A methodology for estimation of vehicle emissions in an urban environment: an example from Greater Manchester

Road transport is a major contributor to urban air pollution. The introduction of local air qua lity management in the UK will require objective test procedures to evaluate and prioritise the air pollution benefits of existing transport systems and proposed developments. This methodology has been developed to assist the land use and transport planning professionals in evaluating current and potential future impacts on air quality. The method couples an emissions estimation procedure to a traffic flow database. It requires data on emission factors, the composition of the vehicle fleet, vehicle control technologies and the daily traffic flow profile. With these data, it is possible to generate emission estimates per kilometre, link or road as selected by the user. Forecasts can be made by varying input variables. The current methodology allows prediction of five or more pollutant species/classes, limited only by availability of emission factors. The method utilises a commercially available personal computer based spreadsheet. Further coupling of the method to a geographical information system will improve the decision support capability of the method.     

Community attitudes to cystic fibrosis carrier testing in England: A pilot study

Inexpensive and accurate carrier testing for cystic fibrosis (CF) will be possible in the near future. There are no existing studies on the attitudes of English persons in the community to carrier testing for CF or any other recessive disorder. We have conducted a trial study of 166 persons at two schools, two doctors' surgeries, and a family planning clinic. Only a minority had clear pre-existing knowledge of cystic fibrosis and its genetic nature. However, over 80 per cent of those questioned expressed interest in knowing their carrier status. Although it is well known that uptake can only be assessed when a service is in place, and while further studies are required to confirm that testing will be of interest to couples of reproductive age with no previous knowledge of CF, the data strongly suggest that there will be interest in communitywide testing for CF carrier status when such a test becomes available in the United Kingdom.     

Deforestation Predicts the Number of Threatened Birds in Insular Southeast Asia

The world's tropical forests are being cleared rapidly, and ecologists claim this is causing a massive loss of species. This claim has its critics. Can we predict extinctions from the extent of deforestation? We mapped the percentage of deforestation on the islands of the Philippines and Indonesia and counted the number of bird species found only on these islands. We then used the species-area relationship to calculate the number of species predicted to become globally extinct following deforestation on these islands. Next, we counted the numbers of insular southeast Asian endemic bird species considered threatened—i.e., those having "a high probability of extinction in the wild in the medium-term future"—in the latest summary Red Data Book. The numbers of extinctions predicted from deforestation and the numbers of species actually threatened are strikingly similar. This suggests we can estimate the size of the extinction crisis in once-forested regions from the extent of deforestation. The numbers of extinctions will be large. Without rapid and effective conservation, many of the species endemic to insular southeast Asia will soon be lost.     

Conflicts,social economics and life history strategies in ants

Summary This paper presents a life history model for a perennial social insect colony. The model's purpose is to explore the evolutionary consequences, in terms of fitness of different parties within the colony, of alternative life history strategies. The model has been specifically developed for colonies of the slave-making ant, Harpagoxenus sublaevis, which has reproductive workers organized in dominance orders. It incorporates empirically obtained parameters, and uses computer algorithms based on numerical optimization to determine the optimum policy for a colony queen in allocating resources between workers, queens, and males. Variants of the model also consider alternative situations in which either (1) orphaned workers do not slave-raid, or (2) workers are sterile. The results correspond closely to data on colony growth and reproductive allocation obtained from the field. They suggest that a colony queen would suffer reduced fitness in the two theoretical cases as compared to the real situation. Reproduction by orphaned workers posthumously enhances the colony queen's fitness because a queen with sterile workers cannot produce enough extra sexuals in her lifetime to balance her loss in grandson production. The results also suggest that the division of labour between slave-raiding and nonraiding workers observed in H. sublaevis colonies can be explained as an outcome of worker-worker reproductive conflict: reproductively-inhibited subordinate workers can increase their inclusive fitness by slaveraiding for dominant, nonraiding egg-layers. These findings emphasize the evolutionary importance of the orphanage period and of intracolony conflict in monogynous social insect colonies.     

Estimating Population Size in a Continuous-time Removal Experiment with a Known Sub-population Size Ratio

We study a continuous-time removal model for estimating the population size for a population in which a sub-population size ratio is known. The maximum likelihood estimate and the optimal martingale estimate of the population size are obtained; these are shown to be equivalent. A comparison between the proposed estimator and the maximum likelihood estimate which ignores the information on the known size ratio is made, using a simulation study. The asymptotic variances of these two estimators are also obtained, and a comparison between them is made. The sensitivity of mis-specification of the known size ratio is examined. We also apply the corresponding discrete-time model to the proposed continuous-time setting, and study the efficiency of the corresponding discrete-time type estimator relative to the proposed estimator.     

Estimating middle-, neighborhood-, and urban-scale contributions to elemental carbon in Mexico City with a rapid response aethalometer.

A successive moving average subtraction method is developed and applied to black carbon measured over 5-min intervals at a downtown location near many small emitters and at a suburban residential site within the urban plume but distant from specific emitters. Short-duration pulses assumed to originate from nearby sources are subtracted from the concentrations at each site and are summed to estimate middle-scale (approximately 0.1-1 km) contributions. The difference of the remaining baselines at the urban and suburban monitors is interpreted as the contribution to the downtown monitor from source emissions mixed over a neighborhood scale (1-5 km). The baseline at the suburban site is interpreted as the contribution of the mixture of black carbon sources for the entire city. When applied to a 24-day period from February and March 1997 in Mexico City, the analysis showed that 65% of the 24-hr black carbon was part of the urban mixture, 23% originated in the neighborhood surrounding the monitor, and only 12% was contributed from nearby sources. These analyses indicate that a fixed-site monitor can reasonably represent exposures in its surrounding neighborhood even when many local sources, such as exhaust from diesel buses and trucks, affect the monitor.     

Experimental evidence of a risk-sensitive reproductive allocation in a long-lived mammal

When reproduction competes with the amount of resources available for survival during an unpredictable nonbreeding season, individuals should adopt a risk-sensitive regulation of their reproductive allocation. We tested this hypothesis on female reindeer (Rangifer tarandus), which face a trade-off between reproduction and acquisition of body reserves during spring and summer, with autumn body mass functioning as insurance against stochastic winter climatic severity. The study was conducted in a population consisting of two herds: one that received supplementary winter feeding for four years while the other utilized natural pastures. The females receiving additional forage allocated more to their calves. Experimental translocation of females between the herds was conducted to simulate two contrasting rapid alterations of winter conditions. When females receiving supplementary feeding were moved to natural pastures, they promptly reduced their reproductive allocation the following summer. However, when winter conditions were improved, females were reluctant to increase their reproductive allocation. This asymmetric response to improved vs. reduced winter conditions is consistent with a risk-averse adjustment in reproductive allocation. The ability of individuals to track their environment and the concordant risk-sensitive adjustment of reproductive allocation may render subarctic reindeer more resilient to climate change than previously supposed.