Protection of wetlands as a strategy for reducing the spread of avian influenza from migratory waterfowl

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has led to the death or destruction of millions of domesticated and wild birds and caused hundreds of human deaths worldwide. As with other HPAIs, H5N1 outbreaks among poultry have generally been caused by contact with infected migratory waterfowl at the interface of wildlands and human-dominated landscapes. Using a case–control epidemiological approach, we analyzed the relation between habitat protection and H5N1 outbreaks in China from 2004 to 2017. We found that while proximity to unprotected waterfowl habitats and rice paddy generally increased outbreak risk, proximity to the most highly protected habitats (e.g., Ramsar-designated lakes and wetlands) had the opposite effect. Protection likely involves two mechanisms: the separation of wild waterfowl and poultry populations and the diversion of wild waterfowl from human-dominated landscapes toward protected natural habitats. Wetland protection could therefore be an effective means to control avian influenza while also contributing to avian conservation.     

深圳市公路建设对生态环境的影响、治理及对策

公路建设曾经给深圳的生态环境造成了较为严重的危害 ,主要有 :严重的水土流失及其派生影响 ,对一些具有观赏价值的自然景观产生破坏 ,影响了部分区域动植物生存环境等。主要对这些环境影响及已进行的治理及其成效进行综述 ,对治理工作的不足及未来对策也进行了探讨。     

Impact changes of climatic extremes on arable farming in the north of the Netherlands

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in multiple ways. Here, we use the northern region of the Netherlands as a case study to explore how risk assessments for climate change impacts on crop production can address multiple vulnerabilities. We present a methodology, which we call agro climate calendar (ACC) that (i) includes potential yield losses, as well as loss of product quality, and (ii) assesses the risks of a variety of climate factors including weather extremes and the emergence and abundance of pests and diseases. Climate factors are defined for two time slices: 1990 (1976–2005) and 2040 (2026–2055); the frequency of occurrence of the factors is compared for the two periods, and the resulting frequency shifts are presented in a crop calendar on a monthly basis. This yields an indication of the magnitude and direction of changes in climatic conditions that can lead to damage by extreme events and pests and diseases. We present results for the two most important crops in the region, seed potato, and winter wheat. The results provide a good overview of risks from climate factors, and the most important threats and opportunities are identified. This semi-quantitative approach is firmly rooted in farm management, which is the level where operational and strategic decisions are made. Thus, the approach is well suited to assist local stakeholders such as farmers and policy makers to explore farm-level adaptation. This work is complementary to previous modeling work that focused mainly on the relation between mean climate change factors (i.e., temperature) and crop yield.     

Climate change risks in Sahelian Africa

Analyses of Sahel regional and country-specific rainfall and temperature time series derived from a fixed subset of stations show the well-documented large-scale decreasing trend in rainfall that occurred between 1970 and 2000 and also, an increasing trend in summertime maximum and wintertime minimum temperatures. The evolution of summertime mean maximum temperature is almost opposite to that of rainfall, and a significant correlation is observed between the evolution of this quantity and millet yields, in comparison with correlation with summertime rainfall. It appears that quantifying future vulnerability of the Sahel zone to climate change is rather difficult because climate models have not in general shown yet a satisfactory reproduction of the observed climate variability of this area.     

中国酸雨控制政策初步评估研究

采用环境政策评估的一般模式,通过构建包括评估目标、评估标准等在内的评估框架,对我国现有酸雨控制政策进行了初步的评估。结果表明,中国酸雨控制政策体系已经初步建立,不仅促进了燃煤火电厂脱硫工程的建设,为SO2排放控制奠定了工程基础,还使单位燃煤量SO2排放量得到降低。但并没有实现排放总量的绝对降低,酸沉降范围仍有扩大趋势,发生重酸雨城市的数量也在增加。主要原因是:现有的地方政府负责的管理体制设计缺乏酸雨外部性的考虑,管理成本大;燃煤火电厂脱硫装置的运行和SO2排放量的削减缺乏有效的政策手段来保证,减排成本较高。现行的政策手段中,事前控制手段由于不具有过程控制的功能,未能有效遏制SO2的排放;总量控制和排放标准的政策对象没有明确界定,无法实现边际减排;排污收费在地方政府与企业利益高度一致的背景下,刺激减排的效果一般;脱硫电价补贴作为刺激减排的经济制度,并未直接对脱硫量进行补贴,而是对上网脱硫电量实行补贴,补贴对象针对性不强。建议实施以排污许可证制度为核心的排放控制政策体系,并将排放控制政策向过程和源头延伸;同时改革排污收费制度,使其成为规费辅助排污许可证制度的实施;建议由国家环保部直接负责酸雨控制,包括燃煤火电厂的环评审批、排污许可证的发放和实施。     

长江三峡库区极端大雾天气的气候变化特征

为了进一步认识长江三峡库区大雾天气特征,采用线性趋势估计和Molet小波分析方法,研究了库区持续12 h以上和连续3 d以上极端大雾天气气候变化特征,探讨了库区蓄水后大雾天气气候变化的原因。结果表明：三峡库区年平均雾日数呈弱的下降趋势,存在准8、18、32 a的年代际周期振荡。持续12 h以上和连续3 d以上大雾天气有明显增加趋势,分别存在准10、17、32 a和准12、32 a的年代际周期振荡。在蓄水后,库区西段年平均雾日数明显减少、东段略有增加,持续12 h以上大雾年平均日数变化不大,连续3 d以上大雾年平均日数明显减少。库区年平均雾日数的总体减少在很大程度上是受全球气候变暖以及城市化共同影响的结果,没有证据说明三峡库区蓄水对大雾天气有明显影响。     

First-trimester maternal serum human thyroid-stimulating hormone in chromosomally normal and Down syndrome pregnancies

Maternal serum human thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) levels were investigated in chromosomally normal and Down syndrome pregnancies to determine whether TSH can be used as a marker for Down syndrome in the first trimester. Measurements were conducted on stored serum samples collected from 23 Down syndrome pregnancies and 115 unaffected pregnancies before chorionic villus sampling (CVS), between 9 and 11 completed weeks of pregnancy. The samples were matched for gestational age, maternal age, maternal weight and duration of storage of the serum sample. Maternal TSH concentration was slightly decreased in Down syndrome pregnancies, with a median of 0.84 multiples of the median (MoM). Maternal serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) concentration was slightly elevated in Down syndrome pregnancies, with a median of 1.03 MoM. Both differences were not significant applying matched rank analysis (p=0.50 for TSH and p=0.43 for hCG). The association between TSH and hCG in unaffected pregnancies was also measured. The Spearman correlation coefficient between TSH and hCG was −0.21 which was statistically significant (p=0.02, 95% confidence interval −0.38 to −0.03). However, it was concluded that TSH is not a useful marker for distinguishing Down syndrome-affected pregnancies from normal pregnancies in the first trimester. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence for enhanced dissipation of chlorpyrifos in an agricultural soil inoculated with Serratia rubidaea strain ABS 10

The insecticide ¹⁴C-chlorpyrifos was found mineralized in a Tunisian soil with repeated exposure to it. From this soil, a bacterial strain was isolated that was able to grow in a minimal salt medium (MSM) supplemented with 25 mg L^?1 of chlorpyrifos. It was characterized as Serratia rubidaea strain ABS 10 using morphological and biochemical analyses, as well as 16S rRNA sequencing. In a liquid culture, the S. rubidaea strain ABS 10 was able to dissipate chlorpyrifos almost entirely within 48 h of incubation. Although the S. rubidaea strain ABS 10 was able to grow in an MSM supplemented with chlorpyrifos and dissipate it in a liquid culture, it was not able to mineralize ¹⁴C-chlorpyrifos. Therefore, it can be concluded that the dissipation capability of this bacteria might be attributed to its capacity to adsorb CHL. It can also be ascribed to other reasons such as the formation of biogenic non-extractable residues. In both non-sterile and sterile soil inoculated with S. rubidaea strain ABS 10, chlorpyrifos was more rapidly dissipated than in controls with DT₅₀ of 1.38 and 1.05 days, respectively.

     

Long short-term memory neural network and improved particle swarm optimization–based modeling and scenario analysis for municipal solid waste generation in Shanghai,China

Accurate estimations of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation are vital to effective MSW management systems. While various single-point estimation approaches have been developed, the non-linearity and multiple site-specific influencing factors associated with MSW management systems make it challenging to forecast MSW generation quantities precisely. To address these concerns, this study developed a two-stage modeling and scenario analysis procedure for MSW generation and taking Shanghai as a test case demonstrated its viability. In the first stage, nine influencing factors were selected, and a hybrid novel forecasting model based on a long short-term memory neural network and an improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO-LSTM) was proposed for the forecasting of the MSW generation quantities, after which actual Shanghai data from 1980 to 2019 were used to test the performance. In the second stage, the future influencing variable values in different scenarios were predicted using an improved grey model, after which the predicted Shanghai MSW generation quantities from 2025 to 2035 were evaluated under various scenarios. It was found that (1) the proposed IPSO-LSTM had higher accuracy than the benchmark models; (2) the MSW generation quantities are expected to respectively increase to 9.971, 9.684, and 9.090 million tons by 2025 and 11.402, 11.285, and 10.240 by 2035 under the low, benchmark, and high scenarios; and (3) the MSW generation differences between the high and medium scenarios were decreasing.