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21.
Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test. 相似文献
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Monica Gruezmacher Kristof Van Assche 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2015,58(11):2015-2036
We investigate natural resource governance in three indigenous communities in the Colombian Amazon. We base our analysis on an evolutionary governance model in which governance dimensions emerge as relevant through time. The less accessible of the communities represents earlier steps in governance evolution, while the more physically accessible is more integrated into the western scene. We observe how increased physical accessibility in a community brings in western governance models which hybridize with more traditional ones, influencing the couplings between the social and ecological systems. We zoom in on changing management of three commonly used palm species and illustrate how detailed studies of natural resource management contribute to understanding governance evolution. By comparing governance evolutions we were able to gain insights and improve our understanding on how natural resource management changes in communities transiting into western ways of living. In doing so we recognized points of rigidity and flexibility which might influence the social ecological systems capacity to adapt to changing conditions. 相似文献
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Monica E. Wright Dean B. Atkinson Luke Ziemba Robert Griffin Naruki Hiranuma Sarah Brooks Barry Lefer James Flynn Ryan Perna Bernhard Rappenglück Winston Luke Paul Kelley 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(33):4035-4044
Extensive aerosol optical properties, particle size distributions, and Aerodyne quadrupole aerosol mass spectrometer measurements collected during TRAMP/TexAQS 2006 were examined in light of collocated meteorological and chemical measurements. Much of the evident variability in the observed aerosol-related air quality is due to changing synoptic meteorological situations that direct emissions from various sources to the TRAMP site near the center of the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) metropolitan area. In this study, five distinct long-term periods have been identified. During each of these periods, observed aerosol properties have implications that are of interest to environmental quality management agencies. During three of the periods, long range transport (LRT), both intra-continental and intercontinental, appears to have played an important role in producing the observed aerosol. During late August 2006, southerly winds brought super-micron Saharan dust and sea salt to the HGB area, adding mass to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements, but apparently not affecting secondary particle growth or gas-phase air pollution. A second type of LRT was associated with northerly winds in early September 2006 and with increased ozone and sub-micron particulate matter in the HGB area. Later in the study, LRT of emissions from wildfires appeared to increase the abundance of absorbing aerosols (and carbon monoxide and other chemical tracers) in the HGB area. However, the greatest impacts on Houston PM2.5 air quality are caused by periods with low-wind-speed sea breeze circulation or winds that directly transport pollutants from major industrial areas, i.e., the Houston Ship Channel, into the city center. 相似文献
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Traffic related platinum deposits on, or near to, the roads. Platinum accumulation was studied using the method of standardised culture of grass (Lolium multiflorum) at locations with different traffic exposure in the region of Munich. Grass cultures from 6 locations with high traffic exposure, and 3 reference locations far away from traffic emissions, were analysed in 1992 and 1993. The results show a good indication of the platinum emissions byLolium multiflorum. The platinum concentrations rose with the increasing traffic. They diminished with growing distance from the verge of the road. The highest average platinum concentrations were measured at locations close to highly frequented urban roads, in the range 0.8 to 2.9 μg/kg dm. The average platinum concentration at locations far from emissions was found in the range of 0.17 to 0.51 μg/kg dm in 1992 and 1993. The good correlation between the platinum concentrations in grass cultures and the concentrations of other traffic-related elements, like antimony, chromium and lead, verifies the dependence of platinum accumulation from traffic. 相似文献
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Bergström M 《Journal of Safety Research》2005,36(3):237-240
INTRODUCTION: Measuring the effect of safety and health on production is a difficult value to gauge. METHOD: This article introduces the Potential, which is an instrument for economic analysis that incorporates different changes in conditions. RESULTS: While there are a number of problems associated with methods to determine these calculations, this method is a good indicator of the effects of safety and health and produces more than 300 variables with much less input. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Organizations can use this method effectively to determine how safety and health measure can improve their bottom line. A positive business case is highlighted. 相似文献