Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios - The Implications for Policy: An Example from Australia

Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess changes to urban flood losses for the 'most wet' and 'most dry' scenarios for the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response is likely to be incremental and accord with the 'no regrets' and the precautionary principle'.     

First-trimester free beta (hCG) screening for Down syndrome

Maternal serum free beta (hCG) levels are elevated (median 2·20 MOM) in the first trimester of pregnancy in 38 Down syndrome cases as compared with appropriate controls. This observation may form the basis for its use as a marker in screening for Down syndrome in the first trimester. Altered levels of the free beta analyte are observed in pregnancy conditions or complications other than Down syndrome.     

Adverse outcome in pregnancy following amniotic fluid isolation of Ureaplasma urealyticum

Infections in pregnancy with Ureaplasma urealyticum have been associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes, such as early abortion, stillbirth, prematurity, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Causality has been difficult to demonstrate secondary to the high prevalence of asymptomatic lower genital tract (LGT) colonization and culture data from inaccessible or potentially contaminated sites. Between 1985 and 1989, 2461 second-trimester genetic amniocenteses were evaluated at the cytogenetics section of the Children's Hospital Medical Center of Akron. All were cultured for the genital mycoplasmas: Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum. A total of nine patients were positive, all for Ureaplasma urealyticum, with one patient excluded because of subsequent therapeutic abortion. In addition, complete follow-up data, such as indication for amniocentesis, serum alpha-fetoprotein levels, gestational age at parturition, and out- come of pregnancy, were available on 86 Ureaplasma-negative (U –) patients during an approximate 2-year span within the time-frame of the study. This was in part due to physician response to a questionnaire sent after amniocentesis. Of the eight positive cultures, 100 per cent were associated with an adverse outcome, defined as fetal loss or premature delivery. This was significant compared with the U–group (p<0.001) with a more than eight times greater risk of adverse outcome. Six (75 per cent) resulted in spontaneous miscarriage within 4 weeks of amniocentesis and at less than 21 weeks' gestation. Two (25 per cent) delivered prematurely, with one (12.5 per cent) neonatal death at 24+ weeks. Histological examination of all eight placentae and the seven fetuses revealed a 100 per cent incidence of chorioamnionitis and pneumonia, respectively. In addition, in four of the five cases (80 per cent), cultures were positive for Ureaplasma urealyticum in pure culture from either placenta, fetal lung, or both tissues. The remaining case (20 per cent) was negative for aerobes, anaerobes, and mycoplasmas. The study demonstrates a significant association and supports a causal relationship between isolation of Ureaplasma from mid-trimester amniotic fluid with fetal wastage and premature birth.