Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Biological complexity confounds the separation of point- and non-point sources of human impact on the natural world

Identifying process from pattern is one of the most vexing tasks inenvironmental monitoring. Given information on the distribution of speciesin a pre-defined area, together with comprehensive data on how environmentalconditions in that area have altered through time, is it possible toidentify the factors controlling the species‘ layout? Here, the practicalsignificance of this quandary is demonstrated using a series ofenvironmentally-degraded coastal lagoons in New South Wales. The TuggerahLakes (33°17′S,151°30′E) have over the last 50 yearsexperienced significant changes in species‘ distributions. Seagrasses,macroalgae, phytoplankton, molluscs, prawns and the jellyfish Catostylus mosaicus have altered in spatial pattern. Two human activitieshave been blamed for these perturbations: (1) agricultural clearance ofnative vegetation from the catchment, with associated input of top-soil andnutrients; (2) the commissioning of a coal-fired power station in 1967, withmassive uptake and recirculation of lake water for cooling purposes. In thispaper, spatial changes in macrophyte distributions over the last 50 yearsare reviewed in an attempt to identify the true source(s) of perturbation.The model adopted assumes that the power station is a point source of impactwhile nutrient inputs from the catchment are a diffuse source of impact;changes in species distributions can hypothetically be related back to thesesources according to whether they are localised or widespread. However,after a comprehensive analysis of available macrophyte data derived frominterviews, aerial photography and line transect methodologyies theconclusion is reached that changes in biogeographical pattern around theTuggerah Lakes cannot be attributed to specific anthropogenic pressures atanything beyond the coarsest of levels. This is considered to be the normfor most coastal management situations where natural background variation(’noise‘) and the complexity of linkages between physical, chemical andbiological components confounds the identification of causal relationships.The practical implications of this conclusion are discussed in the contextof litigation and remedial management design. Emphasis is placed on theneed to adopt an adaptive approach to estuarine management, incorporatingexplicit recognition of the limitations of available data, and to developnew techniques for identifying cause-effect relationships.     

Mercury in San Francisco Bay forage fish

In the San Francisco Estuary, management actions including tidal marsh restoration could change fish mercury (Hg) concentrations. From 2005 to 2007, small forage fish were collected and analyzed to identify spatial and interannual variation in biotic methylmercury (MeHg) exposure. The average whole body total Hg concentration was 0.052 μg g⁻¹ (wet-weight) for 457 composite samples representing 13 fish species. MeHg constituted 94% of total Hg. At a given length, Hg concentrations were higher in nearshore mudflat and wetland species (Clevelandia ios, Menidia audens, and Ilypnus gilberti), compared to species that move offshore (e.g., Atherinops affinis and Lepidogobius lepidus). Gut content analysis indicated similar diets between Atherinops affinis and Menidia audens, when sampled at the same locations. Hg concentrations were higher in sites closest to the Guadalupe River, which drains a watershed impacted by historic Hg mining. Results demonstrate that despite differences among years and fish species, nearshore forage fish exhibit consistent Hg spatial gradients.     

In situ experimental study of carbon monoxide generation by gasoline-powered electric generator in an enclosed space

On the basis of currently available data, approximately 97% of generator-related carbon monoxide (CO) fatalities are caused by operating currently marketed, carbureted spark-ignited gasoline-powered generators (not equipped with emission controls) in enclosed spaces. To better understand and to reduce the occurrence of these fatalities, research is needed to quantify CO generation rates, develop and test CO emission control devices, and evaluate CO transport and exposure when operating a generator in an enclosed space. As a first step in these efforts, this paper presents measured CO generation rates from a generator without any emission control devices operating in an enclosed space under real weather conditions. This study expands on previously published information from the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Thirteen separate tests were conducted under different weather conditions at half and full generator load settings. It was found that the CO level in the shed reached a maximum value of 29,300 +/- 580 mg/m3, whereas the oxygen (O2) was depleted to a minimum level of 16.2 +/- 0.02% by volume. For the test conditions of real weather and generator operation, the CO generation and the O2 consumption could be expressed as time-averaged generation/consumption rates. It was also found that the CO generation and O2 consumption rates can be correlated to the O2 levels in the space and the actual load output from the generator. These correlations are shown to agree well with the measurements.     

The influence of sampling protocol on nonmethane hydrocarbon mixing ratios

The effect of sampling protocol on ambient air hydrocarbon mixing ratios was examined on eight sampling days in Los Angeles during 2007 and 2008. Four protocols, which were based on previously published multi-city urban hydrocarbon studies in the United States, were compared and differences were quantified. Whole air canister samples were collected and analyzed for nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs). Differing sampling protocols resulted in large differences in mixing ratios, up to an order of magnitude, for certain NMHCs on the same sampling day. However, the magnitude of the variability between NMHC levels obtained by the four protocols was not consistent throughout the eight sampling days. It was found that sampling time, followed by sampling location, had the greatest influence on the magnitude of the mixing ratio. Ratios between hydrocarbons, often used in urban studies to gain information on emission sources, also varied depending on the protocol used. Comparison of absolute NMHC mixing ratios collected in urban environments using differing sampling protocols should be made with care.     

Spatial variability of carbonaceous aerosols and associated source tracers in two cites in the Midwestern United States

Semi-continuous and 24-h averaged measurements of fine carbonaceous aerosols were made concurrently at three sites within each of two U.S. Midwestern Cities; Detroit, Michigan and Cleveland, Ohio; during two, one-month intensive campaigns conducted in July of 2007 and January & February of 2008. A comparison of 24-h measurements revealed substantial intra-urban variability in carbonaceous aerosols consistent with the influence of local sources, and excesses in both PM_2.5 organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) were identified at individual sites within each city. High time-resolved black carbon (BC) measurements indicated that elemental carbon concentrations were higher at sites adjacent to freeways and busy surface streets, and temporal patterns suggested that excess EC at sites adjacent to freeways was dominated by mobile source emissions while excesses in EC away from traffic corridors was dominated by point/area source emissions. The site-to-site variability in OC concentrations was approximately 7% within the neighborhood scale (0.5–4 km) and between 4 and 27% at the urban scale (4–100 km). In contrast, measurements of organic source tracers, in conjunction with a Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) source-apportionment model, indicated that the spatial variation in the contribution of both mobile and stationary sources to PM_2.5 OC often exceeded the variation in OC mass concentration by a factor of 3 or more. Markers for mobile sources, biomass smoke, natural gas, and coal combustion differed by as much as 60% within the neighborhood scale and by greater than 200% within the urban scale. The observations made during this study suggest that the urban excess of carbonaceous aerosols is much more complex than has been previously reported and that a more rigorous, source-oriented approach should be taken in order to assess the risk associated with exposure to carbonaceous aerosols within the industrialized environments of the Midwestern United States.     

Survey of polyfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) in the atmosphere over the northeast Atlantic Ocean

High volume air sampling in Bermuda, Sable Island (Nova Scotia) and along a cruise track from the Gulf of Mexico to northeast coast of the USA, was carried out to assess air concentrations, particle-gas partitioning and transport of polyfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) in this region. Samples were collected in the summer of 2007. Targeted compounds included the neutral PFCs: fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs), perfluoroalkyl sulfonamides (FOSAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonamido ethanols (FOSEs).Among the FTOHs, 8:2 FTOH was dominant in all samples. Sum of the concentration of FTOHs (gas+particle phase) were higher in Bermuda (mean, 34 pg m^?3) compared to Sable Island (mean, 16 pg m^?3). In cruise samples, sum of FTOHs were highly variable (mean, 81 pg m^?3) reflecting contributions from land-based sources in the northeast USA with concentrations reaching as high as 156 pg m^?3.Among the FOSAs and FOSEs, MeFOSE was dominant in all samples. In Bermuda, levels of MeFOSE were exceptionally high (mean, 62 pg m^?3), exceeding the FTOHs. Sable Island samples also exhibited the dominance of MeFOSE but at a lower concentration (mean, 15 pg m^?3). MeFOSE air concentrations (pg m^?3) in cruise samples ranged from 1.6 to 73 and were not linked to land-based sources. In fact high concentrations of MeFOSE observed in Bermuda were associated with air masses that originated over the Atlantic Ocean.The partitioning to particles for 8:2 FTOH, 10:2 FTOH, MeFOSE and EtFOSE ranged from as high as 15 to 42% for cruise samples to 0.9 to 14% in Bermuda. This study provides key information for validating and developing partitioning and transport models for the PFCs.     

Assessing the Potential for Salmon Recovery via Floodplain Restoration: A Multitrophic Level Comparison of Dredge-Mined to Reference Segments

Pre-restoration studies typically focus on physical habitat, rather than the food-base that supports aquatic species. However, both food and habitat are necessary to support the species that habitat restoration is frequently aimed at recovering. Here we evaluate if and how the productivity of the food-base that supports fish production is impaired in a dredge-mined floodplain within the Yankee Fork Salmon River (YFSR), Idaho (USA); a site where past restoration has occurred and where more has been proposed to help recover anadromous salmonids. Utilizing an ecosystem approach, we found that the dredged segment had comparable terrestrial leaf and invertebrate inputs, aquatic primary producer biomass, and production of aquatic invertebrates relative to five reference floodplains. Thus, the food-base in the dredged segment did not necessarily appear impaired. On the other hand, we observed that off-channel aquatic habitats were frequently important to productivity in reference floodplains, and the connection of these habitats in the dredged segment via previous restoration increased invertebrate productivity by 58%. However, using a simple bioenergetic model, we estimated that the invertebrate food-base was at least 4× larger than present demand for food by fish in dredged and reference segments. In the context of salmon recovery efforts, this observation questions whether additional food-base productivity provided by further habitat restoration would be warranted in the YFSR. Together, our findings highlight the importance of studies that assess the aquatic food-base, and emphasize the need for more robust ecosystem models that evaluate factors potentially limiting fish populations that are the target of restoration.     

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March–June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.