Phosphorus transport through subsurface drainage and surface runoff from a flat watershed in east central Illinois, USA

A long-term water quality monitoring program was established to evaluate the effects of agricultural management practices on water quality in the Little Vermilion River (LVR) watershed, IL. This watershed has intensive random and irregular subsurface drainage systems. The objective of this study was to assess the fate and transport of soluble phosphorus (soluble P) through subsurface drainage and surface runoff. Four sites (sites A, B, C, and E) that had subsurface and surface monitoring programs were selected for this study. Three of the four study sites had corn (Zea mays L.) and soybeans (Glycine max L.) planted in rotations and the other site had seed corn and soybeans. Subsurface drainage and surface runoff across all sites removed an average of 16.1 and 2.6% of rainfall, respectively. Annual flow-weighted soluble P concentrations fluctuated with the precipitation, while concentrations tended to increase with high precipitation coupled with high application rates. The long-term average flow-weighted soluble P concentrations in subsurface flow were 102, 99, 194, and 86 microg L(-1) for sites A, B, C, and E, respectively. In contrast, the long-term average flow-weighted soluble P concentrations in surface runoff were 270, 253, 534, and 572 microg L(-1) for sites As, Bs, Cs, and Es, respectively. These values were substantially greater than the critical values that promote eutrophication. Statistical analysis indicated that the effects of crop, discharge, and the interactions between site and discharge and crop and discharge on soluble P concentrations in subsurface flow were significant (alpha = 0.05). Soluble P mass loads in surface runoff responded to discharge more consistently than in the subsurface flow. Subsurface flow had substantially greater annual average soluble P mass loads than surface runoff due to greater flow volume.     

Projections of hospitalised fall-related injury in NSW, Australia: impacts on the hospital and aged care sectors

Projections of the number, rate and cost of fall-related hospitalised injuries for individuals aged 65 years and older in New South Wales (NSW), Australia were estimated to 2051 for two scenarios: (1) demographic change only using 2008 admission rates; and (2) modelled change using negative binominal regression taking into account current trends in admission rates. Based on demographic change alone, the number and cost of fall injury hospitalisations among older people is expected to increase almost three-fold by 2051. Transfers to permanent residential aged care will also increase 3.2 fold. However, if the fall-related hospitalisation rate sustains its current trend, these increases are projected to be more than ten-fold by 2051. Even with demographic change alone, there will be a significant impact on the resources required to care for older people suffering a fall injury hospitalisation over the next forty years in NSW. The impact on the hospital and aged care sectors will be considerable unless significant improvements occur in the prevention and treatment of fall-related injury in older people.     

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture-recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.     

Mercury fate in ageing and melting snow: development and testing of a controlled laboratory system

A snow cover can modify when, to what extent, and in what form atmospherically deposited mercury is released to the underlying surface media and/or back to the atmosphere. Investigations of mercury transport and transformation processes in snow packs are hampered by the difficulty in controlling experimental and melt conditions and due to the huge variability in the composition and physical structure of environmental snow packs. A method was developed that allows the detailed mechanistic investigation of mercury fate in snow that is made, aged and melted under controlled laboratory conditions. A number of control samples established that mercury in indoor air, scavenged during the snow making process, constitutes the dominant source of mercury in the artificial snow. No addition of mercury is required. The amount of mercury in fresh snow was quantitatively (102 and 106% in two experiments) recovered in the dissolved and particulate fractions of the melt water and the vessel head space, confirming a mass balance for mercury and the absence of unquantifiable mercury sources and sinks in the experimental system. In snow made from unmodified tap water, more than half of the mercury present in the snowpack was recovered from the bottom of the snow vessel after all of the snow had melted. Such late elution is indicative of mercury being mostly associated with particles that are filtered by, and retained in, the shrinking snowpack. Addition of salt to the snow-making water at an environmentally realistic pH notably shifted the distribution of mercury in the snowpack from the particulate to the dissolved phase, resulting in more than 60% of the mercury eluting in the dissolved phase of early melt water fractions.     

Effects of acidic deposition on forest and aquatic ecosystems in New York State

Acidic deposition is comprised of sulfuric and nitric acids and ammonium derived from atmospheric emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and ammonia, respectively. Acidic deposition has altered soil through depletion of labile pools of nutrient cations (i.e. calcium, magnesium), accumulation of sulfur and nitrogen, and the mobilization of elevated concentrations of inorganic monomeric aluminum to soil solutions in acid-sensitive areas. Acidic deposition leaches essential calcium from needles of red spruce, making this species more susceptible to freezing injury. Mortality among sugar maples appears to result from deficiencies of nutrient cations, coupled with other stresses such as insect defoliation or drought. Acidic deposition has impaired surface water quality in the Adirondack and Catskill regions of New York by lowering pH levels, decreasing acid-neutralizing capacity, and increasing aluminum concentrations. Acidification has reduced the diversity and abundance of aquatic species in lakes and streams. There are also linkages between acidic deposition and fish mercury contamination and eutrophication of estuaries.     

Forest floor depth mediates understory vigor in xeric Pinus palustris ecosystems.

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) woodlands and savannas are among the most frequently burned ecosystems in the world with fire return intervals of 1-10 years. This fire regime has maintained high levels of biodiversity in terms of both species richness and endemism. Land use changes have reduced the area of this ecosystem by >95%, and inadequate fire frequencies threaten many of the remnants today. In the absence of frequent fire, rapid colonization of hardwoods and shrubs occurs, and a broad-leaved midstory develops. This midstory encroachment has been the focus of much research and management concern, largely based on the assumption that the midstory reduces understory plant diversity through direction competition via light interception. The general application of this mechanism of degradation is questionable, however, because midstory density, leaf area, and hardwood species composition vary substantially along a soil moisture gradient from mesic to extremely xeric sites. Reanalysis of recently reported data from xeric longleaf pine communities suggests that the development of the forest floor, a less conspicuous change in forest structure, might cause a decline in plant biodiversity when forests remain unburned. We report here a test of the interactions among fire, litter accumulation, forest floor development, and midstory canopy density on understory plant diversity. Structural equation modeling showed that within xeric sites, forest floor development was the primary factor explaining decreased biodiversity. The only effects of midstory development on biodiversity were those mediated through forest floor development. Boundary line analysis of functional guilds of understory plants showed sensitivity to even minor development of the forest floor in the absence of fire. These results challenge the prevailing management paradigm and suggest that within xeric longleaf pine communities, the primary focus of managed fire regime should be directed toward the restoration of forest floor characteristics rather than the introduction of high-intensity fires used to regulate midstory structure.     

A guide to using the internet to monitor and quantify the wildlife trade

The unrivaled growth in e-commerce of animals and plants presents an unprecedented opportunity to monitor wildlife trade to inform conservation, biosecurity, and law enforcement. Using the internet to quantify the scale of the wildlife trade (volume and frequency) is a relatively recent and rapidly developing approach that lacks an accessible framework for locating relevant websites and collecting data. We produced an accessible guide for internet-based wildlife trade surveillance. We detailed a repeatable method involving a systematic internet search, with search engines, to locate relevant websites and content. For data collection, we highlight web-scraping technology as an efficient way to collect data in an automated fashion at regularly timed intervals. Our guide is applicable to the multitude of trade-based contexts because researchers can tailor search keywords for specific taxa or derived products and locations of interest. We provide information for working with the diversity of websites used in wildlife trade. For example, to locate relevant content on social media (e.g., posts or groups), each social media platform should be examined individually via the site's internal search engine. A key advantage of using the internet to study wildlife trade is the relative ease of access to an increasing amount of trade-related data. However, not all wildlife trade occurs online and it may occur on unobservable sections of the internet.     

Research prioritization using hypothesis maps

This work presents a method to aid in the prioritization of research within a scientific domain. The domain is encoded into a directed network in which nodes represent factors in the domain, and directed links between nodes represent known or hypothesized causal relationships between the factors. Each link is associated with a numeric weight that indicates the degree of understanding of that hypothesis. Increased understanding of hypotheses is represented by higher weights on links in the network. Research is prioritized by calculating optimal allocations of limited research resources across all links in the network that maximize the degree of overall knowledge of the research domain. We quantify the level of knowledge of individual nodes (factors) in the map by a network centrality measure that reflects in dependencies between knowledge level of nodes and the knowledge level of their parent nodes in the map. We analyzed a funded research proposal concerning the fate and transport of nanomaterials in the environment to illustrate the method.