A process-based population dynamics model to explore target and non-target impacts of a biological control agent

The risks and benefits associated with efforts to control invasive alien species using classical biological control are being subjected to increasing scrutiny. A process-based population dynamics model was developed to explore the interactions between a folivorous biological control agent, Cleopus japonicus, and its plant host Buddleja davidii. The model revealed that climate could have a significant impact upon the interactions between B. davidii and C. japonicus. At the coolest sites, the impact of C. japonicus on B. davidii was slowed, but it was still eventually capable of controlling populations of B. davidii. At the warmer sites where both B. davidii and C. japonicus grew faster, B. davidii succumbed rapidly to weevil damage. We hypothesise that barring an encounter with a natural enemy, C. japonicus will eventually be able to provide sustained control B. davidii throughout the North Island of New Zealand. The model scenarios illustrate the potential for the C. japonicus population to attain high densities rapidly, and to defoliate patches of B. davidii, creating the potential for spill-over feeding on non-target plants. The potential magnitude of this threat will depend partly on the climate suitability for C. japonicus, the pattern by which it migrates in response to a reduction in the available leaf resource, and the suitability of non-target plants as hosts. In all migration scenarios considered, the pattern of population growth and resource consumption by C. japonicus was exponential, with a strong tendency toward complete utilisation of resource patches more quickly at the warmer compared to colder sites. In addition to providing some useful hypotheses about the effects of climate on the biological control system, and the non-target risks, it also provides some insight into the mechanisms by which climate affects the system.     

A comparison of visual and olfactory learning performance in the bumblebee Bombus terrestris

Animals use cues from a range of sensory modalities to discriminate stimuli and as predictors of reward. Whilst there is appreciable variation in the cognitive performance of animals, we know surprisingly little about the extent to which learning varies among individuals across different sensory modalities. Do individuals that are good at learning in one sensory modality also perform well in another (performance is correlated between modalities), or do individuals demonstrate specialisation in learning performance in one modality (trading-off performance between modalities)? We tested these hypotheses by examining the performance of 76 Bombus terrestris workers, from four colonies, in both an odour-and visual learning task. Olfactory learning was assessed using proboscis extension reflex (PER) conditioning and visual (colour) learning was examined using a well-established free-flying paradigm. Our results showed neither a correlation, nor a trade-off, in individual performance for learning tasks using different sensory modalities. However, there was considerable variation among workers within each colony in their performance in both learning tasks. This extent of interindividual variation in learning ability across sensory modalities could be adaptive for colonies dealing with changeable foraging conditions. There was also significant intercolony variation in final task performance level in the olfactory learning task, and both the strength and persistence of blue preference in the colour learning task. This is the first study to demonstrate variation in olfactory learning performance across multiple bumblebee colonies using PER conditioning, suggesting this is an effective paradigm for assessing associative olfactory learning performance both within and among colonies.     

Temporal and spatial variations of PM2.5 organic and elemental carbon in Central India

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - This study describes spatiotemporal patterns from October 2015 to September 2016 for PM2.5 mass and carbon measurements in rural (Kosmarra), urban (Raipur),...     

Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis,high, medium,and low scenarios in 2035

Today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas–fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet penetration is low, today’s total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas–fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These “pump-to-wheels”(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions.

Implications: Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies were combined with future market growth scenarios, estimated technology advancements, and best practices to examine the climate benefit of future fuel switching. The analysis indicates the necessary targets of efficiency, methane emissions, market penetration, and best practices necessary to enable a pathway for natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the heavy-duty transportation sector.     

Reconstructed Streamflows for the Headwaters of the Wind River,Wyoming, United States1

Abstract: Tree rings offer a means to extend observational records of streamflow by hundreds of years, but dendrohydrological techniques are not regularly applied to small tributary and headwaters gages. Here we explore the potential for extending three such gage records on small streams in the Wind River drainage of central Wyoming, United States. Using core samples taken from Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), piñon pine (Pinus edulis), and limber pine (Pinus flexilis) at 38 sites, we were able to reconstruct streamflows for the headwaters of the Wind River back to 1672 AD or earlier. The streamflow reconstructions for Bull Lake Creek above Bull Lake; the Little Popo Agie River near Lander, Wyoming; and Wind River near Dubois, Wyoming explained between 40% and 64% of the observed variance, and these extended records performed well in a variety of statistical verification tests. The full reconstructions show pronounced inter‐annual variability in streamflow, and these proxy records also point to the prevalence of severe, sustained droughts in this region. These reconstructions indicate that the 20th Century was relatively wet compared to previous centuries, and actual gage records may capture only a limited subset of potential natural variability in this area. Further analyses reveal how tree‐ring based reconstructions for small tributary and headwaters gages can be strongly influenced by the length and quality of calibration records, but this work also demonstrates how the use of a spatially extensive network of tree‐ring sites can improve the quality of these types of reconstructions.     

Drink driving deterrents and self-reported offending behaviours among a sample of Queensland motorists

Problem

The efficacy of drink driving (driving under the influence, DUI) countermeasures to deter motorists from driving over the legal limit is extremely important when considering the personal and economic impact the offending behavior has on the community. This paper reports on an examination of 780 Queensland motorists' perceptions of legal and non-legal sanctions and their deterrent impact on self-reported offending behavior. Method: The data were collected via a telephone survey of motorists recruited from a random sample of all listed telephone numbers in the state, adjusted according to district population figures. Results: The results indicated that there were a range of legal and non-legal factors that were significantly associated with self-reported DUI including: the perceived risk of apprehension and license loss (legal factors); and concerns relating to the possibility of being involved in a crash and hurting another person (non-legal factors). However, additional multivariate analyses indicated that while both legal and non-legal factors significantly predicted self-reported DUI, higher alcohol consumption levels and more favorable attitudes to the behavior also appear to increase the likelihood of DUI. Discussion: The paper will outline the direct implications of the research project such as the development and promotion of countermeasures that both effectively deter motorists and address pro-offending attitudes. Impact on industry: The findings also highlight that DUI remains a relatively common behaviour among some motoring groups and that there is a need to extend current levels of enforcement as well as adopt innovative strategies to enhance the impact of these operations on the offending behaviour.     

Emissions of gas- and particle-phase polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Shing Mun Tunnel,Hong Kong

Real-world vehicle emission factors for seventeen gas and particulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were quantified in the Shing Mun Tunnel, Hong Kong during summer and winter 2003. Naphthalene, acenaphthylene, and acenaphthene were the most abundant gas PAHs while fluoranthene and pyrene were the most abundant in the particle phase. Most (98%) of the gas PAHs consisted of two- and three-aromatic rings whereas most of the particle-phase PAHs were in four- (～60%) and five-ring (～17%) for fresh exhaust emissions. Average emission factors for the gas- and particle PAHs were 950–2564 μg veh^?1 km^?1 and 22–354 μg veh^?1 km^?1, respectively. Good correlations were found between diesel markers (fluoranthene and pyrene; 0.85) and gasoline markers (benzo[ghi]perylene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene; 0.96). Higher PAH emission factors were associated with a higher fraction of diesel-fueled vehicles (DV) passing through the tunnel. Separate emission factors were determined from diesel and non-diesel exhaust by the regression intercept method. The average PAH emission factor (i.e., sum of gas and particle phases) from DV (3085 ± 1058 μg veh^?1 km^?1) was ～5 times higher than that from non-diesel-fueled vehicles (NDV, 566 ± 428 μg veh^?1 km^?1). Ratios of DV to NDV emission factors were high for diesel markers (>24); and low for gasoline markers (<0.4).     

Reproduction and survival of tawny owls in relation to persistent organic pollutants

The potential effects of organochlorines (OCs) and brominated flame retardants on reproduction and survival were studied in tawny owls (Strix aluco) in Central Norway over a period of 19 years (1986-2004). Concentrations of 14 OCs and five polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in eggs (n=104), and Principal Component Analysis was used to produce composite measurements of pollutants; i.e. PC1 and PC2, which accounted for 85% of the variation in contaminant concentrations. There was no evidence for adverse associations between pollutants (PC scores) and life-history traits such as clutch size, probability of producing fledglings and survival, when controlling for potentially confounding variables. Moreover, there was no evidence for interactions between pollutants and vole abundance suggesting no synergistic effects of food stress and pollutants on these life-history traits. There was, however, some evidence for a non-linear negative association between p,p'-DDE (1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl) ethylene) and eggshell thickness. This suggests that the concentrations of pollutants in this ecosystem were too low to affect reproduction and survival in an owl predominantly consuming prey at low trophic levels, but may be sufficient to cause eggshell thinning at the highest concentrations.