Application of multiple-population viability analysis to evaluate species recovery alternatives

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful conservation tool, but it remains impractical for many species, particularly species with multiple, broadly distributed populations for which collecting suitable data can be challenging. A recently developed method of multiple-population viability analysis (MPVA), however, addresses many limitations of traditional PVA. We built on previous development of MPVA for Lahontan cutthroat trout (LCT) (Oncorhynchus clarkii henshawi), a species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, that is distributed broadly across habitat fragments in the Great Basin (U.S.A.). We simulated potential management scenarios and assessed their effects on population sizes and extinction risks in 211 streams, where LCT exist or may be reintroduced. Conservation populations (those managed for recovery) tended to have lower extinction risks than nonconservation populations (mean = 19.8% vs. 52.7%), but not always. Active management or reprioritization may be warranted in some cases. Eliminating non-native trout had a strong positive effect on overall carrying capacities for LCT populations but often did not translate into lower extinction risks unless simulations also reduced associated stochasticity (to the mean for populations without non-native trout). Sixty fish or 5–10 fish/km was the minimum reintroduction number and density, respectively, that provided near-maximum reintroduction success. This modeling framework provided crucial insights and empirical justification for conservation planning and specific adaptive management actions for this threatened species. More broadly, MPVA is applicable to a wide range of species exhibiting geographic rarity and limited availability of abundance data and greatly extends the potential use of empirical PVA for conservation assessment and planning.     

Spatial structure of internal Poincaré waves in Lake Michigan

In this paper we examine the characteristics of near-inertial internal Poincaré waves in Lake Michigan (USA) as discerned from field experiments and hydrodynamic simulations. The focus is on the determination of the lateral and vertical structure of the waves. Observations of near-inertial internal wave properties are presented from two field experiments in southern Lake Michigan conducted during the years 2009 and 2010 at Michigan City (IN, USA) and Muskegon (MI, USA), respectively. Spectra of thermocline displacements and baroclinic velocities show that kinetic and potential baroclinic energy is dominated by near-inertial internal Poincaré waves. Vertical structure discerned from empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that this energy is predominantly vertical mode 1. Idealized hydrodynamic simulations using stratifications from early summer (June), mid-summer (July) and fall (September) identify the basin-scale internal Poincaré wave structure as a combination of single- and two-basin cells, similar to those identified in Lake Erie by Schwab, with near-surface velocities largest in the center of the northern and southern basins. Near-inertial bottom kinetic energy is seen to have roughly constant magnitude over large swathes across the basin, with higher magnitude in the shallower areas like the Mid-lake Plateau, as compared with the deep northern and southern basins. The near-bottom near-inertial kinetic energy when mapped appears similar to the bottom topography map. The wave-induced vertical shear across thermocline is concentrated along the longitudinal axis of the lake basin, and both near-bottom velocities and thermocline shear are reasonably explained by a simple conceptual model of the expected transverse variability.     

Using perceptions as evidence to improve conservation and environmental management

The conservation community is increasingly focusing on the monitoring and evaluation of management, governance, ecological, and social considerations as part of a broader move toward adaptive management and evidence‐based conservation. Evidence is any information that can be used to come to a conclusion and support a judgment or, in this case, to make decisions that will improve conservation policies, actions, and outcomes. Perceptions are one type of information that is often dismissed as anecdotal by those arguing for evidence‐based conservation. In this paper, I clarify the contributions of research on perceptions of conservation to improving adaptive and evidence‐based conservation. Studies of the perceptions of local people can provide important insights into observations, understandings and interpretations of the social impacts, and ecological outcomes of conservation; the legitimacy of conservation governance; and the social acceptability of environmental management. Perceptions of these factors contribute to positive or negative local evaluations of conservation initiatives. It is positive perceptions, not just objective scientific evidence of effectiveness, that ultimately ensure the support of local constituents thus enabling the long‐term success of conservation. Research on perceptions can inform courses of action to improve conservation and governance at scales ranging from individual initiatives to national and international policies. Better incorporation of evidence from across the social and natural sciences and integration of a plurality of methods into monitoring and evaluation will provide a more complete picture on which to base conservation decisions and environmental management.     

The influence of satellite populations of emerald ash borer on projected economic costs in U.S. communities, 2010-2020

The invasion spread of the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is characterized by the formation of satellite populations that expand and coalesce with the continuously invading population front. As of January 2010, satellite infestations have been detected in 13 states and two Canadian provinces. Understanding how newly established satellite populations may affect economic costs can help program managers to justify and design prevention and control strategies. We estimate the economic costs caused by EAB for the 10-yr period from 2010 to 2020 for scenarios of fewer EAB satellite populations than those found from 2005 to 2010 and slower expansion of satellite populations found in 2009. We measure the projected discounted cost of treatment, removal, and replacement of ash trees (Fraxinus spp.) growing in managed landscapes in U.S. communities. Estimated costs for the base scenario with the full complement of satellites in 2005-2010 and no program to mitigate spread is $12.5 billion. Fewer EAB satellites from 2005 to 2010 delay economic costs of $1.0 to 7.4 billion. Slower expansion of 2009 satellite populations delays economic costs of $0.1 to 0.7 billion. Satellite populations that are both distant from the core EAB infestation and close to large urban areas caused more economic costs in our simulations than did other satellites. Our estimates of delayed economic costs suggest that spending on activities that prevent establishment of new satellite EAB populations or slow expansion of existing populations can be cost-effective and that continued research on the cost and effectiveness of prevention and control activities is warranted.     

Spatial surplus production modeling of Atlantic tunas and billfish

We formulate and simulation-test a spatial surplus production model that provides a basis with which to undertake multispecies, multi-area, stock assessment. Movement between areas is parameterized using a simple gravity model that includes a "residency" parameter that determines the degree of stock mixing among areas. The model is deliberately simple in order to (1) accommodate nontarget species that typically have fewer available data and (2) minimize computational demand to enable simulation evaluation of spatial management strategies. Using this model, we demonstrate that careful consideration of spatial catch and effort data can provide the basis for simple yet reliable spatial stock assessments. If simple spatial dynamics can be assumed, tagging data are not required to reliably estimate spatial distribution and movement. When applied to eight stocks of Atlantic tuna and billfish, the model tracks regional catch data relatively well by approximating local depletions and exchange among high-abundance areas. We use these results to investigate and discuss the implications of using spatially aggregated stock assessment for fisheries in which the distribution of both the population and fishing vary over time.     

Morphology and distribution of the ampullary electroreceptors in wobbegong sharks: implications for feeding behaviour

The electrosensory capabilities of wobbegong sharks are of particular interest, partly because very little is known about their behavioural ecology and specifically because of their unusual ambush predatory strategy and benthic lifestyle. While several biological functions of electroreception have been proposed, less consideration has been given to the functional significance of interspecific differences in the morphology and topographic distribution of the ampullary organs. The morphology of the ampullary organs was examined in four species of wobbegong shark, and the distribution of electroreceptive pores was mapped in two species. The ampullary systems of wobbegongs are similar in morphology to other marine elasmobranchs. The number of alveoli per ampullae is not significantly different between the four species; however, differences are seen between ampullary cell size in some species. Ampullary pore distribution patterns are relatively unique, with the majority of pores occurring on the dorsal region of the head. Wobbegongs feed primarily on demersal teleost fishes, and as the benthic and well-camouflaged wobbegong remains motionless, these fish could be easily detected by the dorsal pores when swimming within range.     

COMPARISON OF HSPF OUTPUTS USING FTABLES GENERATED WITH FIELD SURVEY AND DIGITAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: The Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) describes discharge from a stream reach based on function tables (FTABLES) that relate stream stage, surface area, volume, and discharge. For this study, five FTABLE scenarios were compared to assess their effect on daily discharge rates predicted using HSPF. Four “field‐based” FTABLE scenarios were developed using detailed cross section surveys collected at predefined intervals along 14 reaches in the study watershed. A fifth “digital‐based” scenario was developed using digital elevation models (DEMs) and Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) Regional Hydraulic Geometry Curves. The Smirnov k‐sample test was used to compare average daily discharge rates simulated with HSPF using the five FTABLE scenarios. No significant difference in simulated stream discharge was found (p = 0.99) between the five FTABLE scenarios. Additional examination of the four field‐based scenarios revealed that the number of cross sections per stream reach used to generate FTABLES had little effect on the resulting stage discharge relationship. These findings suggest that FTABLES generated using digital data are a viable option when simulating stream discharge with HSPF and that if field data are used to generate FTABLES, using fewer cross sections will not adversely affect simulated discharge predictions.     

“Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models” by Dale M. Robertson and David A. Saad2

Richards, R. Peter, Ibrahim Alameddine, J. David Allan, David B. Baker, Nathan S. Bosch, Remegio Confesor, Joseph V. DePinto, David M. Dolan, Jeffrey M. Reutter, and Donald Scavia, 2012. Discussion –“Nutrient Inputs to the Laurentian Great Lakes by Source and Watershed Estimated Using SPARROW Watershed Models” by Dale M. Robertson and David A. Saad. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐10. DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12006 Abstract: Results from the Upper Midwest Major River Basin (MRB3) SPARROW model and underlying Fluxmaster load estimates were compared with detailed data available in the Lake Erie and Ohio River watersheds. Fluxmaster and SPARROW estimates of tributary loads tend to be biased low for total phosphorus and high for total nitrogen. These and other limitations of the application led to an overestimation of the relative contribution of point sources vs. nonpoint sources of phosphorus to eutrophication conditions in Lake Erie, when compared with direct estimates for data‐rich Ohio tributaries. These limitations include the use of a decade‐old reference point (2002), lack of modeling of dissolved phosphorus, lack of inclusion of inputs from the Canadian Lake Erie watersheds and from Lake Huron, and the choice to summarize results for the entire United States Lake Erie watershed, as opposed to the key Western and Central Basin watersheds that drive Lake Erie’s eutrophication processes. Although the MRB3 SPARROW model helps to meet a critical need by modeling unmonitored watersheds and ranking rivers by their estimated relative contributions, we recommend caution in use of the MRB3 SPARRROW model for Lake Erie management, and argue that the management of agricultural nonpoint sources should continue to be the primary focus for the Western and Central Basins of Lake Erie.     

The anuric preterm newborn infant with a normal renal ultrasound: a diagnostic and ethical challenge

Diagnosis and treatment of an anuric premature infant with severe respiratory compromise and a normal renal ultrasound (US), is a difficult task that requires a multidisciplinary approach. A 29-week gestation premature male infant, born after 5 weeks of worsening oligohydramnios, was ventilated for respiratory distress and remained anuric. Intensive clinical investigations and pediatric nephrology consultation that predicted very poor prognosis were followed by progressive renal failure, electrolyte imbalance, respiratory failure, ventricular arrhythmia, and finally cardiac arrest and death on day 5. In view of the predicted poor outcome, and after discussion with the parents, a decision was made not to start peritoneal dialysis (PD), and to offer only palliative therapy, with comfort care alone. Pre and postnatal diagnosis lead, in this case, to an ethical challenge that focuses on the question of futility. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of initial solute distribution on contaminant availability, desorption modeling, and subsurface remediation

Low permeability regions in which solute movement is governed by diffusion reduce the availability of pollutants for remediation and can function as long-term sources of groundwater contamination. The inherent difficulty in understanding mass transfer from these regions of sequestered contamination is further complicated by unknown solute distributions within the low-permeability regions (sequestering regions). When models are calibrated to reproduce temporal histories of solute release from a sequestering region (desorption), the fitted parameter values are used to infer the physical or chemical characteristics of the media; however, the calibrated parameters also reflect the case-specific initial conditions (i.e., the solute distribution within the sequestering region domain at the onset of desorption). This phenomenon is demonstrated using model simulations of solute diffusion from hypothetical solids with characteristics similar to those of the well studied Borden, Ontario aquifer system. Solute release from the solids is simulated using a batch diffusion model under different initial solute distributions within the solids. The results of these model simulations are used to calibrate parameters of a multiple first-order rate desorption model (MRM) to illustrate how the fitted MRM parameters increase or decrease depending on the initial "aging" of the solids. Further numerical simulations are conducted for a one-dimensional flow system under steady-state and variable-rate hydraulic flushing. These simulations show that although aging reduces desorptive mass flux during early stages of flushing, aged sites have greater desorptive mass flux (greater solute availability) than "freshly" contaminated media during the later stages of remediation. Overall, the results demonstrate why the physicochemical meaning of observed desorption rates cannot be accurately deduced without first understanding the initial solute distribution within the media.