Integrating economic costs into the analysis of flexible conservation management strategies.

Flexible conservation management, where measures (e.g., mowing of meadows, removing invasive species) are selected in each decision period depending on the current state of the ecological system, is generally perceived as superior to fixed management, where the same measure is applied in each decision period independent of the current state of the system. In past comparisons of fixed and flexible conservation strategies the additional costs that arise only in flexible strategies have usually been ignored. In this paper, we present a framework to integrate costs of flexible management into the evaluation of flexible conservation strategies. Using the example of an endangered butterfly species we demonstrate that the costs of flexible management may reverse the rank order of flexible and fixed conservation strategies, such that fixed strategies may lead to better ecological results than flexible ones for the same financial budget.     

Urbanization affects stream ecosystem function by altering hydrology, chemistry, and biotic richness.

Catchment urbanization can alter physical, chemical, and biological attributes of stream ecosystems. In particular, changes in land use may affect the dynamics of organic matter decomposition, a measure of ecosystem function. We examined leaf-litter decomposition in 18 tributaries of the St. Johns River, Florida, USA. Land use in all 18 catchments ranged from 0% to 93% urban which translated to 0% to 66% total impervious area (TIA). Using a litter-bag technique, we measured mass loss, fungal biomass, and macroinvertebrate biomass for two leaf species (red maple [Acer rubrum] and sweetgum [Liquidambar styraciflua]). Rates of litter mass loss, which ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 per day for red maple and 0.006 to 0.018 per day for sweetgum, increased with impervious catchment area to levels of approximately 30-40% TIA and then decreased as impervious catchment area exceeded 40% TIA. Fungal biomass was also highest in streams draining catchments with intermediate levels of TIA. Macroinvertebrate biomass ranged from 17 to 354 mg/bag for red maple and from 15 to 399 mg/bag for sweetgum. Snail biomass and snail and total invertebrate richness were strongly related to breakdown rates among streams regardless of leaf species. Land-use and physical, chemical, and biological variables were highly intercorrelated. Principal-components analysis was therefore used to reduce the variables into several orthogonal axes. Using stepwise regression, we found that flow regime, snail biomass, snail and total invertebrate richness, and metal and nutrient content (which varied in a nonlinear manner with impervious surface area) were likely factors affecting litter breakdown rates in these streams.     

A new synergetic paradigm in environmental numerical modeling: Hybrid models combining deterministic and machine learning components

A new type of environmental numerical models, hybrid environmental numerical models (HEMs) based on combining deterministic modeling and machine learning components, is introduced and formulated. Conceptual and practical possibilities of developing HEM, as an optimal synergetic combination of the traditional deterministic/first principles modeling (like that used for solving PDEs on the sphere representing model dynamics of global climate models) and machine learning components (like accurate and fast neural network emulations of model physics or chemistry processes), are discussed. Examples of developed HEMs (hybrid climate models and a hybrid wind–wave ocean model) illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new approach for modeling extremely complex multidimensional systems.     

Distribution and ecology of leptocephali of the congrid eel, Ariosoma scheelei, around Sulawesi Island, Indonesia

A survey for leptocephali around Sulawesi Island in the central Indonesian Seas during May 2001 found that the leptocephali of the congrid eel, Ariosoma scheelei, were present in all seven areas that were sampled. A total of 551 leptocephali (22–166 mm TL) were collected, and A. scheelei was by far the most abundant species of leptocephali collected during the survey. The wide range of sizes in most areas indicated that spawning had occurred during a period of several months in many different areas, although the exact spawning locations were not determined. The larger size classes were more abundant in all areas except in Tomini Bay on the northeast side of Sulawesi Island. The highest catch rates were observed at the eastern edge of the Java Sea and to the north in the Celebes Sea near Makassar Strait. Premetamorphic leptocephali were also collected in surface samples at 11 stations (N=62), but metamorphosing leptocephali (N=86) were only caught in IKMT tows that fished from the surface to about 200 m. Metamorphosing leptocephali were collected primarily at two stations in the Java Sea and Makassar Strait where a surface layer of lower-salinity water was detected. Their total lengths (105.3–153.3 mm) and the largest premetamorphic individuals suggested that this species can reach maximum sizes of about 165 mm before beginning to metamorphose. It is hypothesized that this species may be abundant in the Indonesian Seas region and that it has ecological traits such as large size at recruitment and a small size at reproduction that have made it successful in many regions of the Indo-Pacific.     

Habitat edge, land management, and rates of brood parasitism in tallgrass prairie.

Bird populations in North America's grasslands have declined sharply in recent decades. These declines are traceable, in large part, to habitat loss, but management of tallgrass prairie also has an impact. An indirect source of decline potentially associated with management is brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), which has had substantial negative impacts on many passerine hosts. Using a novel application of regression trees, we analyzed an extensive five-year set of nest data to test how management of tallgrass prairie affected rates of brood parasitism. We examined seven landscape features that may have been associated with parasitism: presence of edge, burning, or grazing, and distance of the nest from woody vegetation, water, roads, or fences. All five grassland passerines that we included in the analyses exhibited evidence of an edge effect: the Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), Henslow's Sparrow (A. henslowii), Dickcissel (Spiza americana), Red-winged Blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), and Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna). The edge was represented by narrow strips of woody vegetation occurring along roadsides cut through tallgrass prairie. The sparrows avoided nesting along these woody edges, whereas the other three species experienced significantly higher (1.9-5.3x) rates of parasitism along edges than in prairie. The edge effect could be related directly to increase in parasitism rate with decreased distance from woody vegetation. After accounting for edge effect in these three species, we found evidence for significantly higher (2.5-10.5x) rates of parasitism in grazed plots, particularly those burned in spring to increase forage, than in undisturbed prairie. Regression tree analysis proved to be an important tool for hierarchically parsing various landscape features that affect parasitism rates. We conclude that, on the Great Plains, rates of brood parasitism are strongly associated with relatively recent road cuts, in that edge effects manifest themselves through the presence of trees, a novel habitat component in much of the tallgrass prairie. Grazing is also a key associate of increased parasitism. Areas managed with prescribed fire, used frequently to increase forage for grazing cattle, may experience higher rates of brood parasitism. Regardless, removing trees and shrubs along roadsides and refraining from planting them along new roads may benefit grassland birds.     

Multi-model analysis of tree competition along environmental gradients in southern New England forests.

Robust predictions of competitive interactions among canopy trees and variation in tree growth along environmental gradients represent key challenges for the management of mixed-species, uneven-aged forests. We analyzed the effects of competition on tree growth along environmental gradients for eight of the most common tree species in southern New England and southeastern New York using forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data, information theoretic decision criteria, and multi-model inference to evaluate models. The suite of models estimated growth of individual trees as a species-specific function of average potential diameter growth, tree diameter at breast height, local environmental conditions, and crowding by neighboring trees. We used ordination based on the relative basal area of species to generate a measure of site conditions in each plot. Two ordination axes were consistent with variation in species abundance along moisture and fertility gradients. Estimated potential growth varied along at least one of these axes for six of the eight species; peak relative abundance of less shade-tolerant species was in all cases displaced away from sites where they showed maximum potential growth. Our crowding functions estimate the strength of competitive effects of neighbors; only one species showed support for the hypothesis that all species of competitors have equivalent effects on growth. The relative weight of evidence (Akaike weights) for the best models varied from a low of 0.207 for Fraxinus americana to 0.747 for Quercus rubra. In such cases, model averaging provides a more robust platform for prediction than that based solely on the best model. We show that predictions based on the selected best models dramatically overestimated differences between species relative to predictions based on the averaged set of models.     

Critical technical elements of state bioassessment programs: a process to evaluate program rigor and comparability

We developed a systematic process to evaluate state/tribal bioassessment programs to provide information about the rigor of the technical approach. This is accomplished via on-site interviews to produce an evaluation that assigns one of four levels of rigor as an outcome. Level 4 is the most rigorous and reflects a technical capacity to accurately determine incremental condition and support management programs. The remaining three levels are less able to assess incremental condition and are appropriate for only some management support needs. Accurately determining impairment and diagnosing pollution-specific stressors are fundamental tasks that states/tribes must accomplish to provide management support. This goal is fulfilled to varying degrees by most states/tribes. The evaluation employs a checklist and a sliding scale of rigor for 13 technical elements. Feedback is provided to each state/tribe via a technical memorandum that describes the technical components of the monitoring program, highlights strengths, and recommends improvements for specific technical issues. This can be used to refine the bioassessment and monitoring programs to better support management programs. The results of 14 state/tribal evaluations are included here. The majority (nine states, one tribe) revealed that most operate at level 2 with developmental activities that will elevate the level of program rigor already underway. Two states operate level 4 programs and each have numeric biocriteria and refined designated uses in their water quality standards. This is the ultimate goal of the process of engaging states in the development of bioassessment programs in the U.S.     

Assessment and significance of phytoplankton species composition within Chesapeake Bay and Virginia tributaries through a long-term monitoring program

Phytoplankton and water quality long term trends are presented from a 20-year monitoring program of Chesapeake Bay and several of its major tributaries. Increasing phytoplankton biomass and abundance are ongoing within this estuarine complex, with diatoms the dominant component, along with chlorophytes and cyanobacteria as sub-dominant contributors in the tidal freshwater and oligohaline regions. Diatoms, dinoflagellates, and cryptomonads are among the major flora downstream in the tributaries and within the Chesapeake Bay. Water quality conditions within the three tributaries have remained rather stable over this time period; while there are long term trends of reduced nutrients, increasing bottom oxygen, and decreasing water clarity for the lower Chesapeake Bay. Of note is an increasing trend of cyanobacteria biomass at 12 of the 13 stations monitored at tributary and Chesapeake Bay stations, plus the presence of 37 potentially harmful taxa reported for these waters. However, the overall status of the phytoplankton populations is presently favorable, in that it is mainly represented and dominated by taxa suitable as a major food and oxygen source within this ecosystem. Although potentially harmful taxa are present, they have not at this time exerted profound impact to the region, or replaced the diatom populations in overall dominance.     

Characterizing the forest fragmentation of Canada’s national parks

Characterizing the amount and configuration of forests can provide insights into habitat quality, biodiversity, and land use. The establishment of protected areas can be a mechanism for maintaining large, contiguous areas of forests, and the loss and fragmentation of forest habitat is a potential threat to Canada’s national park system. Using the Earth Observation for Sustainable Development of Forests (EOSD) land cover product (EOSD LC 2000), we characterize the circa 2000 forest patterns in 26 of Canada’s national parks and compare these to forest patterns in the ecological units surrounding these parks, referred to as the greater park ecosystem (GPE). Five landscape pattern metrics were analyzed: number of forest patches, mean forest patch size (hectare), standard deviation of forest patch size (hectare), mean forest patch perimeter-to-area ratio (meters per hectare), and edge density of forest patches (meters per hectare). An assumption is often made that forests within park boundaries are less fragmented than the surrounding GPE, as indicated by fewer forest patches, a larger mean forest patch size, less variability in forest patch size, a lower perimeter-to-area ratio, and lower forest edge density. Of the 26 national parks we analyzed, 58% had significantly fewer patches, 46% had a significantly larger mean forest patch size (23% were not significantly different), and 46% had a significantly smaller standard deviation of forest patch size (31% were not significantly different), relative to their GPEs. For forest patch perimeter-to-area ratio and forest edge density, equal proportions of parks had values that were significantly larger or smaller than their respective GPEs and no clear trend emerged. In summary, all the national parks we analyzed, with the exception of the Georgian Bay Islands, were found to be significantly different from their corresponding GPE for at least one of the five metrics assessed, and 50% of the 26 parks were significantly different from their respective GPEs for all of the metrics assessed. The EOSD LC 2000 provides a heretofore unavailable dataset for characterizing broad trends in forest fragmentation in Canada’s national parks and in their surrounding GPEs. The interpretation of forest fragmentation metrics must be guided by the underlying land cover context, as many forested ecosystems in Canada are naturally fragmented due to wetlands and topography. Furthermore, interpretation must also consider the management context, as some parks are designed to preserve fragmented habitats. An analysis of forest pattern such as that described herein provides a baseline, from which changes in fragmentation patterns over time could be monitored, enabled by earth observation data.     

Evaluation of geochemical associations as a screening tool for identifying anthropogenic trace metal contamination

Geochemical association plots are used as a screening tool for environmental site assessments and use empirical log–log relationships between total trace metal concentrations and concentrations of a major (i.e., reference) soil metal constituent, such as iron (Fe), to discern sites with naturally elevated trace metal levels from sites with anthropogenic contamination. Log–log relationships have been consistently observed between trace metal and reference metal concentrations and are often considered constant. Consequently, we used a regional geochemistry data set to evaluate background trace metal/Fe log–log associations across soils with highly diverse composition. Our results indicate that, although geochemical associations may be proportional, they significantly differ across predominant United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) soil orders. This suggests that highly complex interactions between soil-forming factors and variable secondary clay mineral composition affect the ratio of trace metals to Fe concentrations in soils. Also, intra-order variability in trace metal/Fe ratios generally ranged multiple orders of magnitude which suggest that the order level of the USDA soil taxonomic system is insufficient to reasonably classify background trace metal concentrations. Consequently, geochemical association plots are a useful screening tool for environmental site assessments, but ubiquitous application of generic background metal data sets could result in erroneous conclusions. Because significantly different ratios were observed across predominant USDA soil orders, an agglomerative clustering technique was used to elucidate hierarchical patterns of association. We present these results as a mechanism to aid environmental assessors in screening candidate background metal data sets for their applicability to site-specific soil composition; although site-specific background metal data should be utilized if ample pristine reference sites with similar (i.e., sub-order) soil composition can be identified and sampled.