A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE POTENTIAL OF DESALTING1

ABSTRACT The Office of Saline Water, which has federal responsibility for developing low-cost, saline sources of fresh water, has recognized the need for an improved method of forecasting the future potential of desalting in this country. The magnitude of the role of desalting will influence the plans of federal, state, and local water resource agencies and the research and development programs of manufacturers. A dynamic simulation model has been developed by Arthur D. Little, Inc. under contract by OSW to translate relevant factors of water supply and demand into a forecast of desalting potential. The model projects the needs for desalting in 20 hydrologic regions of the U.S. Model performance has thus far been demonstrated by the development of a forecast and a battery of related sensitivity tests. Current results indicate the following potential desalting capacities: 225 MGD in 1980; 2,250 MGD in 2000; and 7,000 MGD in 2020. Significant improvements in desalting economics promise to increase these potentials by a factor of four or five by 2000-2020. Model inputs and results are continuing to be refined. When completed, OSW will have a dynamic tool with which to guide its R&D program.