Effects of Population Size on Seed Production and Germinability in an Endangered, Fragmented Grassland Plant

Abstract: Fragmentation and isolation of plant populations are thought to affect demographic processes such as seed production and cause reductions in fitness. I followed seed set over a 3-year period in eight populations of the endangered Rutidosis leptorrhynchoides (Asteraceae) that differed in population size from 13 to over 5000 flowering plants. Germinability of the resultant seed was also examined to determine whether small populations had lower fitness than large populations. Seed set was significantly associated with population size in 2 of the 3 years. Small populations (<30 flowering plants) produced significantly fewer seeds per head in 1994 and 1995 than did large populations (500 to over 5000 flowering plants), which did not differ significantly from one another. There was, however, substantial variation within populations. In 1993 seed production did not follow any simple relationship with population size, possibly because environmental stress from low rainfall had an overriding impact. Differences in seed germinability between populations were largely not evident, suggesting that this aspect of fitness has not declined substantially in small populations relative to large populations. This study suggests that nongenetic, demographic factors are of immediate importance to the persistence of small populations of R. leptorrhynchoides because of their potential impacts on seedling recruitment.     

RIVERWARE: A GENERALIZED TOOL FOR COMPLEX RESERVOIR SYSTEM MODELING1

ABSTRACT: Water management agencies seek the next generation of modeling tools for planning and operating river basins. Previous site‐specific models such as U.S. Bureau of Reclamation's (USBR) Colorado River Simulation System and Tennessee Valley Authority's (TVA) Daily Scheduling Model have become obsolete; however, new models are difficult and expensive to develop and maintain. Previous generalized river basin modeling tools are limited in their ability to represent diverse physical system and operating policy details for a wide range of applications. RiverWare(tm), a new generalized river basin modeling tool, provides a construction kit for developing and running detailed, site‐specific models without the need to develop or maintain the supporting software within the water management agency. It includes an extensible library of modeling algorithms, several solvers, and a rich “language” for the expression of operating policy. Its point‐and‐click graphical interface facilitates model construction and execution, and communication of policies, assumptions and results to others. Applications developed and used by the TVA and the USBR demonstrate that a wide range of operational and planning problems on widely varying basins can be solved using this tool.     

Population growth in snow geese: a modeling approach integrating demographic and survey information

There are few analytic tools available to formally integrate information coming from population surveys and demographic studies. The Kalman filter is a procedure that facilitates such integration. Based on a state-space model, we can obtain a likelihood function for the survey data using a Kalman filter, which we may then combine with a likelihood for the demographic data. In this paper, we used this combined approach to analyze the population dynamics of a hunted species, the Greater Snow Goose (Chen caerulescens atlantica), and to examine the extent to which it can improve previous demographic population models. The state equation of the state-space model was a matrix population model with fecundity and regression parameters relating adult survival and harvest rate estimated in a previous capture-recapture study. The observation equation combined the output from this model with estimates from an annual spring photographic survey of the population. The maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters from the combined analysis differed little from the values of the original capture-recapture analysis, though their precision improved. The model output was found to be insensitive to a wide range of coefficient of variation (CV) in fecundity parameters. We found a close match between the surveyed and smoothed population size estimates generated by the Kalman filter over an 18-year period, and the estimated CV of the survey (0.078-0.150) was quite compatible with its assumed value (approximately 0.10). When we used the updated parameter values to predict future population size, the model underestimated the surveyed population size by 18% over a three-year period. However, this could be explained by a concurrent change in the survey method. We conclude that the Kalman filter is a promising approach to forecast population change because it incorporates survey information in a formal way compared with ad hoc approaches that either neglect this information or require some parameter or model tuning.     

Trade-offs associated with dietary specialization in corallivorous butterflyfishes (Chaetodontidae: <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chaetodon</Emphasis>)

Increasing dietary specialization is an inherently risky strategy because it increases a species’ vulnerability to resource depletion. However, risks associated with dietary specialization may be offset by increased performance when feeding on preferred prey. Although rarely demonstrated, highly specialized species are expected to outperform generalists when feeding on their preferred prey, whereas generalists are predicted to have more similar performance across a range of different prey. To test this theory, we compared the growth rates of two obligate coral-feeding butterflyfishes (Chaetodon trifascialis and Chaetodon plebeius) maintained on exclusive diets of preferred vs nonpreferred prey. In the field, C. trifascialis was the most specialized species, feeding almost exclusively on just one coral species, Acropora hyacinthus. C. plebeius meanwhile, was much less specialized, but fed predominantly on Pocillopora damicornis. During growth experiments, C. trifascialis grew fastest when feeding on A. hyacinthus and did not grow at all when feeding on less preferred prey (P. damicornis and Porites cylindrica). C. plebeius performed equally well on both A. hyacinthus and P. damicornis (its preferred prey), but performed poorly when feeding on P. cylindrica. Both butterflyfishes select coral species that maximize juvenile growth, but contrary to expectations, the more specialized species (C. trifascialis) did not outperform the generalist species (C. plebeius) when both consumed their preferred prey. Increased dietary specialization, therefore, appears to be a questionable strategy, as there was no evidence of any increased benefits to offset increases in susceptibility to disturbance.     

Maryland Biological Stream Survey: Development of a Fish Index of Biotic Integrity

As a step towards determining the extent of degradation in non-tidal streams, a multi-metric Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) based on fish assemblages was developed for the Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS). The MBSS is a probability-based statewide sampling program designed to assess the status of biological resources and to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic activities. We used data from 419 MBSS sites sampled in 1994-95 to develop the IBI. Two distinct geographic strata, corresponding with ecoregional and physiographic boundaries, were identified via cluster analysis and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) as supporting distinctly different species groups. Reference conditions were based on minimally degraded sites. We quantitatively evaluated the ability of various attributes of the fish assemblage (candidate metrics) to discriminate between these reference sites and sites known to be degraded, using statistical tests and classification efficiency. Provisional formulations of the IBI were selected for each region based on high classification efficiency and broad representation of fish assemblage attributes. Fish IBI scores for 1995 MBSS sites spanned a wide range of biological conditions, from good to very poor. Over all six basins sampled in 1995, half of the stream miles fell into the range of good to fair. Roughly 25% of stream miles showed some degradation. The IBI will be used in conjunction with physical and chemical data to answer critical questions about the health of Maryland streams and the relative impacts of human-induced stresses on the state's aquatic systems.     

Trace element concentrations in feathers of seven petrels (Pterodroma spp.)

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Gadfly petrels (Pterodroma spp.) are one of the most threatened and poorly studied seabird groups, and as marine predators, are exposed to...     

Bringing analysis of gender and social–ecological resilience together in small-scale fisheries research: Challenges and opportunities

The demand for gender analysis is now increasingly orthodox in natural resource programming, including that for small-scale fisheries. Whilst the analysis of social–ecological resilience has made valuable contributions to integrating social dimensions into research and policy-making on natural resource management, it has so far demonstrated limited success in effectively integrating considerations of gender equity. This paper reviews the challenges in, and opportunities for, bringing a gender analysis together with social–ecological resilience analysis in the context of small-scale fisheries research in developing countries. We conclude that rather than searching for a single unifying framework for gender and resilience analysis, it will be more effective to pursue a plural solution in which closer engagement is fostered between analysis of gender and social-ecological resilience whilst preserving the strengths of each approach. This approach can make an important contribution to developing a better evidence base for small-scale fisheries management and policy.     

Particulate matter pollution in the coal-producing regions of the Appalachian Mountains: Integrated ground-based measurements and satellite analysis

This study integrates the relationship between measured surface concentrations of particulate matter 10 μm or less in diameter (PM₁₀), satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD), and meteorology in Roda, Virginia, during 2008. A multiple regression model was developed to predict the concentrations of particles 2.5 μm or less in diameter (PM_2.5) at an additional location in the Appalachia region, Bristol, TN. The model was developed by combining AOD retrievals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the EOS Terra and Aqua Satellites with the surface meteorological observations. The multiple regression model predicted PM_2.5 (r² = 0.62), and the two-variable (AOD-PM_2.5) model predicted PM_2.5 (r² = 0.4). The developed model was validated using particulate matter recordings and meteorology observations from another location in the Appalachia region, Hazard, Kentucky. The model was extrapolated to the Roda, VA, sampling site to predict PM_2.5 mass concentrations. We used 10 km x 10 km resolution MODIS 550 nm AOD to predict ground level PM_2.5. For the relevant period in 2008, in Roda, VA, the predicted PM_2.5 mass concentration is 9.11 ± 5.16 μg m^-3 (mean ± 1SD).

Implications: This is the first study that couples ground-based Particulate Matter measurements with satellite retrievals to predict surface air pollution at Roda, Virginia. Roda is representative of the Appalachian communities that are commonly located in narrow valleys, or “hollows,” where homes are placed directly along the roads in a region of active mountaintop mining operations. Our study suggests that proximity to heavy coal truck traffic subjects these communities to chronic exposure to coal dust and leads us to conclude that there is an urgent need for new regulations to address the primary sources of this particulate matter.     

Sulfur Control In Coal Fired Power Plants: A Probabilistic Approach to Policy Analysis

The optimum level of sulfur pollution control for a coal fired power plant is the point where the sum of societal costs, due to pollution, and control costs is minimized. This basic microeconomic concept has been of limited practical value due to considerable uncertainty in estimating both costs. A probabilistic approach is used to characterize these uncertainties quantitatively for a hypothetical 1000 Mw_e plant located near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Only mortality effects within a distance of 80 km of the plant have been included. The results allow explicit consideration of attitude toward risk and appropriate level of investment to prevent deaths. Limitations of the findings are discussed. Implications are described for policy based on alternative sets of values and assumptions.     

Windsor, Ontario exposure assessment study: design and methods validation of personal, indoor, and outdoor air pollution monitoring

The Windsor, Ontario Exposure Assessment Study evaluated the contribution of ambient air pollutants to personal and indoor exposures of adults and asthmatic children living in Windsor, Ontario, Canada. In addition, the role of personal, indoor, and outdoor air pollution exposures upon asthmatic children's respiratory health was assessed. Several active and passive sampling methods were applied, or adapted, for personal, indoor, and outdoor residential monitoring of nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, particulate matter (PM; PM < or = 2.5 microm [PM2.5] and < or = 10 microm [PM10] in aerodynamic diameter), elemental carbon, ultrafine particles, ozone, air exchange rates, allergens in settled dust, and particulate-associated metals. Participants completed five consecutive days of monitoring during the winter and summer of 2005 and 2006. During 2006, in addition to undertaking the air pollution measurements, asthmatic children completed respiratory health measurements (including peak flow meter tests and exhaled breath condensate) and tracked respiratory symptoms in a diary. Extensive quality assurance and quality control steps were implemented, including the collocation of instruments at the National Air Pollution Surveillance site operated by Environment Canada and at the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality site in Allen Park, Detroit, MI. During field sampling, duplicate and blank samples were also completed and these data are reported. In total, 50 adults and 51 asthmatic children were recruited to participate, resulting in 922 participant days of data. When comparing the methods used in the study with standard reference methods, field blanks were low and bias was acceptable, with most methods being within 20% of reference methods. Duplicates were typically within less than 10% of each other, indicating that study results can be used with confidence. This paper covers study design, recruitment, methodology, time activity diary, surveys, and quality assurance and control results for the different methods used.