Multi-model analysis of tree competition along environmental gradients in southern New England forests.

Robust predictions of competitive interactions among canopy trees and variation in tree growth along environmental gradients represent key challenges for the management of mixed-species, uneven-aged forests. We analyzed the effects of competition on tree growth along environmental gradients for eight of the most common tree species in southern New England and southeastern New York using forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data, information theoretic decision criteria, and multi-model inference to evaluate models. The suite of models estimated growth of individual trees as a species-specific function of average potential diameter growth, tree diameter at breast height, local environmental conditions, and crowding by neighboring trees. We used ordination based on the relative basal area of species to generate a measure of site conditions in each plot. Two ordination axes were consistent with variation in species abundance along moisture and fertility gradients. Estimated potential growth varied along at least one of these axes for six of the eight species; peak relative abundance of less shade-tolerant species was in all cases displaced away from sites where they showed maximum potential growth. Our crowding functions estimate the strength of competitive effects of neighbors; only one species showed support for the hypothesis that all species of competitors have equivalent effects on growth. The relative weight of evidence (Akaike weights) for the best models varied from a low of 0.207 for Fraxinus americana to 0.747 for Quercus rubra. In such cases, model averaging provides a more robust platform for prediction than that based solely on the best model. We show that predictions based on the selected best models dramatically overestimated differences between species relative to predictions based on the averaged set of models.     

Urbanization affects stream ecosystem function by altering hydrology, chemistry, and biotic richness.

Catchment urbanization can alter physical, chemical, and biological attributes of stream ecosystems. In particular, changes in land use may affect the dynamics of organic matter decomposition, a measure of ecosystem function. We examined leaf-litter decomposition in 18 tributaries of the St. Johns River, Florida, USA. Land use in all 18 catchments ranged from 0% to 93% urban which translated to 0% to 66% total impervious area (TIA). Using a litter-bag technique, we measured mass loss, fungal biomass, and macroinvertebrate biomass for two leaf species (red maple [Acer rubrum] and sweetgum [Liquidambar styraciflua]). Rates of litter mass loss, which ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 per day for red maple and 0.006 to 0.018 per day for sweetgum, increased with impervious catchment area to levels of approximately 30-40% TIA and then decreased as impervious catchment area exceeded 40% TIA. Fungal biomass was also highest in streams draining catchments with intermediate levels of TIA. Macroinvertebrate biomass ranged from 17 to 354 mg/bag for red maple and from 15 to 399 mg/bag for sweetgum. Snail biomass and snail and total invertebrate richness were strongly related to breakdown rates among streams regardless of leaf species. Land-use and physical, chemical, and biological variables were highly intercorrelated. Principal-components analysis was therefore used to reduce the variables into several orthogonal axes. Using stepwise regression, we found that flow regime, snail biomass, snail and total invertebrate richness, and metal and nutrient content (which varied in a nonlinear manner with impervious surface area) were likely factors affecting litter breakdown rates in these streams.     

A new synergetic paradigm in environmental numerical modeling: Hybrid models combining deterministic and machine learning components

A new type of environmental numerical models, hybrid environmental numerical models (HEMs) based on combining deterministic modeling and machine learning components, is introduced and formulated. Conceptual and practical possibilities of developing HEM, as an optimal synergetic combination of the traditional deterministic/first principles modeling (like that used for solving PDEs on the sphere representing model dynamics of global climate models) and machine learning components (like accurate and fast neural network emulations of model physics or chemistry processes), are discussed. Examples of developed HEMs (hybrid climate models and a hybrid wind–wave ocean model) illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new approach for modeling extremely complex multidimensional systems.     

Localization of infaunal prey by the sea star<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Leptasterias polaris</Emphasis>

We performed field and laboratory studies to investigate how large adult Leptasterias polaris detect and locate their major prey, large infaunal bivalves, in the sediment bottom community. A field survey using SCUBA diving showed that 95% of the locations where L. polaris dug into the sediment bottom were over bivalves and this success rate was much greater than if digging was done at random (22%). Furthermore, when sea stars were provided with a low density of randomly distributed prey in a laboratory arena, they dug exclusively in locations where a clam had been buried. These observations indicated that L. polaris locates infaunal prey prior to investing energy into digging. Studies in a laboratory flow tank showed that L. polaris readily detected and moved towards its preferred prey Ensis directus whereas its responses to less preferred prey Mya truncata and Spisula polynyma were much weaker. The degree to which it oriented towards these three common prey seemed to reflect potential energy intake relative to foraging costs (which likely increase with the depth of the different prey) and risks from interactions with other carnivores (which are greatest when feeding on large prey). This is the first study to clearly demonstrate that sea stars use prey odours to locate infaunal prey.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00227-004-1497-1Communicated by R.J. Thompson, St. Johns     

Comparison of light- and SST-based geolocation with satellite telemetry in free-ranging albatrosses

Light-based archival tags are increasingly being used on free-ranging marine vertebrates to study their movements using geolocation estimates. These methods use algorithms that incorporate threshold light techniques to determine longitude and latitude. More recently, researchers have begun using sea surface temperature (SST) to determine latitude in temperate regions. The accuracy and application of these algorithms have not been validated on free-ranging birds. Errors in both geolocation methods were quantified by double-tagging Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis Rothschild) and black-footed (P. nigripes Audubon) albatrosses with both leg-mounted archival tags that measured SST and ambient light, and satellite transmitters. Laysan albatrosses were captured and released from breeding colonies on Tern Island, northwestern Hawaiian Islands (23°52N, 166°17W) and Guadalupe Island, Mexico (28°31N, 118°10W) and black-footed albatrosses from Tern Island. Studies were carried out between December 2002 and March 2003. For all birds combined, the mean ± SD great circle (GC) distance between light-based locations and satellite-derived locations was 400±298 km (n=131). Errors in geolocation positions were reduced to 202±171 km (n=154) when light-based longitude and SST-based latitude (i.e. SST/light) were used to establish locations. The SST/light method produced comparable results for two Laysan albatross populations that traveled within distinctly different oceanic regions (open ocean vs more coastal) whereas light-based methods produced greater errors in the coastal population. Archival tags deployed on black-footed albatrosses returned a significantly higher proportion of lower-quality locations, which was attributed to interference of the light sensor on the tag. Overall, the results demonstrate that combining measures of light-based longitude and SST-based latitude significantly reduces the error in location estimates for albatrosses and can provide valid latitude estimates during the equinoxes, when light-based latitude measurements are indeterminate.Communicated by J.P. Grassle, New Brunswick     

Stable lead isotope profiles in smelter and general urban communities: a comparison of environmental and blood measures

High-precision lead isotope ratios and lead concentrations have been compared statistically and graphically in women of child-bearing age (n = 77) from two smelter communities and one general urban community to evaluate the relative contributions to blood lead of tissue lead stores and lead from the contemporaneous environment (soil, floor dust, indoor airborne dust, water, food). Blood lead (PbB) contents were generally low (e.g. <10 g dL^–1). Statistically significant isotopic differences in blood and environmental samples were observed between the three cities although isotopic differences in blood for individual subjects living in close proximity (200 m radius) was as large as the differences within a city. No single environmental measure dominated the biological isotope profile and in many cases the low levels of blood lead meant that their isotopic profiles could be easily perturbed by relatively small changes of environmental exposure. Apportioning of sources using lead isotopes is possibly not feasible, nor cost effective, when blood lead levels are <5 g dL^–1. Interpretations based on statistical analyses of city-wide data do not give the same conclusions as when the houses are considered individually. Aggregating data from multiple subjects in a study such as this obscures potentially useful information. Most of the measures employed in this study, and many other similar studies, are markers of only short-to-medium integration of lead exposure. Serial sampling of blood and longer sampling times, especially for household variables, should provide more meaningful information.     

Separability, partial demand systems, and consumer's surplus measures

In practice, complete demand systems are not estimated. Rather, either an incomplete demand system is estimated, or separability is invoked and a partial demand system is estimated. This paper considers the relationship between the conventional compensating variation (equivalent variation) and the corresponding welfare measure that can be derived from a partial demand system and the current budget allocation to the separable group. Even assuming the separability assumption invoked is appropriate, these partial measures provide, in general, only a limited amount of information about the compensating variation and no information about the equivalent variation. Great care is therefore needed when using partial welfare measures to evaluate policy.     

Analysis of chromium and copper by cathodic stripping voltammetry with mixed ligands

Cathodic adsorptive stripping voltammetry is one of the most sensitive analytical methods for ultratrace analysis. The detection limit is usually lower than 10⁻⁹ mol/L. Most adsorptive stripping procedures have been focused on the one ligand/one analyte approach. In order to reduce analysis time and sample volume, the possibility of simultaneously determining several metals by cathodic stripping voltammetry using a mixture of ligands was explored, e.g., by Colombo and van den Berg (1997). Here, we describe a new procedure for quantifying chromium and copper using 2,2′-bipyridine and 8-hydroxyquinoline (oxine). The effect of various operational parameters such as buffer type, ligand concentration, potential and time collection were assessed and optimized. Possible interferences by trace metals and organic matter were also investigated. Applicability for fresh water is illustrated. Electronic Publication     

Lethal critical body residues as measures of Cd,Pb, and Zn bioavailability and toxicity in the earthworm<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eisenia fetida</Emphasis>

Background

Earthworm heavy metal concentrations (critical body residues, CBRs) may be the most relevant measures of heavy metal bioavailability in soils and may be linkable to toxic effects in order to better assess soil ecotoxicity. However, as earthworms possess physiological mechanisms to secrete and/or sequester absorbed metals as toxicologically inactive forms, total earthworm metal concentrations may not relate well with toxicity.

Objective

The objectives of this research were to: i) develop LD₅₀s (total earthworm metal concentration associated with 50% mortality) for Cd, Pb, and Zn; ii) evaluate the LD₅₀ for Zn in a lethal Zn-smelter soil; iii) evaluate the lethal mixture toxicity of Cd, Pb, and Zn using earthworm metal concentrations and the toxic unit (TU) approach; and iv) evaluate total and fractionated earthworm concentrations as indicators of sublethal exposure.

Methods

Earthworms (Eisenia fetida (Savigny)) were exposed to artificial soils spiked with Cd, Pb, Zn, and a Cd?Pb?Zn equitoxic mixture to estimate lethal CBRs and mixture toxicity. To evaluate the CBR developed for Zn, earthworms were also exposed to Zn-contaminated field soils receiving three different remediation treatments. Earthworm metal concentrations were measured using a procedure devised to isolate toxicologically active metal burdens via separation into cytosolic and pellet fractions.

Results and Discussion

Lethal CBRs inducing 50% mortality (LD₅₀, 95% CI) were calculated to be 5.72 (3.54–7.91), 3.33 (2.97–3.69), and 8.19 (4.78–11.6) mmol/kg for Cd, Pb, and Zn, respectively. Zn concentrations of dead earthworms exposed to a lethal remediated Zn-smelter soil were 3-fold above the LD₅₀ for Zn and comparable to earthworm concentrations in lethal Zn-spiked artificial soils, despite a 14-fold difference in total soil Zn concentration between lethal field and artificial soils. An evaluation of the acute mixture toxicity of Cd, Pb, and Zn in artificial soils using the Toxic Unit (TU) approach revealed an LD₅₀ (95% CI) of 0.99 (0.57–1.41) TU, indicating additive toxicity.

Conclusions

Total Cd, Pb, and Zn concentrations in earthworms were good indicators of lethal metal exposure, and enabled the calculation of LD₅₀s for lethality. The Zn-LD₅₀ developed in artificial soil was applicable to earthworms exposed to remediated Zn-smelter soil, despite a 14-fold difference in total soil Zn concentrations. Mixture toxicity evaluated using LD₅₀s from each single metal test indicated additive mixture toxicity among Cd, Pb, and Zn. Fractionation of earthworm tissues into cytosolic and pellet digesis yielded mixed results for detecting differences in exposure at the sublethal level.

Recommendation and Outlook

CBRs are useful in describing acute Cd, Pb, and Zn toxicity in earthworms, but linking sublethal exposure to total and/or fractionated residues may be more difficult. More research on detoxification, regulation, and tissue and subcellular partitioning of heavy metals in earthworms and other invertebrates is needed to establish the link between body residue and sublethal exposure and toxicity.