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251.
252.
For many species in seasonal environments, warmer springs associated with anthropogenic climate change are causing phenological changes. Within ecological communities, the timing of interactions among species may be altered if the species experience asymmetrical phenological shifts. We present a model that examines the consequences of changes in the relative timing of herbivory and pollination in a community of herbivores and pollinators that share a host plant. Our model suggests that phenological shifts can alter the abundances of these species and, in some cases, their population dynamics. If historical patterns of interactions in a community change and herbivores become active before pollinators, the community could see a reduction in pollinators and an increase in herbivores, while if pollinators become active before herbivores, there could be a loss of stable coexistence. Previous studies have warned of the potential for climate change to cause large phenological mismatches whereby species that depend on one another become so separated in time that they can no longer interact. Our results suggest that climate change-induced phenological shifts can have a major impact on communities even in cases where complete phenological mismatches do not occur. 相似文献
253.
ABSTRACTDifferent human societies shape landscapes differently. Anthroecology theory explains this long-term differential shaping of landscapes as the product of sociocultural niche construction (SNC): an evolutionary theory coupling social change with ecosystem engineering. The evolutionary mechanisms underpinning this theory cannot be tested without experimental approaches capable of reproducing emergent selection processes acting on the combined suite of cultural, material, and ecological inheritances that determine the adaptive fitness of human individuals, groups, and societies. Agent-based modeling, as a ‘generative social science’ tool, appears ideal for this. Here we propose an agent-based virtual laboratory (ABVL) approach to generating and testing basic hypotheses on SNC as a general mechanism capable of producing the broadly varied anthroecological forms and dynamics of human landscapes from prehistory to present. While major challenges must still be overcome, a prospective modeling framework specification, guiding questions, and illustrative examples demonstrate clear potential for an ABVL to test predictions of anthroecology theory through generative social simulation. 相似文献
254.
Responses by marine species to ocean acidification (OA) have recently been shown to be modulated by external factors including temperature, food supply and salinity. However the role of a fundamental biological parameter relevant to all organisms, that of body size, in governing responses to multiple stressors has been almost entirely overlooked. Recent consensus suggests allometric scaling of metabolism with body size differs between species, the commonly cited ‘universal’ mass scaling exponent (b) of ¾ representing an average of exponents that naturally vary. One model, the Metabolic-Level Boundaries hypothesis, provides a testable prediction: that b will decrease within species under increasing temperature. However, no previous studies have examined how metabolic scaling may be directly affected by OA. We acclimated a wide body-mass range of three common NE Atlantic echinoderms (the sea star Asterias rubens, the brittlestars Ophiothrix fragilis and Amphiura filiformis) to two levels of pCO2 and three temperatures, and metabolic rates were determined using closed-chamber respirometry. The results show that contrary to some models these echinoderm species possess a notable degree of stability in metabolic scaling under different abiotic conditions; the mass scaling exponent (b) varied in value between species, but not within species under different conditions. Additionally, we found no effect of OA on metabolic rates in any species. These data suggest responses to abiotic stressors are not modulated by body size in these species, as reflected in the stability of the metabolic scaling relationship. Such equivalence in response across ontogenetic size ranges has important implications for the stability of ecological food webs. 相似文献
255.
We examine in detail trends from 1966 to 1990 and the fitting of statistical models to assess whether significant changes have taken place in casualty rates since local bus deregulation in 1986.The major source of data is the ‘Stats 19’ collated from police reports by the Department of Transport.The evidence indicates that no significant change in casualty rates for bus and coach occupants (defined as those killed or seriously injured) has occurred since local bus deregulation, although the previous trend of reduction in fatality rates has not been maintained.International comparisons have been made between Britain and a sample of other West European countries. Britain appears to have a higher occupant fatality rate. However, other countries′ data do not always include casualties to bus and coach occupants other than those in which vehicular collisions occur. Better comparative data is available for accidents involving buses and coaches with other road users, notably for Britain and Germany. These suggest that such accidents tend to reflect the national pattern of road casualty rates — for example, Germany has a higher level of collisions between buses and coaches, and other road vehicles, while Britain has a relatively high incidence of casualties involving pedestrians.Differences in accident rates between Britain and other European countries and the extent to which they reflect real differences, as distinct from those due to differences in recording of data, are evaluated, along with policy implications. 相似文献
256.
257.
K. Jack Kooyoomjian Nicholas L. Clesceri 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1974,10(4):728-744
ABSTRACT: This paper examines four lake environments which are paired by lake size and by trophic state, where trophic state is employed as an identifier of water quality. Two large lakes and two intermediate-sized lakes, with each pair having one oligotrophic lake and one eutrophic lake are selected for cross-sectional survey-oriented questionnaire research. This paper focuses upon one aspect of the research, namely, the perception of water quality by three user groups. The user groups examined are recreationists, cottage and homeowners, and fishermen. The groups are compared utilizing percentage response profiles and cluster level groupings. It appears from a preliminary analysis of the data that the lakes selected are viable trophic state endpoints for questionnaire analysis of respondents. Each user group surveyed does appear sensitive to select water quality parameters; where shifts in sensitivity appear within and between user groups with changes in ecological settings, as well as with factors independent of ecological settings. 相似文献
258.
Attitudes towards Recycling Household Waste in Exeter, Devon: quantitative and qualitative approaches 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Recycling of household waste has become a very problematic area of British local government policy-making in which central government has set ambitious targets. Although local government can provide facilities for recycling, the attitudes of residents will be crucial if these targets are to be met. Accordingly, this paper outlines a framework for studying how households decide to recycle or not. The framework has been tested in Exeter in south-west England where a major survey found that respondents were much more likely to recycle if they had access to a structured kerbside recycling scheme. Many other factors influenced their attitudes and behaviours towards recycling, including their acceptance of the activity and their perception of the benefits and problems of recycling as a whole. The research uses the quantitative and qualitative data from the survey to demonstrate how individual attitudes can impact on recycling and how such research can yield useful data to enable policy-makers to adapt measures accordingly. 相似文献
259.
Nicholas D. Stone Ben E. Cline James Pease 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2002,38(2):355-365
ABSTRACT: A fundamental problem faced in developing spatially explicit, simulation‐based analyses of watershed management and policy options is determining the distribution and spatial location of agricultural resources within a watershed based on incomplete information. This paper describes the use of simulated annealing, a heuristic scheduling process, to generate an assignment of all livestock and agricultural fields in a watershed to hypothetical farms such that the combined distribution of farm types, livestock, and farmland within the watershed is a reasonable representation of watershed‐level data. Compared to a manual method using GIS‐based analysis and data from aerial photography, the heuristic method was more likely to generate realistic spatial characterizations of the distribution of agricultural resources and practices in a watershed. Also compared to the manual method, the heuristic process was considerably more efficient and could more easily accommodate multiple criteria and modifications to those criteria. 相似文献
260.