Estimating Full IM240 Emissions from Partial Test Results: Evidence from Arizona

ABSTRACT

The expense and inconvenience of enhanced-vehicle-emissions testing using the full 240-second dynamometer test has led states to search for ways to shorten the test process. In fact, all states that currently use the IM240 allow some type of fast-pass, usually as early in the test as second 31, and Arizona has allowed vehicles to fast-fail after second 93. While these shorter tests save states millions of dollars in inspection lanes and driver costs, there is a loss of information since test results are no longer comparable across vehicles. This paper presents a methodology for estimating full 240-second results from partial-test results for three pollutants: HC, CO, and NO_x. If states can convert all tests to consistent IM240 readings, they will be able to better characterize fleet emissions and to evaluate the impact of inspection and maintenance and other programs on emissions over time. Using a random sample of vehicles in Arizona which received full 240-second tests, we use regression analysis to estimate the relationship between emissions at second 240 and emissions at earlier seconds in the test. We examine the influence of other variables such as age, model-year group, and the pollution level itself on this relationship. We also use the estimated coefficients in several applications. First, we try to shed light on the frequent assertion that the results of the dynamometer test provide guidance for vehicle repair of failing vehicles. Using a probit analysis, we find that the probability that a failing vehicle will pass the test on the first retest is greater the longer the test has progressed. Second, we test the accuracy of our estimates for forecasting fleet emissions from partial-test emissions results in Arizona. We find forecasted fleet average emissions to be very close to the actual fleet averages for light-duty vehicles, but not quite as good for trucks, particularly when NO_x emissions are forecast.     

Assessment of emissions data for the Toronto region using aircraft-based measurements and an air quality model

An aircraft-based measurement campaign was conducted during the summer of 1996 in the vicinity of Toronto, Canada. The objective of the campaign was to assess the errors in a particular emission inventory used by three-dimensional air quality models. Measurements of NO₂ and hydrocarbons were made both upwind and downwind of Toronto, on days with strong synoptic-scale flow from a west to northerly direction. The chemical composition of the background airmass on these days was typical of unpolluted continental air. Measurements have been compared with the output from an on-line air quality model (MC2-AQ) run at 5 km resolution and suggest that emissions of NO_x from Toronto are well described in the emission database, though evidence that NO_x emissions are underestimated for suburban regions surrounding Toronto was found. In general, no significant underestimation of hydrocarbon emissions was found, though emissions of the model propane species, which includes acetylene and benzene, was underestimated by at least a factor of two.     

Valuing congested recreation sites

This note discusses the issue of measuring consumers' surplus at crowded facilities. It is argued that surplus should be measured with congestion held constant. The area under an aggregate demand curve which has congestion varying has no normative significance. Whether travel cost demand curves estimated for congested facilities properly measured consumers' surplus depends on the sampling procedure and the specification of the demand curves.     

Evaluating a Canadian regional air quality model using ground-based observations in north-eastern Canada and United States

The simulated concentrations from a numerical 3-dimensional regional air quality model (MC2AQ) are compared to those of ground-based observations in north-eastern Canada and the United States. The model has oxidant chemistry for both inorganic and organic species and deposition routines driven online by a mesoscale compressible community meteorological model (MC2). A standard emission inventory of anthropogenic, natural and biogenic sources for the year 1990 for 21 atmospheric trace species was used in the simulation. The model was run for July 1999, because of the occurrence of a high ozone episode and the availability of the monitoring data for surface O3, SO2, NO, NO2 and NOx. The comparisons during the episode show that the model performs quite well for predicting concentrations and diurnal variations of the surface ozone. The predictions for other gaseous species show some discrepancies with observations, but they are consistent with the results from other models evaluated in the literature. The uncertainties in the emission inventory for these species might be the main causes of the discrepancies. Further studies are needed to improve the predictability of SO and NOx, especially as the model is developed to include particulate matter formation as a result of these gaseous precursors.     

Bioeconomic models of marine recreational fishing

The theory of recreational fishing is developed and conditions are derived for optimal management policy, with special attention given to functional relationships that must be empirically verified. Determinants of the optimal allocation between commercial and recreational fishing effort are derived. The theory is extended to include selected peculiar features of recreational fishing: Some anglers sell their catch; a small proportion of the fishing population accounts for a large proportion of the catch; and anglers throw back a fraction of what they catch. Optimal policies are derived under these more realistic conditions.     

Using markets for land preservation: Results of a TDR program

This paper reviews different approaches to using transferable development rights (TDRs) as a way to preserve rural lands in the face of development pressure. One TDR program is examined in detail, that of Calvert County, Maryland, which has had an active TDR market since the mid-1980s. This program uses TDRs as a key policy tool for achieving a total amount of preserved acreage in the county, and for providing incentives for preservation in some areas and development in others. The paper examines both the early difficulties in developing participation in the program, and the events that lead eventually to an active TDR market. It assesses the workings of the market including factors that influence the demand and supply of TDRs, the movement of prices over time, and the location of preserved areas and of additional developed areas. The study found that the program is achieving many of the county's land preservation goals because of the high level of activity in the TDR market. However, most of the additional density is being channeled into rural areas with underlying low-density zoning.     

Managing agricultural emissions to the atmosphere: state of the science, fate and mitigation, and identifying research gaps

The impact of agriculture on regional air quality creates significant challenges to sustainability of food supplies and to the quality of national resources. Agricultural emissions to the atmosphere can lead to many nuisances, such as smog, haze, or offensive odors. They can also create more serious effects on human or environmental health, such as those posed by pesticides and other toxic industrial pollutants. It is recognized that deterioration of the atmosphere is undesirable, but the short- and long-term impacts of specific agricultural activities on air quality are not well known or understood. These concerns led to the organization of the 2009 American Chemical Society Symposium titled . An outcome of this symposium is this special collection of 14 research papers focusing on various issues associated with production agriculture and its effect on air quality. Topics included emissions from animal feeding operations, odors, volatile organic compounds, pesticides, mitigation, modeling, and risk assessment. These papers provide new research insights, identify gaps in current knowledge, and recommend important future research directions. As the scientific community gains a better understanding of the relationships between anthropogenic activities and their effects on environmental systems, technological advances should enable a reduction in adverse consequences on the environment.