Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play a major role in addressing the challenges of sustainability management, especially the core question of how to scan the future in a structured, integrated, participatory, and policy-relevant manner. In a context of systems engineering, scenario analysis can provide an integrated and timely understanding of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach to scenario analysis provides insight into both high-performing and robust initiatives/policies, and, perhaps more importantly, influential scenarios. Identifying the scenarios that are most influential to policy making helps to direct further investigative analysis, modeling, and data-collection efforts to support the learning process that is emphasized in adaptive management.     

If not here,then perhaps not anywhere: urban growth management as a tool for sustainability planning in British Columbia's capital regional district

In 1995 the provincial government of British Columbia, Canada, passed new legislation encouraging regional districts to prepare Regional Growth Strategies. The strategies were to be means of coordinating municipal action on regional issues. They were also meant to facilitate pursuit of sustainability objectives, including reducing urban sprawl, protecting environmentally sensitive areas, providing affordable housing and decreasing pollution. This paper examines the experience so far in one region that chose to prepare a growth strategy: the Capital Regional District (CRD) at the south end of Vancouver Island. Growth‐management planning in the CRD has been and remains both critical and difficult. The region expects a substantial population increase over the next couple of decades and has a limited land base for urban expansion. Many citizens recognise that their quality of life is high, but vulnerable and, as a result, public support for effective growth management is stronger in the CRD than in many other provincial growth areas. However, BC does not have a tradition of strong regional governance and the CRD as a regional authority is the creature of sixteen municipalities and electoral areas. Seven years into the process, effective growth management still faces substantial challenges, including the persistent jurisdictional protectionism of CRD municipalities. Nevertheless, there have been positive achievements and an admirable diversity of individuals, organisations and initiatives continue to push municipal and regional officials towards a more sustainable future.     

Congenital malformations subsequent to chorionic villus sampling: Outcome analysis of 1048 consecutive procedures

We wished to identify the types and frequencies of malformations among continuing pregnancies exposed to chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and to determine whether selected procedure-related variables differ between the normal and anomalous cohorts. CVS was performed in 1048 patients between May 1988 and January 1992. Prospective assessment of perinatal outcome was ascertained by (1) physician—patient phone contact within 1 week of sampling, (2) ultrasound evaluation of the fetal anatomy at mid-gestation, (3) a detailed post-partum questionnaire completed by the referring obstetrician, and (4) a telephone interview with each patient after the expected date of confinement. Twenty-seven major malformations were documented among 938 pregnancies (live born, n=934; electively terminated, n=4), and included cardiac malformations (5), hypospadias (5), craniosynostosis (2), pyloric stenosis (2), inguinal hernia (2), polydactyly (2), syndactyly, distal extremely hemimelia, anencephaly, hydrocephalus, cleft lip and palate, omphalocele, diaphragmatic hernia, thanatophoric dysplasia, and unilateral cataract. Normal and anomalous cohorts were similar with respect to sampling method (transabdominal/transcervical ratio), mean gestational age at CVS, single-pass success rate, and mean total sample weight. No relationship between any procedure-related variable and the risk of malformation was observed.     

Arsenic-induced skin conditions identified in southwest dermatology practices: an epidemiologic tool?

Populations living in the Southwest United States are more likely to be exposed to elevated drinking water arsenic levels compared to other areas of the country. Skin changes, including hyperpigmentation and generalized hyperkeratosis, are the most common signs of chronic arsenic ingestion from drinking water. The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of using dermatology practices in New Mexico, Arizona, and western Texas as a surveillance system for arsenical skin disorders related to drinking water. Postcard questionnaires were mailed to practicing dermatologists. The number of cases of arsenical hyperpigmentation/keratoses seen by these dermatologists during the past 10 years and the past year were estimated. Of 240 dermatologists who were mailed questionnaires, 37 reported seeing 237 patients with arsenical hyperpigmentation/keratoses in the past 10 years and 35 patients in the past year. Since approximately one-eighth of dermatologists practicing in the Southwest saw at least one patient with arsenical hyperpigmentation/keratoses during one year, it appears feasible to complete a population-based study of these conditions.     

The characteristics of young Indigenous drink drivers in Queensland,Australia

Objective: This study investigates the prevalence and characteristics of first drink driving convictions among young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians (aged from 14 to 24) and considers some of the risk factors associated with recidivism.

Methods: Convictions recorded between 2006 and 2013 were extracted from the Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney General database. Convictions were regrouped by gender, age, Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia classification, and sentence severity. Chi-square analyses and logistic regression were conducted to identify group differences in offense characteristics for gender and recidivism (recidivists versus nonrecidivists).

Results: The sample consisted of 1,583 individuals (74.1% males) convicted in the 8-year period. Gender comparisons showed that there was no significant difference in age at time of first offense, blood alcohol concentration (BAC) level at apprehension, or type of penalty received between males and females. However, males received larger fines and longer periods of license disqualification. Comparisons for reoffending and non-reoffending revealed that males, drivers aged 14–17 years of age and 18 to 20 years of age, and inner regional drivers were more likely to reoffend.

Conclusions: There were limited differences between females and males or recidivists and nonrecidivists at first conviction. Convictions for drink driving may provide an opportunity for early alcohol intervention with Indigenous young drivers (<20 years) because it is likely to be an individual's first alcohol-related conviction.     

Value of Soil Organic Carbon in Agricultural Lands

Immediate efforts to increase soil carbonsequestration and minimize terrestrialgreenhouse gas emissions are needed tomitigate global warming. Whether or notterrestrial stocks become sinks or netsources of C over the next century willdepend upon how fast and at what level weare able to stabilize carbon dioxidelevels. The cost of soil C sequestrationis at present relatively low compared toother C emission reduction technologiesmaking soil C sinks an important short-termsolution to be used while competingtechnologies are developed. However,efforts to use C sequestration in soils asCO₂ emissions offsets have facednumerous challenges. Difficultiesassociated with C stock validation (directmeasurement) and the impermanence andsaturability of soil C reservoirs raiseconcerns over whether soil C reservoirs aregood long-term investments. Pragmatism hasled to the development of indirectinventorying of the C reserves held atnational and regional scales. Suchindirect accounting systems will advance asvalidation methods are refined and asprocess models improve their ability toaccurately predict how existing soilcondition and specific land managementpractices will influence soil C storage andNO₂ and CH₄ emissions. Improveddocumentation of the value of environmentalservices and sustained productive potentialderived from optimized land use andassociated increases in soil quality willalso add to the estimated value of soil Csinks. Policies must evolve simultaneouslywith the theoretical and technical toolsneeded to promote optimization of land usepractices to mitigate climate change nowand to minimize future contributions ofsoil C to atmospheric CO₂.     

Power and Sample Size Calculations for Linear Hypotheses Associated with Mixtures of Many Components using Fixed-Ratio Ray Designs

Response surface methodology, often supported by factorial designs, is the classical experimental approach that is widely accepted for detecting and characterizing interactions among chemicals in a mixture. In an effort to reduce the experimental effort as the number of compounds under study is increased, ray designs have been proposed to study combinations of chemicals. When interest is restricted to relevant mixing ratios, we are only interested in making inference along the specific rays of interest, as opposed to methods which use designs that require more experimental effort to support the estimation of a response surface over a broader experimental region. Methods have been developed for the test of additivity along multiple fixed-ratio rays. Of primary importance is the detection of interactions with reasonable power. The objective of this paper is to address power and sample size issues related to the hypothesis of no interaction.     

Removal and recovery of metals from a coal pile runoff

The removal and recovery of heavy metals from a coal pilerunoff water using a mixture of multiple metal-tolerantbacterial strains of ATCC 55673, and ATCC 55674 and a Pseudomonas sp. was investigated. The analysis of elementalcomposition of metal precipitates recovered from the bacterialbiomass by transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersiveX-ray analysis revealed the presence of metals originally presentin the wastewater. In addition, analysis of metals in culturesupernatant and bacterial biomass by inductively coupled plasmaemission spectroscopy (ICP-ES) indicated a removal range of 82-100% and a recovery of 15-58% of metals from the wastewater and bacterial biomass, respectively.