对太平洋岛屿的全球国际水域评估:跨界、水资源短缺和沿海渔业问题

跨界、水资源短缺和渔场问题以近期完成的太平洋岛屿全球国际水域评估(GIWA)结果为基础进行了讨论.太平洋岛屿水域面积3000万km2,占全球海洋面积的大约12%,在地理、人口和发展等方面具有多样性.全球性变化,尤其是海平面上升和海面温度的提高,是最主要的跨界关注的问题,因为它影响着生活的方方面面.水资源短缺和不可持续发展的海洋渔业问题也是讨论的议题,因为这些问题在可预见的将来会主宰整个地区,在此以斐济、基里巴斯、汤加的例子加以说明.社会经济因素,例如人口快速增长、城市化、传统生活方式的解体以及现金经济的发展,加剧了环境问题.本文提出了有助于解决这些问题的政策方案.     

瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)综述

瑞典区域气候模拟计划(SWECLIM)是一个历时6年半的国家研究网络计划,该研究网络主要涉及区域气候模拟、区域气候变化预测以及水文影响评估,并且为广大的利益相关人士提供相应信息.大部分研究活动主要针对北欧区域气候系统.最终促使建立一个先进的大气-海洋-水文相耦合的区域气候模型系统和一套区域气候变化预测体系,并促成了相关数据的积累和相关过程研究的进步.反过来,作为对不同社会部门影响分析的一个起点,这些也可以用来作为信息源和为教育服务,而且还为国际气候研究做出了贡献.     

恢复力与可持续发展:在瞬息万变的世界中增强适应能力

由于在以往的自然资源政策上逐渐暴露出了两个带根本性的错误,人们开始意识到在环境管理理论和实践方面需要进行一场全球性的重大改革.第一个错误是毫无保留地假定生态系统对人类利用所作出的反应是呈线性关系、是可以预测和控制的.第二个错误是认定人类社会与天然系统可以分别对待,不必联系在一起进行考虑.然而,从世界各地收集到的证据表明,天然系统和人类社会系统是以非线性方式运行的、在其动态运行过程中均有其显著的极限,而且,人类社会与生态系统表现为一种紧密相联的、复杂的且不断演变的综合系统.本文是代表瑞典政府环境咨询委员会编写的一份报告的摘要,这份报告是作为向2002年8月26日～9月4日在南非约翰内斯堡召开的可持续发展世界首脑会议献礼的论文而撰写的.从概念上说,恢复力是一种能缓冲变化所带来的影响、学习知识和求得发展的能力,我们将它作为在一个纷纭复杂、快速变化的世界中,是否真正懂得如何维护和提高适应能力的一种参照标准来使用.在社会、生态综合系统中,有两种有用的工具可用来提高恢复力,一种是结构严谨的工作方案,另一种是积极的适应力管理.这两种工具都需要而且有助于形成这样一种社会环境:具有灵活开放的组织机构和多层次的监管体制,允许学习适应力方面的知识和提高适应力但又不妨碍对未来的发展作出选择.     

Normal fetal cardiac anatomy–a basis for the echocardiographic detection of abnormalities

Real-time examination of the fetal heart in 350 pregnancies has allowed a composite picture of normal fetal cardiac anatomy to be established and echocardiographic interpretation has been confirmed by anatomical studies. Two echocardiographic sections are readily obtainable and are suggested as applicable to routine scanning but the specialist nature of interpreting abnormalities is stressed. Six abnormalities have been suspected during the study and five confirmed anatomically or at cardiac catheterization. In view of the low incidence of congenital heart disease in a normal obstetric population, high risk groups should perhaps be selected for cardiac scanning at the present time. These include mothers of previously affected babies, diabetic mothers and certain abnormalities of pregnancy. Fetal ascites is particularly important, being present in three of the four proven cases of cardiac abnormality.     

Prenatal diagnosis and carrier detection in mucopolysaccharidosis type II by mutation analysis. A 47,xxy male heterozygous for a missense point mutation

Identification of iduronate-2-sulphatase (IDS) gene mutations in patients with mucopolysaccharidosis type II (MPS II, Hunter syndrome) allows fast and reliable carrier detection and prenatal diagnosis. We describe here three cases of prenatal diagnosis by direct detection of the gene mutation. In addition to two affected male fetuses from two different families, a 47,XXY fetus carrying both the normal and the mutant allele was diagnosed in a third family. The latter pregnancy was carried to term and the child is obviously not affected by MPS II.     

Optimizing carbon sequestration in commercial forests by integrating carbon management objectives in wood supply modeling

This paper provides a methodology for generating forest management plans, which explicitly maximize carbon (C) sequestration at the forest-landscape level. This paper takes advantage of concepts first presented in a paper by Meng et al. (2003; Mitigation Adaptation Strategies Global Change 8:371–403) by integrating C-sequestration objective functions in existing wood supply models. Carbon-stock calculations performed in Woodstock^TM (RemSoft Inc.) are based on C yields generated from volume table data obtained from local Forest Development Survey plots and a series of wood volume-to-C content conversion factors specified in von Mirbach (2000). The approach is used to investigate the impact of three demonstration forest-management scenarios on the C budget in a 110,000 ha forest in south-central New Brunswick, Canada. Explicit demonstration scenarios addressed include (1) maximizing timber extraction either by clearcut or selection harvesting for greatest revenue generation, (2) maximizing total C storage in the forest landscape and in wood products generated from harvesting, and (3) maximizing C storage together with revenue generation. The level of clearcut harvesting was greatest for scenario 1 (≥15 × 10⁴ m³ of wood and ≥943 ha of land per harvesting period), and least for scenario 2 (=0 m³ per harvesting period) where selection harvesting dominated. Because softwood saw logs were worth more than pulpwood ($60 m⁻³ vs. $40 m⁻³) and were strategic to the long-term storage of C, the production of softwood saw logs exceeded the production of pulpwood in all scenarios. Selection harvesting was generally the preferred harvesting method across scenarios. Only in scenario 1 did levels of clearcut harvesting occasionally exceed those of selection harvesting, mainly in the removal of old, dilapidated stands early in the simulation (i.e., during periods 1 through 3). Scenario 2 provided the greatest total C-storage increase over 80 years (i.e., 14 × 10⁶ Mg C, or roughly 264 Mg ha⁻¹) at a cost of $111 per Mg C due to lost revenues. Scenarios 3 and 1 produced reduced storage rates of roughly 9 × 10⁶ Mg C and 3 × 10⁶ Mg C, respectively; about 64% and 22% of the total, 80-year C storage calculated in scenario 2. The bulk of the C in scenario 2 was stored in the forest, amounting to about 76% of the total C sequestered.     

Prenatal demonstration of a cervical myelocystocele

Myelocystocele is a rare spinal cord disorder and has not been described prenatally. We report a case in which prenatal ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated a posterior cervical mass which was initially thought to be a meningocele or an atypical cystic hygroma. Surgery performed at 1 day of age showed this to be a myelocystocele. Therefore, the differential diagnosis of an extracranial cystic mass in the posterior cervical region should be expanded to include myelocystoceles.