Composite likelihood approach to the regression analysis of spatial multivariate ordinal data and spatial compositional data with exact zero values

In many environmental and ecological studies, it is of interest to model compositional data. One approach is to consider positive random vectors that are subject to a unit-sum constraint. In landscape ecological studies, it is common that compositional data are also sampled in space with some elements of the composition absent at certain sampling sites. In this paper, we first propose a practical spatial multivariate ordered probit model for multivariate ordinal data, where the response variables can be viewed as the discretized non-negative compositions without the unit-sum constraint. We then propose a novel two-stage spatial mixture Dirichlet regression model. The first stage models the spatial dependence and the presence of exact zero values, and the second stage models all the non-zero compositional data. A maximum composite likelihood approach is developed for parameter estimation and inference in both the spatial multivariate ordered probit model and the two-stage spatial mixture Dirichlet regression model. The standard errors of the parameter estimates are computed by an estimate of the Godambe information matrix. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed models and methods. A land cover data example in landscape ecology further illustrates that accounting for spatial dependence can improve the accuracy in the prediction of presence/absence of different land covers as well as the magnitude of land cover compositions.     

Social capital as a key determinant of perceived benefits of community‐based marine protected areas

Globally, marine protected areas (MPAs) have been relatively unsuccessful in meeting biodiversity objectives. To be effective, they require some alteration of people's use and access to marine resources, which they will resist if they do not perceive associated benefits. Stakeholders’ support is crucial to ecological success of MPAs, and their support is likely to depend on their capacity to adapt to and benefit from MPAs. We examined the influence of social adaptive capacity (SAC) on perceived benefits of MPAs in Siquijor, Philippines, in the Coral Triangle. This region has substantial biodiversity and a population of over 120 million people, many of them dependent on marine resources for food and income. The region has many MPAs, most of which are managed under decentralized governance systems. We collected survey data from 540 households in 19 villages with associated MPAs. We evaluated the influence of multiple SAC variables (e.g., occupational multiplicity and social capital) on perceived benefits with decision trees (CHAID) and qualitatively analyzed this relationship with respect to types and recipients of benefits. Our models revealed the key role of social capital, particularly trust in leadership, in influencing perceptions of benefits (χ² = 14.762, p = 0.000). A path analysis revealed that perceptions of distributional equity were a key mechanism through which social capital affected perceived MPA benefits (root mean‐square error of approximation = 0.050). Building social capital and equity within communities could lead to more effective management of MPAs and thus to expenditure of fewer resources relative to, for example, regulation enforcement.     

Elements of a certification system for forestry-based carbon offset projects

Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will require theestablishment of procedures for monitoring,verification and certification of carbon offsetprojects. In this paper, the steps required forindependent certification of forestry-based carbonoffset projects are reviewed, based on the proceduresused by the international certification companySociété Générale de Surveillance.Firstly, a project must be evaluated for itssuitability in relation to eligibility criteria of theKyoto Protocol. These eligibility criteria areclassified under four headings: (a) acceptability tohost country parties and international agreements; (b)additionality, in terms of demonstrated positivegreenhouse gas effects additional to the`business-as-usual' case; (c) externalities orunwanted side effects; and, (d) capacity to implementproject's activities. Secondly, the scientificmethodology for calculating the carbon offsets and themethodology for data collection and statisticalanalysis must be evaluated. Additionally, the amountof carbon offsets quantified must be adjusted toreflect the uncertainty associated with themethodology and data used. Only when these steps havebeen completed can carbon offsets be certified.Finally, the paper discusses the importance ofstandardization of methods and procedures used forproject monitoring and verification, and the need foraccreditation to ensure that the activities ofcertifiers are regulated.     

Bioaccumulation and critical body residue of PAHs in the amphipod,Diporeia spp: additional evidence to support toxicity additivity for PAH mixtures

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are considered to act additively when exposed as congener mixtures. Additive internal concentrations at the site of toxic action is the basis for recent efforts to establish a sum PAH guideline for sediment-associated PAH toxicity. This study determined the toxicity of several PAH congeners on a body residue basis in Diporeia spp. These values were compared to the previously established LR(50) value for a PAH mixture based on the molar sum of PAH congeners and demonstrated similar LR(50) values for individual PAH. These results support the contention that the PAH act at the same molar concentration whether present as individual compounds or in mixture. Aqueous exposures were conducted for 28 d, and the water was exchanged daily to maintain the exposure concentration. The concentration in the exposures declined by an average of 22% between water exchanges across all compounds, and ranged from 11% to 32%. The toxicokinetics were determined using both time-weighted-average (TWA) and time-variable water concentrations and were not statistically different between the two source functions. Toxicity was determined for both mortality and immobility (failure to swim on prodding) and on both a TWA water concentration and a body residue basis. The LC(50) values ranged from 1757 microg l(-1) for naphthalene after 10 d exposure to 79.1 microg l(-1) for pyrene after 28 d exposure, and the EC(50) ranged from 1587 microg l(-1) for naphthalene after 10 d exposure to 38.2 microg l(-1) for pyrene after 28 d exposure. The LR(50) values for all congeners at all lengths of exposure were essentially constant and averaged 7.5+/-2.6 micromol g(-1), while the ER(50) for immobility averaged 2.6+/-0.6 micromol g(-1). The bioconcentration factor declined with increasing exposure concentration and was driven primarily by a lower uptake rate with increasing dose, while the elimination remained essentially constant for each compound.     

Comparison of the 1-hr and 8-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standards for ozone using Models-3

In 1997, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency revised the National Ambient Air Quality Standard governing ozone (O3), adding an 8-hr standard of 0.08 ppm and phasing out the 1-hr requirement of 0.12 ppm. The 8-hr standard is intended to provide greater protection for human health. This research examines spatial and temporal patterns of exceedances of the standards using monitoring data and modeled estimates. The Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model and Models-3 framework were used to estimate hourly O3 concentrations for 4-km resolution in the Maryland/Virginia/Delaware/Washington, DC, and northern Georgia domains. Results reveal that the spatial and temporal nature of compliance is considerably different under the 8-hr standard. In the modeling simulations, the 8-hr standard was exceeded 2-5.2 times more often and in a 1.8-16.2 times larger area than the 1-hr standard. The 8-hr standard was exceeded in areas that generally comply with the 1-hr standard and are not well covered by the monitoring network. These results imply that a larger population resides in areas with unhealthy O3 levels than noncompliance with the original 1-hr standard suggests. For the MD/VA/DE/DC domains, 80 and 98% of the total population live in areas with 8-hr National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) exceedances for the 1990 and 1995 episodes, respectively.     

Pheromone-based aggregation behaviour of the firebrat, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thermobia domestica</Emphasis> (Packard) (Thysanura: Lepismatidae)

Summary. We tested the hypothesis that aggregation behaviour of the firebrat, Thermobia domestica (Packard) (Thysanura: Lepismatidae), an inhabitant of enclosed microhabitats, is mediated, at least in part, by a pheromone. Individual insects were released into the central chamber of a 3-chambered olfactometer and test stimuli were placed in lateral chambers. Paper discs previously exposed for 3 days to 10 female, male, or juvenile T. domestica were all preferred by female, male, or juvenile T. domestica over unexposed paper discs, indicating the presence of an aggregation/arrestment pheromone. In additional experiments, frass and scales from female T. domestica, tested singly and in combination, proved not to be the source of the pheromone. Physical contact was required for pheromone recognition, indicating that the pheromone arrests rather than attracts conspecifics. Arrestment by the long-tailed silverfish, Ctenolepisma longicaudata Escherich (Thysanura: Lepismatidae), but not by the common silverfish, Lepisma saccharina L. (Thysanura: Lepismatidae), to T. domestica exposed paper discs suggests closer phylogenetic relatedness between C. longicaudata and T. domestica, than between C. longicaudata and L. saccharina. Whether C. longicaudata or L. saccharina produce an aggregation signal, and whether T. domestica respond to this signal is unknown. Received 10 June 2002; accepted 30 September 2002.     

Assessing cypermethrin-contaminated soil with three different earthworm test methods

A series of tests (lethal,sublethal,and behavioral) on earthworms were conducted as an eco-assessment of pesticides.In this study,the toxicity of cypermethrin-contaminating soil on adult and juvenile earthworms was assessed.Beside the acute and chronic tests,an avoidance response test was carried out.It was shown that the all-round toxicity from cypermethrin was weak on adult earthworms.Compared with adult earthworms,the toxicity of juvenile earthworms from cypermethrin especially chronic toxicity increased...     

Multiple stressors in amphibian communities: effects of chemical contamination, bullfrogs, and fish.

A leading hypothesis of amphibian population declines is that combinations of multiple stressors contribute to declines. We examined the role that chemical contamination, competition, and predation play singly and in combination in aquatic amphibian communities. We exposed larvae of American toads (Bufo americanus), southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala), and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) to overwintered bullfrog tadpoles (R. catesbeiana), bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus), the insecticide carbaryl, and ammonium nitrate fertilizer in 1000-L mesocosms. Most significantly, our study demonstrated that the presence of multiple factors reduced survival of B. americanus and A. maculatum and lengthened larval periods of R. sphenocephala. The presence of bluegill had the largest impact on the community; it eliminated B. americanus and A. maculatum and reduced the abundance of R. sphenocephala. Chemical contaminants had the second strongest effect on the community with the insecticide, reducing A. maculatum abundance by 50% and increasing the mass of anurans (frogs and toads) at metamorphosis; the fertilizer positively influenced time and mass at metamorphosis for both anurans and A. maculatum. Presence of overwintered bullfrogs reduced mass and increased time to metamorphosis of anurans. While both bluegill and overwintered bullfrog tadpoles had negative effects on the amphibian community, they performed better in the presence of one another and in contaminated habitats. Our results indicate that predicting deleterious combinations from single-factor effects may not be straightforward. Our research supports the hypothesis that combinations of factors can negatively impact some amphibian species and could contribute to population declines.     

A project for the integrated management of protected coastal areas in Malta

This paper examines a 3-yr EU LIFE-funded project for the management of two especially protected areas on the Maltese coast. Project partners are the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Insular Coastal Dynamics (ICoD), the Gaia Foundation and the Ministry for the Environment of Malta. Project sites are the Ghajn Tuffieha area on the northwest coast of Malta, and the Ramla Bay area on the island of Gozo. While both sites are in a relatively pristine state and comprise a number of features of ecological and scientific importance, they are also prime recreational areas, hosting thousands of visitors especially during the summer months. The challenge is to manage these sites in a sustainable manner in order to protect their unique ecology while simultaneously controlling and managing the human activities taking place there. The following sequence of activities is being implemented at both sites: surveys of the resources present (biodiversity, habitats, geological and hydrological features, and archaeological heritage), implementation of first intervention measures, and the drawing up and implementation of site-specific management plans, including rehabilitation and protection of biodiversity and habitats, regulations for site use, and awareness raising and educational measures. The management structure of this project supports the concept of decentralization of management of protected areas, through the granting of responsibility for the direct management of these sites to a non-governmental organization, under joint government/EU funding. This paper thus presents the project as a model for similar initiatives for the management of protected sites in the Mediterranean.     

Factors associated with motorcycle traffic crash fatalities among active duty U.S. Army personnel

Objective: Research on factors associated with motorcycle fatalities among active duty U.S. Army personnel is limited. This analysis describes motorcycle crash–related injuries from 1995 through 2014 and assesses the effect of alcohol use and helmet use on the risk of fatal injury among active duty U.S. Army motorcycle operators involved in a traffic crash, controlling for other factors shown to be potentially associated with fatality in this population.

Methods: Demographics, crash information, and injury data were obtained from safety reports maintained in the Army Safety Management Information System. Traffic crashes were defined as crashes occurring on a paved public or private roadway or parking area, including those on a U.S. Army installation. Analysis was limited to motorcycle operators. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) from a multivariable analysis estimated the effect of alcohol use and helmet use on the risk of a fatal injury given a crash occurred, controlling for operator and crash characteristics.

Results: Of the 2,852 motorcycle traffic crashes, most involved men (97%), operators aged 20–29 years of age (60%), and operators who wore helmets (95%) and did not use alcohol (92%). Two thirds of reported crashes resulted in injuries requiring a lost workday; 17% resulted in fatality. Controlling for operator and crash characteristics, motorcycle traffic crashes involving operators who had used alcohol had a 3.1 times higher odds of fatality than those who did not use alcohol (OR =3.14; 95% CI, 2.17–4.53). Operators who did not wear a helmet had 1.9 times higher odds of fatality than those who did wear a helmet (OR =1.89; 95% CI, 1.24–2.89).

Conclusions: Among U.S. Army motorcycle operators, alcohol use and not wearing a helmet increased the odds of fatality, given that a crash occurred, and additional modifiable risk factors were identified. Results will help inform U.S. Army motorcycle policies and training.