The value of disappearing beaches: A hedonic pricing model with endogenous beach width

Beach nourishment is a policy used to rebuild eroding beaches with sand dredged from other locations. Previous studies indicate that beach width positively affects coastal property values, but these studies ignore the dynamic features of beaches and the feedback that nourishment has on shoreline retreat. We correct for the resulting attenuation and endogeneity bias in a hedonic property value model by instrumenting for beach width using spatially varying coastal geological features. We find that the beach width coefficient is nearly five times larger than the OLS estimate, suggesting that beach width is a much larger portion of property value than previously thought. We use the empirical results to parameterize a dynamic optimization model of beach nourishment decisions and show that the predicted interval between nourishment projects is closer to what we observe in the data when we use the estimate from the instrumental variables model rather than OLS. As coastal communities adapt to climate change, we find that the long-term net value of coastal residential property can fall by as much as 52% when erosion rate triples and cost of nourishment sand quadruples.     

Anticipation and tracking of pulsed resources drive population dynamics in eastern chipmunks

Pulsed systems are characterized by boom and bust cycles of resource production that are expected to cascade through multiple trophic levels. Many of the consumers within pulsed resource systems have specific adaptations to cope with these cycles that may serve to either amplify or dampen their community-wide consequences. We monitored a seed predator, the eastern chipmunk (Tamias striatus), in an American beech (Fagus grandifolia) dominated forest, and used capture-mark-recapture analyses to estimate chipmunk vital rates and relate them to interannual variation in beech seed production. The summer activity and reproduction of adults anticipated autumn beech production, with high activity and intense reproduction occurring in summers prior to beech masts. Chipmunks also reproduced every spring following a beech mast. However, adult survival was independent of beech production. In contrast, juvenile survival was lower in years of mast failure than in years of mast production, but their activity was consistently high and independent of beech production. Population growth was strongly affected by the number of juveniles and therefore by beech seed production, which explains nearly 70% of variation in population growth. Our results suggest that a combination of resource-dependent reproduction and variable activity levels associated with anticipation and response to resource pulses allows consumers to buffer potential deleterious effects of low food abundance on their survival.     

Death awareness and organizational behavior

This Incubator introduces scholars to death awareness research. We explicate how mortality salience can be studied in conjunction with workplace behavior. Using the Terror Management Theory (TMT) framework, we explore morality salience in combination with several workplace phenomena, including aggression, discrimination, and punishment; and, several ideas for future research are suggested. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation and Evaluation of Control Strategies for Ozone Reduction in a Complex Terrain in Southwestern Spain

During the central months of the year, southwestern Spain is under strong insolation and weak synoptic forcing, promoting the development of sea breezes and mountain-induced winds and creating recirculations of pollutants. The complex topography of the Southwestern Iberia Peninsula induces the formation of vertical layers, into which the pollutants are injected and subjected to long-distance transport and compensatory subsidence. The characteristics of these highly complex flows have important effects on the pollutant dispersion. Air pollution studies in very complex terrains require high-resolution modelling for resolving the flow dynamics. This paper shows the results obtained from using the MM5-CAMx multiscale-nested air quality model to relate the sensitivity regimes for ozone, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds in an area of high geographical complexity. The article assesses the impact on the hourly and eight-hourly maximum daily ozone concentrations of four reduction strategies during two ozone pollution episodes. This analysis of the ozone response has led to a preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness of the most common control strategies: traffic, industry, mixed traffic and industry, and closure of some of the largest industries (oil and petrochemical refineries). Photochemical indicators show that ozone chemistry in southwestern Spain is strongly sensitive to NO _x . However, volatile organic compound-sensitive points are found in areas with anthropogenic influence (highways, cities and industrial parks). Our results indicate that reductions in road traffic lead to ozone reductions over large areas, whereas reductions in industrial emissions, despite sometimes showing greater decreases in the maximum hourly and eight-hourly ground-level ozone levels, lead to ozone reductions in a local area only. In the control study case, with the oil refinery and the petrochemical plants closed, decreases in ozone hourly concentrations are up to 40% higher than in the other emission control scenarios studied. This analysis provides an assessment of the effectiveness of different policies for controlling precursor emissions by comparing the modelled results for different scenarios.     

Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India

Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.     

Maintenance-related major accidents: Classification of causes and case study

The potential for major accidents is inherent in most industries that handle or store hazardous substances, for e.g. the hydrocarbon and chemical process industries. Several major accidents have been experienced over the past three decades. Flixborough Disaster (1974), Seveso Disaster (1976), Alexander Kielland Disaster (1980), Bhopal Gas Tragedy (1984), Sandoz Chemical Spill (1986), Piper Alpha Disaster (1988), Philips 66 Disaster (1989), Esso Longford Gas Explosion (1998), Texas City Refinery Explosion (2005), and most recently the Macondo Blowout (2010) are a few examples of accidents with devastating consequences.Causes are being exposed over time, but in recent years maintenance influence tends to be given less attention. However, given that some major accidents are maintenance-related, we intend to concentrate on classifying them to give a better insight into the underlying and contributing causes.High degree of technological and organizational complexity are attributes of these industries, and in order to control the risk, it is common to deploy multiple and independent safety barriers whose integrity cannot be maintained without adequate level of maintenance. However, maintenance may have a negative effect on barrier performance if the execution is incorrect, insufficient, delayed, or excessive. Maintenance can also be the triggering event.The objectives of this article are: (1) To investigate how maintenance impacts the occurrence of major accidents, and (2) To develop classification schemes for causes of maintenance-related major accidents.The paper builds primarily on model-based and empirical approaches, the latter being applied to reports on accident investigation and analysis. Based on this, the Work and Accident Process (WAP) classification scheme was proposed in the paper.     

Valuing nature-based recreation in public natural areas of the Apalachicola River region, Florida

As more people visit natural areas for tourism and recreation purposes, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the value they place on these natural resources. Specifically, tourists to Florida have been increasingly interested in visiting natural areas, forests, parks, and preserves-highlighting the importance of this new and growing phenomenon. We analyze visitors' demand for nature-based recreation in the Apalachicola River region of Florida using the travel cost method. The results from a count data regression model reveal that on average visitors would pay 74.18 dollars per visit-day for nature-based recreation resulting in a total economic value of 484.56 million dollars attributable to nature-based recreation in the Apalachicola River region. Results of this study provide useful information for natural resources management in the region and a rationale to preserve Florida's unique ecosystems.     

Climate change and sustainable development: realizing the opportunity

Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions.     

A land use regression model for predicting ambient concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada

This paper reports on the development of a land use regression (LUR) model for predicting the intraurban variation of traffic-related air pollution in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, an industrial city at the western end of Lake Ontario. Although land use regression has been increasingly used to characterize exposure gradients within cities, research to date has yet to test whether this method can produce reliable estimates in an industrialized location. Ambient concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were measured for a 2-week period in October 2002 at > 100 locations across the city and subsequently at 30 of these locations in May 2004 to assess seasonal effects. Predictor variables were derived for land use types, transportation, demography, and physical geography using geographic information systems. The LUR model explained 76% of the variation in NO2. Traffic density, proximity to a highway, and industrial land use were all positively correlated with NO2 concentrations, whereas open land use and distance from the lake were negatively correlated with NO2. Locations downwind of a major highway resulted in higher NO2 levels. Cross-validation of the results confirmed model stability over different seasons. Our findings demonstrate that land use regression can effectively predict NO2 variation at the intraurban scale in an industrial setting. Models predicting exposure within smaller areas may lead to improved detection of health effects in epidemiologic studies.