Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low‐Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams

In the northern hemisphere, summer low flows are a key attribute defining both quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. I developed one set of models for New England streams/rivers predicting July/August median flows averaged across 1985–2015 as a function of weather, slope, % imperviousness, watershed storage, glacial geology, and soils. These models performed better than most United States Geological Survey models for summer flows developed at a statewide scale. I developed a second set of models predicting interannual differences in summer flows as a function of differences in air temperature, precipitation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and lagged NAO. Use of difference equations eliminated the need for transformations and accounted for serial autocorrelations at lag 1. The models were used in sequence to estimate time series for monthly low flows and for two derived flow metrics (tenth percentile [Q10] and minimum 3‐in‐5 year average flows). The first metric is commonly used in assessing risk to low‐flow conditions over time, while the second has been correlated with increased probability of localized extinctions for brook trout. The flow metrics showed increasing trends across most of New England for 1985–2015. However, application of summer flow models with average and extreme climate projections to the Taunton River, Massachusetts, a sensitive watershed undergoing rapid development, projected that low‐flow metrics will decrease over the next 50 years.     

Interrupting the balance: reconsidering the complexities of conflict in South Sudan

By the start of 2014, violent conflict had erupted across much of South Sudan following initial violence in Juba on 15 December 2013. The speed with which the fighting has spread raises questions regarding the impact of national‐level politics on violence at the local level. This article develops a framework in which violent conflict can be comprehended as a response to the interruption of the negotiation of the balance of power between groups; the negotiation is interrupted when that balance tips in favour of one group, such as through changes in the national political market or government reforms. The article provides two cases studies of attempts to strengthen the state that inadvertently interrupted local power relations between groups. In response, the groups engaged in violent conflict to reinstate a balance of power. Both examples involve conflict among Dinka groups from 2005 to 2008.     

Leaf morphoanatomy of species tolerant to excess iron and evaluation of their phytoextraction potential

Setaria parviflora (Poir.) Kerguélen and Paspalum urvillei Steudel are grasses that grow naturally in a soil with high iron contents. This study aimed to characterize morphoanatomically and histochemically the iron phytotoxicity on leaves and evaluate the phytoextraction potential of these grasses. Saplings were cultivated in hydroponic solution with and without excess Fe-EDTA. Regarding measurements taken on leaves, reduction was observed among treatments of Fe-EDTA on height values of abaxial epidermis and bundle sheath in both species. As for iron histolocalization, stronger reaction was observed in leaves of S. parviflora, in comparison with P. urvillei. Anatomical damage, such as protoplast retraction, irregular xylem, changes in cell volume, and cell collapse, and visual symptoms, like leaf bronzing, chlorosis, and necrosis, were similar in both species when exposed to excess iron; however, P. urvillei showed more severe damage. This species accumulated more iron in shoots than S. parviflora and therefore is more favorable for use in phytoextraction. The root system of both species accumulated higher iron concentrations in relation to shoots.     

Extraction of Mercury from Groundwater Using Immobilized Algae

Bio-Recovery Systems, Inc. conducted a project under the Emerging Technology portion of the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPAs) Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) Program to evaluate the ability of immobilized algae to adsorb mercury from contaminated groundwater in laboratory studies and pilot-scale field tests. Algal biomass was incorporated in a permeable polymeric matrix. The product, AlgaSORB, packed into adsorption columns, exhibited excellent flow characteristics, and functioned as a “biological” ion exchange resin. A sequence of eleven laboratory tests demonstrated the ability of this product to adsorb mercury from groundwater that contained high levels of total dissolved solids and hard water components. However, use of a single AlgaSORB preparation yielded nonrepeatable results with samples collected at different times of the year. The strategy of sequentially extracting the groundwater through two columns containing different preparations of AlgaSORB was developed and proved successful in laboratory and pilot-scale field tests. Field test results indicate that AlgaSORB could be economically competitive with ion exchange resins for removal of mercury, with the advantage that hardness and other dissolved solids do not appear to compete with heavy metals for binding capacity.     

Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering: A Review for Developing a Science Plan

Geoengineering methods are intended to reduce climate change, which is already having demonstrable effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in some regions. Two types of geoengineering activities that have been proposed are: carbon dioxide (CO(2)) removal (CDR), which removes CO(2) from the atmosphere, and solar radiation management (SRM, or sunlight reflection methods), which reflects a small percentage of sunlight back into space to offset warming from greenhouse gases (GHGs). Current research suggests that SRM or CDR might diminish the impacts of climate change on ecosystems by reducing changes in temperature and precipitation. However, sudden cessation of SRM would exacerbate the climate effects on ecosystems, and some CDR might interfere with oceanic and terrestrial ecosystem processes. The many risks and uncertainties associated with these new kinds of purposeful perturbations to the Earth system are not well understood and require cautious and comprehensive research.     

The 1970 Bhola cyclone,nationalist politics,and the subsistence crisis contract in Bangladesh

The devastating Bhola cyclone in November 1970 is credited with having triggered the political events that led to the division of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. A callous response to the disaster by the Pakistani regime resulted in a landslide electoral victory for Bengali nationalists, followed by a bitter and bloody civil war. Yet, despite its political momentousness, the Bhola cyclone has been the subject of little political analysis. This paper examines the events, arguing that its extraordinary political significance put disaster management on the nationalist agenda; the famine of 1974 confirmed its centrality, producing a social contract to protect the population against disasters and subsistence crises on which the country's acclaimed resilience to the effects of climate change rests. The Bhola cyclone also drew international attention to this neglected, little‐known region, and in general can be seen as foundational for the subsequent developmental achievements of Bangladesh.