自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

Sustainable pattern analysis of a publicly owned Material Recovery Facility in a fast-growing urban setting under uncertainty

Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management.     

Improvements of nano-SiO2 on sludge/fly ash mortar

Sewage sludge ash has been widely applied to cementitious materials. In this study, in order to determine effects of nano-SiO(2) additives on properties of sludge/fly ash mortar, different amounts of nano-SiO(2) were added to sludge/fly ash mortar specimens to investigate their physical properties and micro-structures. A water-binding ratio of 0.7 was assigned to the mix. Substitution amounts of 0%, 10%, 20%, and 30% of sludge/fly ash (1:1 ratio) were proposed. Moreover, 0%, 1%, 2%, and 3% of nano-SiO(2) was added to the mix. Tests, including SEM and compressive strength, were carried out on mortar specimens cured at 3, 7, and 28 days. Results showed that sludge/fly ash can make the crystals of cement hydration product finer. Moreover, crystals increased after nano-SiO(2) was added. Hence, nano-SiO(2) can improve the effects of sludge/fly ash on the hydration of mortar. Further, due to the low pozzolanic reaction active index of sludge ash, early compressive strengths of sludge/fly ash mortar were decreased. Yet, nano-SiO(2) could help produce hydration crystals, which implies that the addition of nano-SiO(2) to mortar can improve the influence of sludge/fly ash on the development of the early strength of the mortar.     

活性炭电极对溶液中NaCl的电吸附行为

用活性炭、酚醛树脂和乌洛托品制备了活性炭电极。利用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、傅立叶变换红外光谱仪(FTIR)分析了电极的表面性质,发现电极表面的黏结剂可完全碳化,且活性炭上带有大量含氧官能团;利用电化学工作站采用循环伏安法对电极进行了测试,表明电吸附是一稳定而又可逆的过程,电极电流的最大值由碳化前的0.019 8A升至碳化后的0.042 7A,双电层电容提高到碳化前的2.16倍;对NaCl的电吸附实验表明碳化后电极的电吸附率是碳化前的1.59倍,活性炭的吸附容量也由1.14mg/g提高到3.29mg/g,且活性炭电极具有良好的重复利用性。     

Differences in Eye and Hand Movements of Novice and Experienced Press Operators

Presses are very widely used in industrial and commercial companies and are often the source of serious accidents occurring during operation. Most of the accidents are due to inadequate training of novice operators. Continuous recordings of eye and hand movements of five novice operators and five experienced operators in press operation were made. Significant difference between novice and experienced operators was observed in eye fixation time, eye movement patterns, hand dwell time, and eye-hand coordination. Also, differences were observed in spatial distribution of eye fixations during the die-closing portion of a stroke. There were no significant differences between novice and experienced operators in the eye and the hand movement time. The results could be used as basic data to establish a guide determining the method and training period to train novice operators.     

Influence of coal particles on methane/air mixture ignition in a heated environment

The temperature at which coal dust glows is normally much lower than the auto-ignition temperature (AIT) of methane/air mixtures, and thus a better understanding is needed regarding methane/air ignition in a heated environment in the presence of coal particles. A horizontal tube apparatus was used to test the effect of brown coal and two kinds of bituminous and anthracite on methane/air combustibility. For the four coal samples tested, the presence of coal particles significantly reduced the minimum temperature for ignition of methane/air mixtures in a heated environment. No. 1 bituminous coal with 12 mm diameter decreased the ignition temperature value from 595 to 500 °C. It is thought that pre-ignition of low-AIT volatiles emitted from the heated coal particles ignited the methane/air mixtures. Volatiles, sulfur content, and large porosity of piled coal particles all enhanced ignition of methane/air mixtures in a hot environment, while water content and small particle size reduced ignition. For anthracite, no ignition occurred when temperatures of the heated environment were lower than the AIT of methane (595 °C), except for the 12-mm-diameter sample. Anthracite did not readily ignite methane/air mixtures and the ignition mechanism was somewhat similar to that of a burning cigarette.     

静电基本参数的测试原理

静电测试是整个静电防护工程中不可或缺的组成部分,也是静电防护设计和管理的依据.本文主要介绍了静电基本参数中的静电电位、静电电容和静电电量的测试原理,并结合具体测试数据对测试的方法和仪器进行了分析.     

好氧颗粒污泥沉降选择实验研究与定量描述

以序批式反应器培养的成熟好氧颗粒污泥为对象,研究沉淀高度对颗粒数、比重、污泥浓度、粒径分布及选择系数的影响.结果表明,随着沉淀高度的增加,污泥浓度在沉淀时间为30 s时由0.24 mg.L-1明显增加至6.07 mg.L-1,平均粒径从450μm增加到550μm,颗粒圆形度增加12.67%,而复杂度减小13.47%,说明粒径较大、形状较规则的颗粒沉降较快,从而更易在沉降选择过程中得以保留.根据选择压原理,结合颗粒污泥沉降实验结果引入选择系数.实验和计算结果显示,在任意沉淀高度,选择系数随粒径和密度的增大而增加.随着沉淀高度的增加,直径>600～800μm的颗粒选择系数增加,小颗粒趋势与之相反,说明增大排水比有利于大颗粒保留而絮体被筛选出反应器,而低的排水比会使污泥颗粒化过程放缓.该研究结果可望对加速污泥颗粒化过程和提高其稳定性提供科学的理论依据和指导.     

太湖湖表反照率时空特征及影响因子

湖表反照率是影响水-气界面能量平衡和水体内部光温环境的重要因子,受到太阳高度角、云量、风速和水质等环境因子的多重影响.基于太湖中尺度涡度通量网4个涡度通量观测站点(梅梁湾、大浦口、避风港和小雷山)的辐射和风速资料,结合晴空指数和水质数据,分析上述因子对太湖湖表反照率的影响及太湖湖表反照率空间差异的原因.主要结果为:太阳高度角是控制湖表反照率日变化、季节变化的主要因子;太阳高度角低于35°且当晴空指数在0~0.1和0.4~0.6之间时湖表反照率出现高值.反照率值呈现随风速、浊度和叶绿素a浓度升高而增大的趋势,而风浪通过影响浅水湖泊浊度、叶绿素a浓度从而间接影响湖表反照率.各站点湖表反照率关系为:小雷山避风港大浦口梅梁湾,其中小雷山站位于草型和藻型湖区过渡区而梅梁湾站位于藻型湖区.反照率与叶绿素a浓度水平之间的关系对蓝藻暴发及其严重程度并不敏感.本研究为湖体反照率的参数化过程提供参考依据.     

O3-BAC深度处理工艺中细菌群落时空分布及动态变化规律

为弄清饮用水O₃-BAC深度处理工艺过程中细菌群落的时空分布和动态变化规律,本研究以我国南方某O₃-BAC深度处理工艺水厂为研究对象,采用NovaSeq6000高通量测序技术对夏季和冬季各工艺单元出水及滤砂和活性炭生物膜等细菌群落进行解析.结果表明,出厂水pH、浊度、COD_Mn、菌落总数等指标均满足《生活饮用水卫生标准》(GB5749-2006)的要求.夏季细菌群落多样性明显高于冬季,活性炭生物膜的细菌群落多样性高于滤砂生物膜;混凝沉淀、臭氧化和消毒是影响细菌群落多样性的主要工艺单元.水样和生物膜样品绝对优势菌门均为变形菌门(Proteobacteria),且主要菌门组成大体相同,但细菌群落门水平相对丰度存在一定的时空差异,属水平上差异则更为明显.此外,检测到的条件致病菌属主要包括芽孢杆菌属(Bacillus)、不动杆菌属(Acinetobacter)、假单胞菌属(Pseudomonas)和分支杆菌属(Mycobacterium),且其所占核心微生物OTUs数目不受季节性影响.水温和生物可降解溶解性有机碳(BDOC)是显...