Assessing the implications of a 1.5 °C temperature limit for the Jamaican agriculture sector

Despite recent calls to limit future increases in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C, little is known about how different climatic thresholds will impact human society. Future warming trends have significant global food security implications, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) that are recognized as being among the most vulnerable to global climate change. In the case of the Caribbean, any significant change in the region’s climate is likely to have significant adverse effects on the agriculture sector. This paper explores the potential biophysical impacts of a +?1.5 °C warming scenario on several economically important crops grown in the Caribbean island of Jamaica. Also, it explores differences to a >?2.0 °C warming scenario, which is more likely, if the current policy agreements cannot be complied with by the international community. We use the ECOCROP niche model to estimate how predicted changes in future climate could affect the growing conditions of several commonly cultivated crops from both future scenarios. We then discuss some key policy considerations for Jamaica’s agriculture sector, specifically related to the challenges posed to future adaptation pathways amidst growing climate uncertainty and complexity. Our model results show that even an increase less than +?1.5 °C is expected to have an overall negative impact on crop suitability and a general reduction in the range of crops available to Jamaican farmers. This observation is instructive as increases above the +?1.5 °C threshold would likely lead to even more irreversible and potentially catastrophic changes to the sustainability of Jamaica’s agriculture sector. The paper concludes by outlining some key considerations for future action, paying keen attention to the policy relevance of a +?1.5 °C temperature limit. Given little room for optimism with respect to the imminent changes that SIDS will need to confront in the near future, broad-based policy engagement by stakeholders in these geographies is paramount, irrespective of the climate warming scenario.     

Anishnaabe Aki: an indigenous perspective on the global threat of invasive species

Conservation discourses tend to portray invasive species as biological entities temporally connected to colonial timelines, using terms such as “alien”, “colonizing”, “colonial”, and “native”. This focus on a colonial timeline emerges from scientific publications within conservation biology and invasion ecology and is enacted through invasive species management by state and NGO actors. Colonialism is influential for indigenous nations in myriad ways, but in what ways do indigenous understandings of invasive species engage with colonialism? We conducted ethnographic research with indigenous Anishnaabe communities to learn about the ways Anishnaabe people conceptualize invasive species as a phenomenon in the world and were gifted with three primary insights. First, Anishnaabe regard plants, like all beings, as persons that assemble into nations more so than “species”. The arrival of new plant nations is viewed by some Anishnaabe as a natural form of migration. The second insight highlights the importance of actively discovering the purpose of new species, sometimes with the assistance of animal teachers. Lastly, while Anishnaabe describe invasive species as phenomenologically entangled with colonialism, the multiple ways Anishnaabe people think about invasive species provide alternatives to native–non-native binaries that dominate much of the scientific discourse.     

Holocene Dynamics of Vegetation and Ecological Conditions in the Center of the East European Plain

Changes in the vegetation and fire regimes in the central East European Plain during the second half of the Holocene have been reconstructed based on the results of paleobotanical analysis and radiocarbon dating of material from a section of peat deposit in the Mordovia State Nature Reserve. It has been shown that birch–pine forests were widespread in the region between 7000 and 5000 yr BP, with the frequency of fires in that period being high (the fire return interval ranged from 10–20 to 100 years). Beginning from 5000 yr BP and to the early 20th century, broadleaf forests were dominant, with the fire return interval increasing to 300–500 years or longer.     

Carbon Emission from the Surface of Coarse Woody Debris in Korean Pine Forests of Southern Primorye

Carbon dioxide fluxes from the surface of coarse woody debris (CWD) have been measured in Korean pine forests of the southern Sikhote-Alin mountain range. The seasonal dynamics of oxidative conversion of CWD carbon have been evaluated, and average values of the CO₂ emission rate have been determined for CWD fragments of three tree species at different stages of decomposition. The degree of decomposition is an important factor of spatial variation in CO₂ emission rate, and temporal variation in this parameter is adequately described by an exponential function of both CWD temperature and air temperature (R² = 0.65–0.75).     

Spatial Distribution of Heavy Metals and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs in Spruce Forest Soil under Conditions of Regional Pollution

The influence of horizontal structure of spruce forest on the spatial distribution of acid-soluble Zn, Cd, Pb compounds and ¹³⁷Cs in the litter and the humus horizon of soddy podzolic soil has been studied in the territory with the regional background level of industrial fallout. It has been found that the distribution pattern of Zn in the forest litter is a result of biogeochemical processes. The litter in fern–wood sorrel microplots contains increased amounts of Zn and Cd, while the contents of Pb and ¹³⁷Cs are decreased. The distribution patterns of Pb and ¹³⁷Cs in the litter are positively correlated with each other, since both elements are deposited from the atmosphere, and similar mechanisms account for their redistribution in the spruce forest ecosystem.     

Plant Species Richness and Developmental Morphology Stage Influence Mycorrhizal Patagonia Plants Root Colonization

The objectives of this study were to determine the percentage of root colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi at various levels of plant species richness and developmental morphology stages in various perennial grass, and herbaceous and woody dicots species using experimental plots during 2013 and 2014. An auger was used to obtain six replicate root + soil samples at each sampling time on each of the study parameters. Roots were washed free of soil, and percentage AM was determined. The shrub Larrea divaricata was the species which showed the lowest percentage of colonization by AM at the vegetative developmental morphology stage at the monocultures and six-species-mixtures on the experimental plots. Dicots, but not grass, species showed a greater percentage colonization by AM fungi at the greatest (i.e., six-species-mixtures) than lowest (i.e., monocultures) species richness. Although at different degrees of species richness and developmental morphology stages, the perennial grasses Nassella longiglumis and N. tenuis, the herbaceous dicot Atriplex semibaccata, and the shrubs L. divaricata and Schinus fasciculatus showed a greater (p < 0.050) percentage colonization by AM fungi during the second than the first study year. Even though it was species- and sampling time-dependent, percentage colonization by AM fungi increased as species richness also increased most of the times. Our results demonstrated that the plant species differences in percentage colonization by AM fungi in the experimental plots were species richness-, developmental morphology stage-, and sampling-time dependents.     

Psychological Reactance From Reading Basic Facts on Climate Change: The Role of Prior Views and Political Identification

Scholars continue to search for solutions to shift climate change skeptics’ views on climate science and policy. However, research has shown that certain audiences are resistant to change regarding environmental issues. To explore this issue further, we examine the presence of reactance among different audiences in response to simple, yet prominently used, climate change messages. Our results show that emphasizing the scientific consensus of climate change produces reactance, but only among people who question the existence of climate change. Moreover, adding political identification to the model as an additional moderating variable shows the increases in reactance occur among Republicans who question the existence of climate change. Finally, our results show that reactance to climate change messaging may lead to backfiring effects on important outcomes tied to climate change such as risk perceptions, climate change beliefs, and support for mitigation policies.     

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Phytoplankton Community Structure in Lake Erhai,a Chinese Plateau Lake,with Reference to Environmental Factors

Russian Journal of Ecology - Temporal and spatial variations of phytoplankton community in Lake Erhai were investigated from May 2010 to April 2011. A total of 124 species belonging to 8 phyla and...     

长江南京段水、悬浮物及沉积物中多氯有毒有机污染物

对长江南京段水、悬浮物及沉积物中多氯有毒有机污染物进行了分析测定,由色谱/质谱测得的结果表明,水和沉积物中多氯有机污染物的浓度较低,低于欧洲主要河流中的含量水平.悬浮物中这类污染物总含量较高,为56.45～62.35μg/kg,而水中总含量仅为14.61～15.83ng/L.由于长江中污染物被充分稀释与混匀,各采样点的水和悬浮物中该类污染物的浓度变化不大,两相间具有较好的相关性.但各采样点的沉积物中多氯有机污染物含量差异甚大,表明悬浮物的沉积极不均一.沉积物中主要污染物是六氯苯（HCB）和它的代谢产物五氯苯（PeCB）以及滴滴涕（DDT）的代谢产物,其他多氯有机污染物含量很低.