Combining theory and wisdom in pragmatic,scenario-based decision support for sustainable development

Researchers have increasingly acknowledged the relative strength of ‘hybrid’ approaches to scenario analysis for exploring the futures of coupled human-nature systems. In this paper, we explain, demonstrate, and provisionally evaluate the usefulness of a simple analytical framework, based on five categories of capital assets, as part of a protocol for overcoming the conversion problem in hybrid scenario analysis. Based on a preliminary application of the framework to a case study in South Africa, we suggest that the five capitals framework has the potential to improve expedience and counter the bias against ‘soft’ drivers in hybrid approaches to scenario analysis. However, in light of the methodological trade-off between rigour and expedience, we suggest that future research needs to compare the available protocols for hybrid scenario analysis by weighing up the relative gain in scenario quality versus the relative cost of scenario construction.     

INTEGRATING LANDSCAPE ASSESSMENT AND HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR LAND COVER CHANGE ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Significant land cover changes have occurred in the watersheds that contribute runoff to the upper San Pedro River in Sonora, Mexico, and southeast Arizona. These changes, observed using a series of remotely sensed images taken in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, have been implicated in the alteration of the basin hydrologic response. The Cannonsville subwatershed, located in the Catskill/Delaware watershed complex that delivers water to New York City, provides a contrast in land cover change. In this region, the Cannonsville watershed condition has improved over a comparable time period. A landscape assessment tool using a geographic information system (GIS) has been developed that automates the parameterization of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion (KINEROS) hydrologic models. The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool was used to prepare parameter input files for the Upper San Pedro Basin, a subwatershed within the San Pedro undergoing significant changes, and the Cannonsville watershed using historical land cover data. Runoff and sediment yield were simulated using these models. In the Cannonsville watershed, land cover change had a beneficial impact on modeled watershed response due to the transition from agriculture to forest land cover. Simulation results for the San Pedro indicate that increasing urban and agricultural areas and the simultaneous invasion of woody plants and decline of grasslands resulted in increased annual and event runoff volumes, flashier flood response, and decreased water quality due to sediment loading. These results demonstrate the usefulness of integrating remote sensing and distributed hydrologic models through the use of GIS for assessing watershed condition and the relative impacts of land cover transitions on hydrologic response.     

Advanced driver assistance systems for teen drivers: A national survey of teen and parent perceptions

Abstract

Objective: Recently developed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) have the potential to compensate for teen driving errors and reduce overall crash risk. To date, very limited research has been conducted on the suitability of ADAS for teen drivers—the population most likely to benefit from such systems. The opportunity for ADAS to reduce the frequency and severity of crashes involving teen drivers is hindered when there is a lack of trust, acceptance, and use of those technologies. Therefore, there is a need to study teen and parent perceptions of ADAS to help identify and overcome any potential barriers to ADAS use.

Methods: A U.S. national survey was developed based on themes from previously conducted teen and parent ADAS focus groups. Survey topics included trust in ADAS, effect of ADAS on teen driver safety and driving behavior, effect of ADAS on skill development, data privacy, and cybersecurity. Responses included 5-point Likert scales and open-ended questions. The survey was managed through an online respondent panel by ResearchNow. Eligibility criteria included licensed teens (16–19 years) and parents of licensed teens. Teen and parent responses were compared using chi-square statistics in SAS 9.4.

Results: Two thousand and three (teens?=?1,000; parents?=?1,003) respondents qualified for and completed the survey between September 1 and September 20, 2017. Overall, teens (72%) and parents (61%) felt that ADAS would have a positive impact on transportation. However, teens were more likely to exhibit a positive outlook on ADAS, whereas parents were more likely to have a negative outlook (P?<?.01). Teens felt that ADAS would be useful during bad weather or drowsy driving but were less concerned than parents about ADAS intervention during their own risky driving (P?<?.01). The majority of teens (65%) and parents (71%) agreed that teens should learn to drive on vehicles without ADAS, with parents being more likely to agree than teens (P?<?.01). Parents (55%) were more likely than teens (47%) to be concerned about insurance companies keeping track of teen driving data (P?<?.01). Most respondents exhibited some concern of ADAS being susceptible to hacking (57%).

Conclusions: This study represents the first effort to quantify ADAS perceptions among teen drivers and their parents at the U.S. national level. These data highlight potential barriers to ADAS use among teen drivers, including a relative disinterest among teens for ADAS intervention during risky driving as well as concerns among both teens and parents that ADAS will inhibit skill development. These survey findings will help inform educational programs to accelerate fleet turnover and provide the foundation for ADAS optimization and evaluation studies among sociodemographic groups.     

The Park Made of Oil: Towards a Historical Political Ecology of the Kenneth Hahn State Recreation Area

Within the park-deprived inner-city landscapes of Los Angeles, an unprecedented change is underway. Long considered to be the epitome of anti-nature, Los Angeles is witnessing a boom in park development and ecological restoration. Derelict, blighted and contaminated inner-city brownfield sites are being converted to greenspaces, nature parks and wildlife refuges. Indeed, Los Angeles has been the recent recipient of hitherto unimaginable political and fiscal support to ameliorate the dearth of parks in its neglected urban core. This paper situates the current round of park development within its historical context, by focusing on a very particular local site—the Kenneth Hahn State Recreation Area. Applying the theoretical lens of political ecology, the authors trace some of the political, economic, ecological and institutional factors from the late 1920s onwards, which engendered the creation of a park atop an oilfield. In so doing, the authors deepen the understanding of how local greenspace allocation, poverty, race and political power are oftentimes complexly entangled. Precursor to a much larger project currently in the planning and development stages, the creation of the Kenneth Hahn State Recreation Area reveals some of the ways that the Southern California oil industry has shaped nature spaces in Los Angeles.     

A comparison of temperate reef fish assemblages recorded by three underwater stereo-video techniques

Three underwater stereo-video techniques were used to sample the relative densities and species richness of temperate reef fish assemblages at three reef locations and two habitats (high- and low-relief reef) within Hamelin Bay, south-western Australia. The three techniques compared were diver-operated stereo-video strip transects, baited remote stereo-video and unbaited remote stereo-video. While unbaited remote stereo-video and diver-operated stereo-video transects recorded greater species richness at high compared to low-relief reefs, baited remote stereo-video recorded similar species richness at the two habitat types. The diver-operated stereo-video system was manoeuvred through caves and under overhangs recording small, cryptic, cave-dwelling species that were not recorded by either remote video techniques (Trachinops noarlungae, Trachinops brauni, Chromis klunzingeri, Trachichthys australis). Both remote video techniques recorded greater species richness and relative density of the most common species of Labridae, Ophthalmolepsis lineolatus. Baited remote video recorded the rarer, large predatory fish species (e.g. Seriola hippos, Glaucosoma hebraicum, Heterodontus portusjacksoni). None of the techniques sampled small cryptic fish families such as Gobiidae or Blenniidae. A combination of survey techniques is recommended for comprehensive fishery-independent studies that aim to sample broad components of fish assemblages.An erratum to this article can be found at     

Regulation of intertidal food webs by avian predators on New England rocky shores

Although there is a large body of research on food webs in rocky intertidal communities, most of the emphasis has been on the marine benthic components. Effects of avian predation on highly mobile predators such as crabs, remains practically unstudied in rocky shore ecosystems. The crab, Cancer borealis, is an important component of the diet of gulls (Larus marinus, L. argentatus) at the Isles of Shoals, Maine, USA. C. borealis prey include the predatory gastropod Nucella lapillus L., the herbivore Littorina littorea, and mussels Mytilus edulis L. We hypothesized that gulls reduce abundance of C. borealis in the low intertidal and shallow subtidal, thereby allowing C. borealis prey to persist in high numbers. A study of crab tidal migration showed that C. borealis density nearly doubled at high tide compared to low tide; thus, crabs from a large subtidal source population migrate into the intertidal zone during high tides and either emigrate or are removed by gulls during low tides. Results from a small-scale (1 m2) predator caging experiment in the low intertidal zone indicated that enclosed crabs significantly reduced L. littorea abundance when protected from gull predation. In a much larger-scale gull exclusion experiment, densities of C. borealis increased significantly during low and high tides in exclosures relative to the controls. C. borealis density was inversely correlated with changes in the abundance of two mesopredators Carcinus maenas and Nucella lapillus, and with the space-occupier M. edulis. There was a similar negative correlation between abundance of C. borealis and the change in abundance of the herbivore L. littorea, but the trend was not significant. Mortality of tethered L. littorea was associated with C. borealis density across sites. However, preferred algae did not change in response to L. littorea density during the experiment. Thus, we found suggestive, but not conclusive, evidence for a three-level cascade involving gulls, crabs, and L. littorea. Our studies strongly suggest that gulls, as apex predators, generate three-level trophic cascades in rocky intertidal food webs by preventing the highly mobile subtidal predator, C. borealis, from establishing substantial populations in the low-mid intertidal zone thereby indirectly enhancing densities of two key mesopredators (N. lapillus, Carcinus) and blue mussels (M. edulis).     

Rebuilding and strengthening health systems and providing basic health services in fragile states

The international community has compelling humanitarian, political, security and economic reasons to engage in rebuilding and strengthening health systems in fragile states. Improvements in health services and systems help to strengthen civil society and to restore legitimacy to governments. Effective engagement with fragile states to inform the design of health programmes and selection of interventions depends on donor coordination and an understanding of health system challenges. Planning requires consideration of allocation (services to be delivered), production (organisation of services), distribution (beneficiaries of services) and financing. The criteria for selecting interventions are: their impact on major health problems; effectiveness; the possibility of scale-up; equity; and sustainability. There are various options for financing and models of engagement, but support should always combine short-term relief with longer-term development. Stakeholders should aim not only to save lives and protect health but also to bolster nations' ability to deliver good-quality services in the long run.