Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe

Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.

     

Analyzing temporal–spatial characteristics of drought events in the northern part of Cyprus

Drought in the northern part of Cyprus has become a recurrent phenomenon. In the last few decades, Cyprus has experienced significantly severe drought events occurring periodically, and this trend is now continuing. With rainfall distribution varying considerably across the region and frequent drought conditions, the water resources, agriculture, economy and the environment have been adversely affected. This study aims to investigate spatial–temporal characteristic of drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales (3, 6 and 12 months). Monthly time series of 36 years (1977–2013) rainfall data from nine weather stations are used to derive SPI values. Based on different drought categories, this study focuses on propagation of drought from one timescale to another and estimating critical rainfall values during moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions. The analysis revealed that there is a strong correlation among different timescales in detecting drought events. On average, 79 and 78% of 3-month timescale drought propagated into 6- and 12-month drought events, respectively, while 90% of 6-month timescale drought events propagated into 12-month drought events. The derived critical rainfall value for extreme droughts over a 12-month timescale was less than 255 mm/year in the town of Alsancak, while for Guzelyurt, a major citrus growing city, this figure was less than 135 mm/year. The results are validated through drought events detected at various regions of the Mediterranean basin and local flood occurrences during the wet periods and decline in water tables at drought seasons.     

Water management and aquatic ecosystem services of a tropical reservoir (Itaparica,São Francisco,Brazil)

Reservoirs have a wide variety of uses that have led to frequent conflicts over ecological conservation and contamination, especially as land management has intensified. Oligotrophication must be implemented in numerous tropical reservoirs that experience advanced eutrophication to maintain aquatic ecosystem functions. To quantify impacts on ecosystem functions and to develop an adaptive management policy, multiple studies have been conducted on the Itaparica Reservoir, São Francisco River, in the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil. Here, we add to that existing body of knowledge through investigating how nutrient accumulation is affected by water exchange between the main river flow and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Operational water-level fluctuations in the reservoir create large desiccated littoral areas that release high amounts of nutrients when they are rewetted. In particular, water-level variation promotes proliferation of Egeria densa, a noxious weed, thus elevating trophic levels of the Itaparica Reservoir and Icó-Mandantes Bay. Analysis with a P efficiency model determined 25 μg P L^?1 to be the critical concentration and further indicated that the critical load in both bodies of water have been exceeded. Moreover, intensive fish aquaculture using net cages has led to further overtaxing of the reservoir. We conclude that an effective ecological reservoir management policy must involve oligotrophication, harvesting of noxious water weeds for use as soil amendment in agriculture or biogas production, “blue” aquaculture, and limiting hydroelectric power production based on current water availability.     

Between Active Seekers and Non-Users: Segments of Science-related Media Usage in Switzerland and Germany

ABSTRACT

Citizens’ attitudes toward science are related to their use of science-related information from various sources. Evidence is scarce regarding citizens’ individual media repertoires for staying informed about science as segmentation studies so far have primarily focused on scientific attitudes. In this paper, we explore audience segments regarding their science-related information behavior and whether such segments are comparable or vary between two countries with similar information environments. Based on two surveys in Switzerland and Germany, we identify national audience segments that differ in their science-related information repertoires, and analyze their sociodemographic characteristics and science-related attitudes. In both countries, we find very comparable information user segments ranging from those who inform themselves frequently about science (“Active Seekers”/“Science Consumers”) to those who hardly get in contact with any information about science and research (“Non-Users”). Those segments which get in contact with information about science frequently show generally more positive attitudes.     

An integrated approach for assessing the migration behavior of chlorpyrifos and carbaryl in the unsaturated soil zone

Chlorpyrifos (O, O-diethyl O-3,5,6-trichloropyridin-2-yl phosphorothioate) and carbaryl (1-naphthyl methylcarbamate) are often applied concurrently as insecticides in food production. The aim of this study was to research their migration behavior in a real environment. We researched the leaching of both pesticides by setting up field lysimeters on a farm with the typical soil used in fruit production today. In order to analyze the variables involved in this process, we performed complementary adsorption studies, we performed complementary adsorption studies using batches and undisturbed soil laboratory columns for both compounds. The results for pesticide transport through the lysimeters showed that less than 1% of chlorpyrifos was recovered in the leachates, while almost 17% was recovered for carbaryl. Having completed the experiment in undisturbed laboratory columns, soil analysis showed that chlorpyrifos mainly remained in the first 5 cm, while carbaryl moved down to the lower sections. These results can be explained in view of the sorption coefficient values (K_D) obtained in horizons A and B for chlorpyrifos (393 and 184 L kg^?1) and carbaryl (3.1 and 4.2 L kg^?1), respectively. By integrating the results obtained in the different approaches, we were able to characterize the percolation modes of these pesticides in the soil matrix, thus contributing to the sustainable use of resources.     

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.     

Long-term dispersion and availability of metals from submarine mine tailing disposal in a fjord in Arctic Norway

Mining of Cu took place in Kvalsund in the Arctic part of Norway in the 1970s, and mine tailings were discharged to the inner part of the fjord, Repparfjorden. Metal speciation analysis was used to assess the historical dispersion of metals as well as their potential bioavailability from the area of the mine tailing disposal. It was revealed that the dispersion of Ba, Cr, Ni, Pb and Zn from the mine tailings has been limited. Dispersion of Cu to the outer fjord has, however, occurred; the amounts released and dispersed from the mine tailing disposal area quantified to be 2.5–10 t, less than 5% of Cu in the original mine tailings. An estimated 80–390 t of Cu still remains in the disposal area from the surface to a depth of 16 cm. Metal partitioning showed that 56–95% of the Cu is bound in the potential bioavailable fractions (exchangeable, reducible and oxidisable) of the sediments, totalling approximately 70–340 t, with potential for continuous release to the pore water and re-precipitation in over- and underlying sediments. Surface sediments in the deposit area were affected by elevated Cu concentrations just above the probable effect level according to the Norwegian sediment quality criteria, with 50–80% Cu bound in the exchangeable, reducible and oxidisable fractions, potentially available for release to the water column and/or for uptake in benthic organisms.     

Development of an efficient and sensitive analytical method for the determination of copper at trace levels by slotted quartz tube atomic absorption spectrometry after vortex-assisted dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction in biota and water samples using a novel ligand

This study describes the determination of trace levels of copper by slotted quartz tube atomic absorption spectrometry after dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction. A ligand synthesized from the reaction of salicylaldehyde and 1-naphthylamine was used to form coordinate copper complex prior to extraction. All parameters that influence the output of complex formation, extraction, and instrumental measurement were optimized to enhance the absorbance signal of copper. Under the optimum conditions, about 104-fold enhancement in sensitivity was recorded over the conventional flame atomic absorption spectrometer, corresponding to a 0.51 ng/mL detection limit. The percent relative standard deviation calculated for the lowest concentration (4.8%) indicated high precision for the experimental procedure. Accuracy and applicability of the optimum method were determined by performing spiked recovery tests on urine, lake water, and mineral water samples. Satisfactory recovery results were obtained between 82.2 and 106.3% at four different concentrations. Matrix matching method was also performed to increase the accuracy of quantification, and the percent recovery calculated for 175 ng/mL was 105.14%.     

Carbon and nitrogen mineralization in Vertisol as mediated by type and placement method of residue

Selection of appropriate residue application method is essential for better use of biomass for soil and environmental health improvement. A laboratory incubation experiment was conducted for 75 days to investigate C and N mineralization of residues of soybean (Glycine max L.), chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.), maize (Zea mays L.), and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) placed on the soil surface and incorporated into the soil. The residue of soybean and chickpea had a greater decomposition rate than that of maize and wheat, despite of their placements. Higher rate of decomposition of the residue of soybean and chickpea was recorded when it was kept on the soil surface while soil incorporation of residue of wheat and maize resulted in faster decomposition. Therefore, these findings could be used as guidelines for management of crop residue application in farmland to improve soil and environmental quality.