Receptor modeling application framework for particle source apportionment

Receptor models infer contributions from particulate matter (PM) source types using multivariate measurements of particle chemical and physical properties. Receptor models complement source models that estimate concentrations from emissions inventories and transport meteorology. Enrichment factor, chemical mass balance, multiple linear regression, eigenvector. edge detection, neural network, aerosol evolution, and aerosol equilibrium models have all been used to solve particulate air quality problems, and more than 500 citations of their theory and application document these uses. While elements, ions, and carbons were often used to apportion TSP, PM10, and PM2.5 among many source types, many of these components have been reduced in source emissions such that more complex measurements of carbon fractions, specific organic compounds, single particle characteristics, and isotopic abundances now need to be measured in source and receptor samples. Compliance monitoring networks are not usually designed to obtain data for the observables, locations, and time periods that allow receptor models to be applied. Measurements from existing networks can be used to form conceptual models that allow the needed monitoring network to be optimized. The framework for using receptor models to solve air quality problems consists of: (1) formulating a conceptual model; (2) identifying potential sources; (3) characterizing source emissions; (4) obtaining and analyzing ambient PM samples for major components and source markers; (5) confirming source types with multivariate receptor models; (6) quantifying source contributions with the chemical mass balance; (7) estimating profile changes and the limiting precursor gases for secondary aerosols; and (8) reconciling receptor modeling results with source models, emissions inventories, and receptor data analyses.     

Application of simple soil-water flow models to the transfer of surface-applied solutes to streams

In the context of leaching of surface-applied nitrate fertilizer to runoff, this paper evaluates the performance of five simple predictive models, based upon: (1) field capacity; (2) uniform displacement; (3) wetting front; (4) by-passing (preferential) flow; and (5) soil-water domains. Predicted behaviour and observed on an 85-cm depth soil are compared for leaching depth and outflow response. Predictive success of outflow by the models for 40 monitored rainfall events were: (1) 60%; (2) 52%; and (3) 76%. For the by-passing flow model (4), simple prediction of pedal excess flow (4a) gave a success of 80%; where calculations of the operational volume in preferential flow were involved (4b), variations from 20 to 100% success occurred for a range of operational volumes, the lowest volumes giving the greatest success (4c). The soil-water domain model (5) is a simple, predictive scheme involving the classification of outflow events according to antecedent soil moisture (θ_a); the method uses the mobile: retained water content (θ_r) at 2 bars and field capacity (θ_fc). Using soil-water domains alone was of limited success but when the domains were combined with rainfall intensity, the scheme specified outflow exactly. Thus, for θ_a < θ_r, no soil-water outflow occurred, even at high rainfall intensity; for θ_a >θ_fc outflow always occurred, even at low rainfall intensity and for θ_a >θ_r < θ_fc the simple by-passing model (4a) achieved 100% predictive success. The implications for fertilizer application are discussed.     

Particle size relationships at the Fresno Supersite

Aerosol size distributions are presented for a winter intensive study at the Fresno Supersite. The size distributions were consistent with and predictive for continuous PM2.5 measured by beta attenuation. They varied temporally with respect to source type and intensity, with the smallest mean diameters associated with high NOx concentrations during weekday morning rush hours. Conversely, small and large particle and black carbon (BC) concentrations were higher during Sunday and weekday evenings in response to traffic and residential wood combustion emissions. Ambient PM2.5 light scattering (Bsp) was precisely but systematically underestimated during winter, probably because of heating in the sample shelter.     

Chapter one: exposure measurements

Determining human exposure to suspended particulate concentrations requires measurements that quantify different particle properties in microenvironments where people live, work, and play. Particle mass, size, and chemical composition are important exposure variables, and these are typically measured with time-integrated samples on filters that are later submitted to laboratory analyses. This requires substantial sample handling, quality assurance, and data reduction. Newer technologies are being developed that allow in-situ, time-resolved measurements for mass, carbon, sulfate, nitrate, particle size, and other variables. These are large measurement systems that are more suitable for fixed monitoring sites than for personal applications. Human exposure studies need to be designed to accomplish specific objectives rather than to serve too many purposes. Resources need to be divided among study design, field sampling, laboratory analysis, quality assurance, data management, and data analysis phases. Many exposure projects allocated too little to the non-measurement activities.     

Black carbon aerosol at McMurdo Station, Antarctica

Aerosol light absorption as black carbon (BC) was measured from November 19, 1995, to February 6, 1996, at a location 0.65 km downwind of the center of McMurdo Station on the Antarctic coast. The results show a bimodal frequency distribution of BC concentrations. Approximately 65% of the measurements were found in a mode at a low range of concentrations centered at approximately 20 ng/m3. These concentrations are higher than those found at other remote Antarctic locations and probably represent contamination from the station. The remaining measurements were in a high-concentration mode (BC approximately 300 ng/m3), indicating direct impact of local emissions from combustion activities at the station. High values of BC were associated with winds from the direction of the station, and the BC flux showed a clear directionality. Maximum BC concentrations occurred between 7:00 and 11:00 a.m. The "polluted" mode accounted for more than 80% of the BC frequency-weighted impact at this location.     

Evaluation of an intensive sampling and analysis method for carbon monoxide

This paper describes a portable, low-cost whole air sampler capable of collecting 12 1-L samples in tedlar bags and using a single "D" cell for power. The results are presented from two tests of an intensive sampling and analysis method for measuring ambient carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations in urban areas using this sampler. The method is evaluated in comparison with an approved continuous CO analyzer, in intercomparisons of the results of re-analysis of the samples, and by examination of the results from co-located samplers. The precision of the analytical method was found to be +/-0.30 ppmv. The precision of the sampling method was found to be +/-0.73 ppmv and therefore is the limiting factor in the method's overall precision. These values are sufficient to verify attainment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) levels in urban areas. Improvements in the sampler and analytical procedure are discussed.     

Results from a pilot-scale air quality study in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Twenty-one samples were collected during the dry season (26 January–28 February 2004) at 12 sites in and around Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and analyzed for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM₁₀) mass and composition. Teflon-membrane filters were analyzed for PM₁₀ mass and concentrations of 40 elements. Quartz-fiber filters were analyzed for chloride, sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium ions as well as elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) content. Measured 24-h PM₁₀ mass concentrations were <100 and 40 μg m⁻³ at urban and suburban sites, respectively. PM₁₀ lead concentrations were <0.1 μg m⁻³ for all samples collected, an important finding because the government of Ethiopia had stopped the distribution of leaded gasoline a few months prior to this study. Mass concentrations reconstructed from chemical composition indicated that 34–66% of the PM₁₀ mass was due to geologically derived material, probably owing to the widespread presence of unpaved roads and road shoulders. At urban sites, EC and OC compounds contributed between 31% and 60% of the measured PM₁₀ while at suburban sites carbon compounds contributed between 24% and 26%. Secondary sulfate aerosols were responsible for <10% of the reconstructed mass in urban areas but as much as 15% in suburban sites, where PM₁₀ mass concentrations were lower. Non-volatile particulate nitrate, a lower limit for atmospheric nitrate, constituted <5% and 7% of PM₁₀ at the urban and suburban sites, respectively. At seven of the 12 sites, real-time PM₁₀ mass, real-time carbon monoxide (CO), and instantaneous ozone (O₃) concentrations were measured with portable nephelometers, electrochemical analyzers, and indicator test sticks, respectively. Both PM₁₀ and CO concentrations exhibited daily maxima around 7:00 and secondary peaks in the late afternoon and evening, suggesting that those pollutants were emitted during periods associated with motor-vehicle traffic, food preparation, and heating of homes. The morning concentration maxima were likely accentuated by stable atmospheric conditions associated with overnight surface temperature inversions. Ozone concentrations were measured near mid-day on filter sample collection days and were in all cases <45 parts per billion.     

Estimating Population Size in a Continuous-time Removal Experiment with a Known Sub-population Size Ratio

We study a continuous-time removal model for estimating the population size for a population in which a sub-population size ratio is known. The maximum likelihood estimate and the optimal martingale estimate of the population size are obtained; these are shown to be equivalent. A comparison between the proposed estimator and the maximum likelihood estimate which ignores the information on the known size ratio is made, using a simulation study. The asymptotic variances of these two estimators are also obtained, and a comparison between them is made. The sensitivity of mis-specification of the known size ratio is examined. We also apply the corresponding discrete-time model to the proposed continuous-time setting, and study the efficiency of the corresponding discrete-time type estimator relative to the proposed estimator.     

Provisional drivers' perceptions of the impact of displaying P plates

Objective: P plates (or decals) identify a driver's license status to other road users. They are a compulsory part of the graduated driver licensing system in Queensland, Australia, for drivers on a P1 (provisional 1) or P2 (provisional 2) license. This study explored the perceptions of young drivers regarding the display of P plates (decals) in Queensland, Australia.

Methods: In this study, 226 young drivers with a provisional (intermediate/restricted) license completed a 30-min online survey between October 2013 and June 2014. t Tests were used to compare the opinions of people who displayed their plates nearly always with those who displayed them less frequently.

Results: Participants approved of the requirement to display P plates with 69% of those on a P1 license and 79% on a P2 license supporting the condition to display P1 (red) plates. Participants on a P1 license (62%) and a P2 license (68%) also approved the requirement to display P2 (green) plates. However, young drivers also perceived that the display of P plates (measured from 1 = never to 5 = nearly all the time) enabled newly licensed drivers to be targeted by police and other drivers (those who do not always display P plates: M = 3.72, SD = 0.94; those who nearly always display P plates: M = 3.43, SD = 1.09).

Conclusions: The study findings suggest that participants who nearly always display their P plates are more likely to report that having to display their plates resulted in them driving more carefully.