Quantifying Florida Bay Habitat Suitability for Fishes and Invertebrates Under Climate Change Scenarios

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.     

Variation with Land Use of Immune Function and Prevalence of Avian Pox in Galapagos Finches

Introduced disease has been implicated in recent wildlife extinctions and population declines worldwide. Both anthropogenic‐induced change and natural environmental features can affect pathogen spread. Furthermore, environmental disturbance can result in changes in stress physiology, nutrition, and social structure, which in turn can suppress immune system function. However, it remains unknown whether landscape variation results in heterogeneity in host resistance to pathogens. Avian pox virus, a pathogen implicated in avian declines and extinctions in Hawaii, was introduced to the Galapagos in the 1890s, and prevalence (total number of current infections) has increased recently in finches. We tested whether prevalence and recovery trends in 7 species of Galapagos finches varied by elevation or human land use. To do so, we used infection data obtained from 545 wild‐caught birds. In addition, we determined whether annual changes in 4 aspects of innate immune function (complement protein activity, natural antibody activity, concentration of PIT54 protein, and heterophil:lymphocyte ratio) varied by elevation or land use. Prevalence and recovery rates did not vary by elevation from 2008 to 2009. Avian pox prevalence and proportion of recovered individuals in undeveloped and urban areas did not change from 2008 to 2009. In agricultural areas, avian pox prevalence increased 8‐fold (from 2% to 17% of 234 individuals sampled) and proportion of recovered individuals increased (11% to 19%) from 2008 to 2009. These results suggest high disease‐related mortality. Variation in immune function across human land‐use types correlated with variation in both increased prevalence and susceptibility, which indicates changes in innate immune function may underlie changes in disease susceptibility. Our results suggest anthropogenic disturbance, in particular agricultural practices, may underlie immunological changes in host species that themselves contribute to pathogen emergence. Variación con el Uso de Suelo de la Función Inmune y la Prevalencia de la Varicela Aviar en Pinzones de las Galápagos     

A socioeconomic and natural vulnerability index for oil spills in an Amazonian harbor: A case study using GIS and remote sensing

The coastal zone of the Brazilian state of Maranhão is an area characterized by a large variety of human activities and services, in particular in the Itaqui-Bacanga port complex (IBC). The IBC is an area prone to oil spills resulting from the processes of transportation, storage, and tank cleaning. The present study aimed to map the different physical environments adjacent to this complex and the socioeconomic profile of the local population that would be most vulnerable to this type of disaster. Vulnerability studies are essential as one of the first step in the development of an integrated coastal zone management. The variables analyzed in this study included geomorphological units, and the income, education, and dependence on fishing of the local population. The estimate of the vulnerability index was based on the relationships between these variables, which were used to generate a vulnerability map using GIS and the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing, showing the areas of highest priority for intervention in the case of oil spills. The analysis of the natural and socioeconomic environments indicated that the areas of highest vulnerability correspond to the mangroves and the Vila Nova and Alto da Esperança neighborhoods, respectively. These neighborhoods have a direct relationship with fishing, and low levels of both income and education. By contrast, the lowest vulnerability was attributed to the coastal plateau and the central Anjo da Guarda neighborhood, which is occupied by residents with relatively high income and education, who do not depend on fishing.     

An Evaluation of the Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance Method for Measuring Diesel Particulate Emissions

Abstract

We determined the usefulness of tapered element oscillating microbalances (TEOMs) for researchers and engineers involved with measuring diesel particulate mass. Two different test facilities were used for generating diesel particulates and comparing the TEOM to the commonly used U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) manual filter method. The EPA method is very labor-intensive and requires long periods of time to complete. The TEOM is an attractive approach because it has the potential to reduce the amount of time and labor required in diesel testing, as well as to provide real-time particulate-mass data that are not obtainable with the EPA method. It was found that the TEOM was a precise and easy-to-operate instrument that could measure the mass concentration (MC) of diesel particulate emissions in real time. Although the TEOM diesel particulate MC measurements were highly correlated with the manual filter measurements, the two techniques were not equivalent because the TEOM consistently reported MC results that were 20–25% lower than those obtained using the manual filter technique. In conclusion, the TEOM can be used to increase test-cell throughput and to measure transient values of diesel par-ticulate emissions at sites performing diesel-engine testing. However, unless EPA is able to certify the TEOM as an equivalent method, it cannot replace the manual filter method for diesel certification work.     

Lightning protection scenarios of communication tower sites; human hazards and equipment damage

This paper provides comprehensive analysis on the lightning protection scenarios in 48 communication and broadcasting towers situated in similar isokeraunic contours in Sri Lanka at 79°–81° East and 5°–10° North. The investigation has been conducted to study the hazardous environment created on the tower and in the neighbourhood in the event of a lightning strike to the tower. The results show that a direct strike to an antenna structure in a metallic tower is rare irrespective of the presence of an air-termination or a down conductor. However, side flashing or arcing to antenna structures is highly possible once the air-termination and/or down conductor is installed and attempts are made to insulate the system from the tower. The outcome also shows that equipotential bonding of the grounding system, a distributed grounding network including a ring conductor and a suitable system of surge protective devices play a much vital role in lightning protection of equipment and safety of people compared to the effects of simply achieving a low grounding resistance. However, in the absence of such integrated, distributed and equipotentialized grounding system, a high value of ground resistance will sharply increase the possibility of accidents and damage. Considering the observations of the investigations into account we have designed a concrete embedded grounding system for tower sites at problematic locations. Finally, the scenarios for safety management at telecommunication tower sites have been discussed.     

Dealing with heterogeneous regression slopes in analysis of covariance: new methodology applied to environmental effects monitoring fish survey data

Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is a powerful statistical method which incorporates one or more covariates into the analysis to reduce error associated with measurement. ANCOVA (modeling response as a function of fish size) is frequently used to analyze environmental effects monitoring (EEM) fish survey data. In approximately 12% of fish survey data sets taken from cycles 1 to 3 of Environment Canada’s EEM database for pulp and paper mills, the standard assumption of parallel regression slopes is not met. For the first three cycles of the EEM program, these data sets were classified as indicating a mill effect, but for the most part were excluded from subsequent analyses aimed at quantifying the effect. We present two different methods for initially dealing with data sets that exhibit heterogeneous slopes so that they can be analyzed using the parallel slope model. The first method identifies data sets where heterogeneous slopes are forced by a few high-influence observations. The second approach identifies data sets where a model with heterogeneous slopes is statistically, but not practically, significant: with a high coefficient of determination for the parallel slope model. These new methodologies are applied to EEM pulp and paper data sets and about 55% of cases with heterogeneous slopes can be described by a parallel slope model. We also discuss a third method that can be used to describe mill effects when regression slopes remain heterogeneous even after applying the above two methods, enabling comparison with a critical effect size. These new methodologies could benefit the EEM program by enabling more data sets to be incorporated into meta-analyses and be used to make more equitable mill monitoring decisions in the future.