the poisoned control test vessels allows the conclusion that CA film erosion during the composting exposures resulted, at least in part, from biologically mediated processes. Under strictly anaerobic conditions, an active methanogenic inoculum was developed by acclimation of a sewage sludge to a synthetic municipal solid waste (SMSW) mixture at 42°C. The CA 1.7-d.s. film samples (0.5- to 1.0-mil thickness) were exposed in anaerobic serum bottles containing a 25% solids loading of SMSW in which methanogenic activity was rapidly established after introducing of the developed inoculum. For exposures of 30 days only small visually distinguishable fragments of the CA 1.7-d.s. films were recovered. In contrast, exposure of the CA 1.7-d.s. film to a poisoned control test vessel resulted in negligible weight loss. Therefore, degradation of the CA 1.7-d.s. films upon exposure to the anaerobic bioreactors was due, at least in part, to biologically mediated processes.Guest Editor: Dr. Graham Swift, Rohm & Haas.     

A Strategy and Methodology for Defensibly Correlating Spilled Oil to Source Candidates

The source of crude oils and petroleum products released into navigable waterways and shipping lanes is not always known. Thus, the defensible identification of spilled crude oils and petroleum products and their correlation to suspected sources is a critical part of many oil spill assessments. Quantitative "fingerprinting" analysis, when evaluated using straightforward statistical and numerical analyses, provides a defensible means to differentiate among qualitatively similar oils and provides the best assessment of the source(s) for spilled oils. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and petroleum biomarker concentration data are a particularly useful quantitative measure that can benefit most oil spill investigations. In this paper the strategy and methodology for correlation analysis that relies upon quantitative gas chromatography/mass spectrometry operated in the selected ion monitoring mode (GC/MS-SIM) is demonstrated in a case study involving 66 candidate sources for a heavy fuel oil spill of unknown origin. The strategy includes identification of 19 chemical indices (out of 45 evaluated) based upon PAH's and biomarkers that were (1) independent of weathering; and (2) precisely measured, both of which are determined by statistical analysis of the data. The 19 chemical indices meeting these criteria are subsequently analysed using principal component analysis (PCA), which helps to determine defensibly the "prime suspects" for the oil spill under investigation. The strategy and methodology described, which combines statistical and numerical analysis of quantitative chemical data, can be adapted and applied to other environmental forensic investigations with the objective of correlating any form of contamination to its suspected sources.     

Contextual influences on national level flood risk communication

With high profile flooding events and increasing risk and probable damages of flooding in the future flood risk management (FRM) in England and Wales has undergone substantial changes over the last decade. The contextual influences on flood risk communication in the areas of flood forecasting, warning and response, spatial planning and development control and flood insurance at a national level are investigated in this paper. Research is based on qualitative interviews with 21 representatives of key organisations and activities at a national level of FRM. Drawing on communication theory the research highlights the key contextual features at play: the characteristics of communication flow through organisations, the importance of policy as a communication tool informed and constrained by flood events, organisational agendas, communication approaches and the development of knowledge and technology. The paper describes the influence of clear policy guidance on activities in certain government FRM communication initiatives and the commercial imperative driving the insurance industry activities.     

Risk communication in emergency response to a simulated extreme flood

Risk communication in flood incident management can be improved through developing hydrometeorological and engineering models used as tools for communicating risk between scientists and emergency management professionals. A range of such models and tools was evaluated by participating flood emergency managers during a 4-day, real-time simulation of an extreme event in the Thamesmead area in the Thames estuary close to London, England. Emergency managers have different communication needs and value new tools differently, but the indications are that a range of new tools could be beneficial in flood incident management. Provided they are communicated large model uncertainties are not necessarily unwelcome among flood emergency managers. Even so they are cautious about sharing the ownership of weather and flood modelling uncertainties.     

A comparative study of heavy metal concentration and distribution in deposited street dusts in a large and a small urban area: Birmingham and Coventry,West Midlands,UK

Results are presented from a study of the distribution of heavy metals in street dusts of two cities in Midland England. The first (Birmingham) is a large urban area (population of 2.3 million), the second, Coventry, a small one (population of 0.3 million). Several trends were identified from Birmingham: higher concentrations were located near industrial areas in the northwest of the city and within the ring road. However, lower concentrations were found to the southwest in areas of mainly residential properties and parks. High values were also identified in association with junctions controlled by traffic lights where vehicles were likely to stop regularly. This last trend was further investigated in Coventry, where it was found that concentrations of heavy metals at junctions controlled by traffic signals and by pedestrian-controlled pelican lights (Mounted Pelican Controller, MPCs) were lower than those found in Birmingham, apart from Ni.     

Comparative study of transport processes of nitrogen, phosphorus, and herbicides to streams in five agricultural basins, USA

Agricultural chemical transport to surface water and the linkage to other hydrological compartments, principally ground water, was investigated at five watersheds in semiarid to humid climatic settings. Chemical transport was affected by storm water runoff, soil drainage, irrigation, and how streams were linked to shallow ground water systems. Irrigation practices and timing of chemical use greatly affected nutrient and pesticide transport in the semiarid basins. Irrigation with imported water tended to increase ground water and chemical transport, whereas the use of locally pumped irrigation water may eliminate connections between streams and ground water, resulting in lower annual loads. Drainage pathways in humid environments are important because the loads may be transported in tile drains, or through varying combinations of ground water discharge, and overland flow. In most cases, overland flow contributed the greatest loads, but a significant portion of the annual load of nitrate and some pesticide degradates can be transported under base-flow conditions. The highest basin yields for nitrate were measured in a semiarid irrigated system that used imported water and in a stream dominated by tile drainage in a humid environment. Pesticide loads, as a percent of actual use (LAPU), showed the effects of climate and geohydrologic conditions. The LAPU values in the semiarid study basin in Washington were generally low because most of the load was transported in ground water discharge to the stream. When herbicides are applied during the rainy season in a semiarid setting, such as simazine in the California basin, LAPU values are similar to those in the Midwest basins.     

Progressive nitrogen limitation of ecosystem processes under elevated CO2 in a warm-temperate forest

A hypothesis for progressive nitrogen limitation (PNL) proposes that net primary production (NPP) will decline through time in ecosystems subjected to a step-function increase in atmospheric CO2. The primary mechanism driving this response is a rapid rate of N immobilization by plants and microbes under elevated CO2 that depletes soils of N, causing slower rates of N mineralization. Under this hypothesis, there is little long-term stimulation of NPP by elevated CO2 in the absence of exogenous inputs of N. We tested this hypothesis using data on the pools and fluxes of C and N in tree biomass, microbes, and soils from 1997 through 2002 collected at the Duke Forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment. Elevated CO2 stimulated NPP by 18-24% during the first six years of this experiment. Consistent with the hypothesis for PNL, significantly more N was immobilized in tree biomass and in the O horizon under elevated CO2. In contrast to the PNL hypothesis, microbial-N immobilization did not increase under elevated CO2, and although the rate of net N mineralization declined through time, the decline was not significantly more rapid under elevated CO2. Ecosystem C-to-N ratios widened more rapidly under elevated CO2 than ambient CO2 indicating a more rapid rate of C fixation per unit of N, a processes that could delay PNL in this ecosystem. Mass balance calculations demonstrated a large accrual of ecosystem N capital. Is PNL occurring in this ecosystem and will NPP decline to levels under ambient CO2? The answer depends on the relative strength of tree biomass and O-horizon N immobilization vs. widening C-to-N ratios and ecosystem-N accrual as processes that drive and delay PNL, respectively. Only direct observations through time will definitively answer this question.     

Biodegradable Poly(lactic acid) Blends with Chemically Modified Polyhydroxyoctanoate Through Chain Extension

Poly(lactic acid) (PLA) was blended with chemically modified Polyhydroxyoctanoate (mPHO) using a Haake twin-screw mixer. Due to the melt viscosity disparity between the two components, PHO was reacted with Hexamethylene diisocyanate (HDI) used as a chain extender to produce high molecular weight for improving compatibility and processability with PLA. The number average and weight average molecular weight of the PHO, reacted with 0.55 wt% HDI, were increased 314 and 275%, respectively, compared with those of the unmodified PHO. The blends were characterized for rheological, thermal, and mechanical properties. Infrared spectra confirmed the formation of the urethane linkages in mPHO. The shear viscosity, as a function of shear rate or shear stress, decreased with an increase in mPHO content, indicating that the PLA/mPHO blends show shear-thinning behavior along with the power-law model. DSC thermograms showed that the two components in the blends were found with two crystalline phases and two amorphous phases confirming the coexistence of two immiscible components. Tensile results indicated that tensile strength for blends decreased with increasing mPHO content up to 80%. A decrease in elastic modulus, as well as an increase in elongation at break, was seen as a function of mPHO content. Results of aging tests showed that the mechanical properties of the blends also dropped more at a higher PLA level when compared with those of the unaged samples.