DEMAND SIGNALS FOR URBAN DRAINAGE AND FLOOD CONTROL PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: Planning for urban drainage and flood control requires the use of a rational procedure for setting priorities and allocating funds. An innovative procedure developed by the Los Angeles County Flood Control District is described. It consists of the use of bond election voting results as a surrogate for demand signals representing the public preference for project approval. A regression equation has been developed to relate project characteristics to the likelihood of approval. The procedure is implemented through a “funnel-screen” review procedure which results in a list of reviewed and approved projects.     

Northern New England's threatened soft-shell clam populations

Commercial exhaustion of soft-shell clam,Mya arenaria, had become the fate of many potentially productive clamming areas along the coasts of Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and southern Maine. Investigations of a particularly severe case of soft-shell clam stock depletion in Hampton-Seabrook estuary, New Hampshire, indicated that by 1976 human diggers had removed approximately 87% of the adult clam resource that had existed in 1971. Meanwhile, circumstantial evidence strongly implicated the green crab,Carcinus maenas, as responsible for successive stock recruitment failures, these crabs having consumed most of the young seed clams before they could grow to harvestable size. In 1976, this apparent population imbalance may have been at least partly redressed by a prodigious spatfall, resulting in a massive and widespread reseeding of many flats along the northern New England coast. Spat, or seed clam, densities of up to 1,700 individuals per square foot, over areas of several acres, have been observed. Those clamming areas where aggressive predator control programs had been instituted exhibited the most favorable response in terms of seed clam survival and growth. Evidence also indicated that crowding in thickly seeded portions of the clam flats inhibited shell growth.     

How Science Contributes to Environmental Reporting in British Newspapers: A Case Study of the Reporting of Global Warming and Climate Change

This article examines the role of science in environmental reporting in a number of British newspapers. The findings indicated that in reporting about global warming and climate change, the views of scientists were used to give legitimacy to the content of articles. However, in both the tabloids and broadsheets, there was little evidence provided, in the form of data, to substantiate the claims being made. Furthermore, uncertainties about global warming were not explored effectively. Newspaper reports tended to focus on the potential consequences of global warming, but made little attempt to address the suspected causes that would inevitably involve criticism of highly consumptive lifestyles in the west.     

Sex-biased investment in yolk androgens depends on female quality and laying order in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata)

The Trivers–Willard hypothesis predicts sex biases in parental investment according to parental condition. In addition, parents may need to sex bias their investment if there is an asymmetry between the sexes in offspring fitness under different conditions. For studying maternal differential investment, egg resources are ideal subjects because they are self contained and allocated unequivocally by the female. Recent studies show that yolk androgens can be beneficial to offspring, so here we test for sex-biased investment with maternal investment of yolk testosterone (T) in zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) eggs. From the Trivers–Willard hypothesis, we predicted females to invest more in male eggs in optimum circumstances (e.g. good-condition mother, early-laid egg), and more in female eggs under suboptimal conditions (e.g. poor-condition mother, late-laid egg). This latter prediction is also because in this species there is a female nestling disadvantage in poor conditions and we expected mothers to help compensate for this in female eggs. Indeed, we found more yolk T in female than male eggs. Moreover, in accordance with our predictions, yolk T in male eggs increased with maternal quality relative to female eggs, and decreased with laying order relative to female eggs. This supports our predictions for the different needs and value of male and female offspring in zebra finches. Our results support the idea that females may use yolk androgens as a tool to adaptively manipulate the inequalities between different nestlings.     

Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by resubstitution rates were similar for each lichen species irrespective of the underlying sample survey form. Cross-validation estimates of prediction accuracies were lower than resubstitution accuracies for all species and both design types, and in all cases were closer to the true prediction accuracies based on the EVALUATION data set. We argue that greater emphasis should be placed on calculating and reporting cross-validation accuracy rates rather than simple resubstitution accuracy rates. Evaluation of the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models on the EVALUATION data set shows significantly lower prediction accuracy for the PURPOSIVE tree models relative to the DESIGN models, indicating that non-probabilistic sample surveys may generate models with limited predictive capability. These differences were consistent across all four lichen species, with 11 of the 12 possible species and sample survey type comparisons having significantly lower accuracy rates. Some differences in accuracy were as large as 50%. The classification tree structures also differed considerably both among and within the modelled species, depending on the sample survey form. Overlap in the predictor variables selected by the DESIGN and PURPOSIVE tree models ranged from only 20% to 38%, indicating the classification trees fit the two evaluated survey forms on different sets of predictor variables. The magnitude of these differences in predictor variables throws doubt on ecological interpretation derived from prediction models based on non-probabilistic sample surveys.     

Intra-specific interactions influence egg composition in the lesser black-backed gull (Larus fuscus)

Egg composition, which is under maternal control, can have a profound effect on offspring fitness. The presence of maternal testosterone and carotenoids in avian egg yolk, for example, is thought to enhance the development and competitive ability of the offspring and protect the hatching and growing chick against oxidative stress. Egg quality often differs between females and such variation can be due to differences in maternal social environment, e.g. breeding density. However, this is confounded by the possibility that the quality of individuals breeding in high- or low-density areas may vary. We tested if maternal social environment influences egg composition in a colonial seabird, the lesser black-backed gull (Larus fuscus). To control for confounding effects of female quality, we experimentally manipulated maternal social environment during egg formation. We increased the frequency of intra-specific interactions (i.e. aggressive encounters with conspecifics other than nest mates) in which the females were involved, by placing an elevated platform in their territory. Females that took part in more intra-specific interactions produced a heavier last egg, but the yolk testosterone concentration in eggs laid by control and experimental females did not differ. Differences in yolk testosterone concentration in relation to embryo sex were found neither in the control nor in the experimental group. In contrast, within the control group, eggs with a male embryo contained more carotenoids than eggs with a female embryo. Moreover, experimental females that had been involved in more intra-specific interactions produced female eggs with higher carotenoid levels compared to female eggs of control birds. An experimental increase in carotenoid levels was not observed in eggs containing a male embryo. Our results suggest that intra-specific interactions experienced by female birds during egg formation can influence conditions for embryonic development.Communicated by J. Graves     

Do trans-Pacific air masses deliver PBDEs to coastal British Columbia, Canada?

In order to distinguish between ‘local’ and ‘background’ sources of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in coastal British Columbia (Canada) air, we collected samples from two sites: a remote site on western Vancouver Island, and a near-urban site in the Strait of Georgia. Seasonally-integrated samples of vapor, particulate, and rain were collected continuously during 365 days for analysis of 275 PCB and PBDE congeners. While deposition of the legacy PCBs was similar at both sampling sites, deposition of PBDEs at the remote site amounted to 42% (10.4 mg/ha/year) of that at the near-urban site. Additional research into atmospheric circulation in the NE Pacific Ocean will provide more insight into the transport and fate of priority pollutants in this region, but trans-Pacific delivery of PBDEs to the west coast of North America may underlie in part our observations. For example, approximately 40% of >12,000 ten-day back trajectories calculated for the remote site originated over Asia, compared to only 2% over North America.