Incorporating Climate Change Into Water Resources Planning in England and Wales1

Arnell, Nigel W., 2011. Incorporating Climate Change Into Water Resources Planning in England and Wales. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):541‐549. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00548.x Abstract: Public water supplies in England and Wales are provided by around 25 private‐sector companies, regulated by an economic regulator (Ofwat) and environmental regulator (Environment Agency). As part of the regulatory process, companies are required periodically to review their investment needs to maintain safe and secure supplies, and this involves an assessment of the future balance between water supply and demand. The water industry and regulators have developed an agreed set of procedures for this assessment. Climate change has been incorporated into these procedures since the late 1990s, although has been included increasingly seriously over time and it has been an effective legal requirement to consider climate change since the 2003 Water Act. In the most recent assessment in 2009, companies were required explicitly to plan for a defined amount of climate change, taking into account climate change uncertainty. A “medium” climate change scenario was defined, together with “wet” and “dry” extremes, based on scenarios developed from a number of climate models. The water industry and its regulators are now gearing up to exploit the new UKCP09 probabilistic climate change projections – but these pose significant practical and conceptual challenges. This paper outlines how the procedures for incorporating climate change information into water resources planning have evolved, and explores the issues currently facing the industry in adapting to climate change.     

Thinking,feeling and deciding: The influence of emotions on the decision making and performance of traders

We report on a qualitative investigation of the influence of emotions on the decision making of traders in four City of London investment banks, a setting where work has been predominantly theorized as dominated by rational analysis. We conclude that emotions and their regulation play a central role in traders' decision making. We find differences between high and low performing traders in how they engage with their intuitions, and that different strategies for emotion regulation have material consequences for trader behavior and performance. Traders deploying antecedent‐focused emotional regulation strategies achieve a performance advantage over those employing primarily response‐focused strategies. We argue that, in particular, response‐focused approaches incur a performance penalty, in part because of the reduced opportunity to combine analysis with the use of affective cues in making intuitive judgments. We discuss the implications for our understanding of emotion and decision making, and for traders' practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Blinkered teaching: tandem running by visually impaired ants

During tandem runs, one ant worker recruits another to an important resource. Here, we begin to investigate how dependent are tandem leaders and followers on visual cues by painting over their compound eyes to impair their vision. There are two ways in which Temnothorax albipennis might use vision during tandem running. First, the follower might track the movements of the leader by keeping it in sight. Our results suggest that the ants do not use vision in this way. For example, in all four classes of tandem run (those with either leader or follower, both, or neither of their participants with visual impairments) progress was most smooth at about 3 mm/s. This suggests that communication between leaders and followers during tandem runs is not based on vision and is purely tactile and pheromonal. Second, the leader and the follower might be using vision to navigate and our results support this possibility but also suggest that these ants have other methods of navigation. Ants with visual impairments were more likely to follow than to lead, but could occupy either role, even though they had many fully sighted nestmates. This might help to explain why the ants did not focus grooming on their most visually impaired nestmates. Wild-type tandem runs, with both participants fully sighted and presumably taking time to learn landmarks, were overall significantly slower, smoother, and a little less tortuous, than the other treatments. All four classes of tandem run significantly increased mean instantaneous speeds and mean absolute changes in instantaneous acceleration over their journeys. Moreover, tandems with sighted followers increased their speed with time more than the other treatments. In general, our findings suggest that eyesight is used for navigation during tandem running but that these ants also probably use other orientation systems during such recruitment and to learn how to get to new nest sites. Our results suggest that the ants’ methods of teaching and learning are very robust and flexible.     

Quantification of gasoline-ethanol blend emissions effects

ABSTRACT

Emissions levels from current gasoline spark-ignited engines are low, and emissions changes associated with the blending of ethanol into gasoline are small and difficult to quantify. Addition of ethanol, with a high blending octane number, allows a reduction in aromatics in market gasoline. Blending behavior of ethanol is nonlinear, altering the distillation curve, including the 50% temperature point, T50. Increase in gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine technology in the fleet challenges ability of older models based on port fuel injection (PFI) results to predict the overall air quality impact of ethanol blending. Five different models derived from data collected through U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Energy Policy Act (EPAct) programs were used to predict LA92 Phase 1 particulate matter (PM) emissions for summer regular (SR) E0 (gasoline with 0% ethanol by volume), E10 (gasoline with 10% ethanol) and E15 (gasoline with 15% ethanol). Substantial reductions of PM for E10 and E15 relative to E0 were predicted when aromatics were displaced by ethanol to maintain octane rating. SR E0 and E10 were also matched to linear combinations of EPAct fuels and results showed a 35% PM reduction for SR E10 relative to SR E0. For GDI vehicles the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) E-94-3 study found that E10 had 23% or 29% PM increase. However, CRC E-129 found an E10 PM reduction of 10% when one E0 fuel and its splash blended (SB) E10 were compared. Both CRC project E-129 SB data and fuel triplets selected from the EPAct study showed variation for E15 emissions, although E-129 suggests that E15 in GDI offers about a 25% reduction of PM with respect to E0. Overall, data suggest that ethanol blending offers a modest to a substantial reduction of cold-start PM mass if aromatic levels of the finished products are reduced in response to ethanol addition.

Implications: Studies of exhaust emissions effects of ethanol blending with gasoline vary in conclusions. Blending properties are nonlinear. Modeling of real-world emissions effects must consider all fuel composition adjustments and property changes associated with ethanol addition. Aromatics are reduced in E10 or E15, compared with E0, and distillation changes. PFI-derived models show reductions in cold-start PM for expected average E10 versus E0 pump fuel, due to reduced aromatic content. Relative emissions effects from older technology (PFI) engines do not predict newer engine (GDI) results reliably, but recent GDI data show reduced cold-start PM when ethanol displaces aromatics.     

A composite measure of habitat loss for entire assemblages of species

Habitat destruction is among the greatest threats facing biodiversity, and it affects common and threatened species alike. However, metrics for communicating its impacts typically overlook the nonthreatened component of assemblages. This risks the loss of habitat going unreported for species that comprise the majority of assemblages. We adapted a widely used measure for summarizing researcher output (the h index) to provide a metric that describes natural habitat loss for entire assemblages, inclusive of threatened and nonthreatened species. For each of 447 Australian native terrestrial bird species, we combined information on their association with broad vegetation groups with distributional range maps to identify the difference between the estimated pre-European and current extents of potential habitat, defined as vegetation groups most closely associated with each species. From this, we calculated the loss index (LI), which revealed that 30% of native birds have each lost at least 30% of their potential natural habitat (LI = 30). At the subcontinental scale, LIs ranged from 15 in arid Australia to 61 in the highly transformed southeastern part of the country. Different subcomponents of the assemblage had different LI values. For example, Australia's parrots (n = 52 species) had an LI of 38, whereas raptors (n = 32 species) had an LI of 25. The LI is simple to calculate and can be determined using readily available spatial information on species distributions, native vegetation associations, and human impacts on natural land cover. This metric, including the curves used to deduce it, could complement other biodiversity indices if it is used for regional and global biodiversity assessments that compare the status of natural habitat extent for assemblages within and among nations, monitor changes through time, and forecast future changes to guide strategic land-use planning. The LI is an intuitive tool that can be used to summarize and communicate how human actions affect whole assemblages, not just threatened species.     

Responding to Atmospheric Change: A Note on Integrated Land Planning and Management

Responsibilities for the management of Canada's land (in the sense, approximately, of biophysical environment) are currently fragmented among a multitude of government agencies, a state of affairs that will at best seriously hamper an adequate response to the profound long-term consequences of atmospheric change. The solution must be a coordinated division of labour within a dual framework of common policies and ecologically-based geographic units. On a small scale, a number of models are already functioning in Canada.     

A Systems Approach to Materials Flow in Sustainable Cities: A Case Study of Paper

This study develops a modelling framework within which the effects of technology choice and policy on the sustainability of cities may be assessed. A life cycle accounting system for environmental impacts is combined with systems analysis, to represent the flows of resources into cities, the wastes and pollution generated and the technological choices available in an urban environment. The approach is demonstrated through a case study of the demand for paper and management of wastepaper. The case study questions the applicability for paper of the accepted 'hierarchy' of waste management techniques; incineration imposes lower environmental costs than recycling, and consequently lower total costs under some circumstances.     

Prenatal diagnosis for women aged 37 years and over: to have or not to have

Forty percent of pregnant women aged 37 years and over do not have prenatal diagnosis despite being eligible for a free test. The present study aimed to determine how often, and which, untested women were making a choice about this, how many declined an offer and why. A questionnaire was given to untested women, aged 37 years and over, at no less than 24 weeks gestation. A total of 375 (81.5%) women declined, 72 (16%) were not offered a test and 13 presented too late antenatally. There was a three-fold increased likelihood (OR 3.10 95% CI 1.44, 6.65) of no offer for urban non-English speaking background women, compared with the reference group (metropolitan, English speaking). Unpartnered women were also significantly less likely to receive an offer (OR 3.18, 95% CI 1.19, 8.46). Risk to the baby was the main reason for declining. When offered non-invasive prenatal screening, most decliners of prenatal diagnosis accepted, even those who declined because they were opposed to abortion. We estimate that overall 33% of older pregnant women were being offered and declining amniocentesis and/or chorion villus sampling (CVS). Only 6% were not offered a test, but this small proportion is over-represented by minority groups who must be given equal opportunity to make this choice. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International perspectives on the implementation of reproductive carrier screening

Reproductive carrier screening started in some countries in the 1970s for hemoglobinopathies and Tay-Sachs disease. Cystic fibrosis carrier screening became possible in the late 1980s and with technical advances, screening of an ever increasing number of genes has become possible. The goal of carrier screening is to inform people about their risk of having children with autosomal recessive and X-linked recessive disorders, to allow for informed decision making about reproductive options. The consequence may be a decrease in the birth prevalence of these conditions, which has occurred in several countries for some conditions. Different programs target different groups (high school, premarital, couples before conception, couples attending fertility clinics, and pregnant women) as does the governance structure (public health initiative and user pays). Ancestry-based offers of screening are being replaced by expanded carrier screening panels with multiple genes that is independent of ancestry. This review describes screening in Australia, Cyprus, Israel, Italy, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It provides an insight into the enormous variability in how reproductive carrier screening is offered across the globe. This largely relates to geographical variation in carrier frequencies of genetic conditions and local health care, financial, cultural, and religious factors.