ANALYSIS OF FIRM WATER SUPPLY UNDER COMPLEX INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS1

River basin computer simulation studies often do not properly include the complex legal and institutional factors governing water allocation. These factors include formal water rights and informal borrowing agreements among the basin water users. An attempt has been made in this study to show that such factors can be included. We also show that an optimal, integrated approach to reservoir operations in a river basin can do much to alleviate the burden of new demands placed on available water resources. The procurement of a firm water supply for a proposed coal fired power plant is analyzed as a case study. An efficient river basin simulation model is used to determine the viability of a scheme for providing an annual firm water supply to the plant, with consideration of the existing water storage and demands within the basin. Given the hydrologic sequence considered, the model results show that the proposed strategy is viable in that the required firm water supply can be realized without causing harm to decreed water users in the basin. However, integrated diversion and reservoir operations are required to assure a desirable uniform rate of delivery of reusable effluent to the power plant.     

Critical Review on the Public Health Impact of Norovirus Contamination in Shellfish and the Environment: A UK Perspective

We review the risk of norovirus (NoV) infection to the human population from consumption of contaminated shellfish. From a UK perspective, risk is apportioned for different vectors of NoV infection within the population. NoV spreads mainly by person-to-person contact or via unsanitary food handling. NoV also enters the coastal zone via wastewater discharges resulting in contamination of shellfish waters. Typically, NoV persists in the marine environment for several days, with its presence strongly linked to human population density, wastewater discharge rate, and efficacy of wastewater treatment. Shellfish bioaccumulate NoV and current post-harvest depuration is inefficient in its removal. While NoV can be inactivated by cooking (e.g. mussels), consumption of contaminated raw shellfish (e.g. oysters) represents a risk to human health. Consumption of contaminated food accounts for 3–11% of NoV cases in the UK (~74,000 cases/year), of which 16% are attributable to oyster consumption (11,800 cases/year). However, environmental and human factors influencing NoV infectivity remain poorly understood. Lack of standard methods for accurate quantification of infective and non-infective (damaged) NoV particles represent a major barrier, hampering identification of an appropriate lower NoV contamination limit for shellfish. Future management strategies may include shellfish quality assessment (at point of harvest or at point of supply) or harvesting controls. However, poor understanding of NoV inactivation in shellfish and the environment currently limits accurate apportionment and risk assessment for NoV and hence the identification of appropriate shellfish or environmental quality standards.     

Measuring the environmental performance of IPPC industry: II. Applying the Environmental Emissions Index to quantify environmental performance trends from routinely reported data

Reported emissions data were collated for 35 pharmaceutical-manufacturing installations and 18 power stations holding IPPC licences in Ireland. Consistent and essentially complete sectoral emissions time-series were generated, covering 2002–2006 for the pharmaceutical sector, and 2001–2006 for the electricity-generating sector. Applying the Environmental Emissions Index (EEI) to reported emissions indicated environmental performance improvements of 35 and 30%, respectively, for these two sectors. However, considerable uncertainty was attributed to reporting of heavy metals, NO_x and NMVOC emissions at the installation level, and overall NMVOC emissions from the pharmaceutical sector appeared to be considerably under-reported. The fixed average toxicity factor applied to NMVOC emissions in the EEI may deviate from potential temporal changes in the NMVOC compound mix. Overall, reporting uncertainties were found to have a greater impact on EEI outputs than assumptions made in the EEI model, and including an estimate of total sectoral NMVOC emissions reduced the pharmaceutical sector's environmental performance improvement to 24%. The EEI facilitates the comparison and visualisation of reported emissions, integrating them into environmental performance trends. It should optimise interpretation of abundant, detailed, and underutilised ‘bottom-up’ emissions data generated by IPPC installations. For Ireland's pharmaceutical sector, these data are considerably more comprehensive than EPER data.     

Noisy and definitely not normal: responding to wicked issues in the environment,energy and health

Attempts by researchers and policy-makers to address the ‘wicked’ issues which pervade environmental policy usually revolve around attempting – or recommending – both more participatory and transparent, and more systematic and evidence-based, policy-making. Post-normal science (PNS), with its ‘extended peer community’, has emerged as one approach, whilst others focus on procedural reforms of the policy process, particularly on enhancing democratic decision-making. This paper applies a novel analytical framework to a primarily documentary analysis of three cases we argue are wicked—Canadian regulatory review of health products and food, European union (EU) environmental thematic strategies, and United Kingdom (UK) energy and climate change policy. It explores how various responses to wicked issues are implemented, through the ‘lenses’ of PNS and, more generally, ‘democratic and effective decision-making’. It finds such responses are often limited by practical and fundamental barriers relating to handling of uncertainty, issue framing, participation, power, politics, and attitude to evidence. We draw conclusions about future research on PNS, particularly the need to more clearly relate theory to different strands of literature on the evidence–policy-making relationship, and to continue empirical testing.     

Projecting effects of improvements in passive safety of the New Zealand light vehicle fleet

OBJECTIVES: In the year 2000, as part of the process for setting New Zealand road safety targets, a projection was made for a reduction in social cost of 15.5 percent associated with improvements in crashworthiness, which is a measure of the occupant protection of the light passenger vehicle fleet. Since that document was produced, new estimates of crashworthiness have become available, allowing for a more accurate projection. The objective of this paper is to describe a methodology for projecting changes in casualty rates associated with passive safety features and to apply this methodology to produce a new prediction. METHOD: The shape of the age distribution of the New Zealand light passenger vehicle fleet was projected to 2010. Projected improvements in crashworthiness and associated reductions in social cost were also modeled based on historical trends. These projections of changes in the vehicle fleet age distribution and of improvements in crashworthiness together provided a basis for estimating the future performance of the fleet in terms of secondary safety. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: A large social cost reduction of about 22 percent for 2010 compared to the year 2000 was predicted due to the expected huge impact of improvements in passive vehicle features on road trauma in New Zealand. Countries experiencing improvements in their vehicle fleets can also expect significant reductions in road injury compared to a less crashworthy passenger fleet. Such road safety gains can be analyzed using some of the methodology described here.     

Changing patterns of radionuclide distribution in Irish Sea subtidal sediments

This paper presents new data on the distribution of long-lived radionuclides in Irish Sea subtidal sediments, contaminated as a result of the BNFL Sellafield discharges. The results from different sampling campaigns in 1999 have been combined to assess the extent of radionuclide mobility relative to earlier surveys, in both the eastern and western Irish Sea areas, and to investigate changes in radionuclide distribution over time. The results appear to confirm the trend of continuing re-distribution and transfer of contamination away from the English coast. West of the Isle of Man, radionuclide concentrations and inventories have remained more or less constant. The inventory of radionuclides in sandy sediments in the eastern Irish Sea is still under-represented by current sampling, but could be improved by deeper and more extensive vibrocoring.     

Soil C storage as affected by tillage and straw management: An assessment using field measurements and model predictions

Soil tillage and straw management are both known to affect soil organic matter dynamics. However, it is still unclear whether, or how, these two practices interact to affect soil C storage, and data from long term studies are scarce. Soil C models may help to overcome some of these problems. Here we compare direct measurements of soil C contents from a 9 year old tillage experiment to predictions made by RothC and a cohort model. Soil samples were collected from plots in an Irish winter wheat field that were exposed to either conventional (CT) or shallow non-inversion tillage (RT). Crop residue was removed from half of the RT and CT plots after harvest, allowing us to test for interactive effects between tillage practices and straw management. Within the 0–30 cm layer, soil C contents were significantly increased both by straw retention and by RT. Tillage and straw management did not interact to determine the total amount of soil C in this layer. The highest average soil C contents (68.9 ± 2.8 Mg C ha^?1) were found for the combination of RT with straw incorporation, whereas the lowest average soil C contents (57.3 ± 2.3 Mg C ha^?1) were found for CT with straw removal. We found no significant treatment effects on soil C contents at lower depths. Both models suggest that at our site, RT stimulates soil C storage largely by decreasing the decomposition of old soil C. Extrapolating our findings to the rest of Ireland, we estimate that RT will lead to C mitigation ranging from 0.18 to 1.0 Mg C ha^?1 y^?1 relative to CT, with the mitigation rate depending on the initial SOC level. However, on-farm assessments are still needed to determine whether RT management practices can be adopted under Irish conditions without detrimental effects on crop yield.     

Describing Damage to Stream Modification Projects in Constrained Settings

Complex relationships between stream functions and processes make evaluation of stream modification projects difficult. Informed by vague objectives and minimal monitoring data, post‐construction project evaluations can often be a subjective attribution of success or failure. This article provides a simple framework to rapidly describe the degree of damage in stream modification projects performed in constrained settings. Based on widely accepted evaluations of physical habitat quality and stream stability, the damage states framework describes a continuum of damage in multiple categories that relate natural stream functions to the often desired state of static equilibrium. Given that channel form is closely related to stream function, it follows that changes to the channel form result in changes in function. The damage states focus on damage to flow hydraulics, sediment transport and channel equilibrium, hydraulic, and geomorphic parameters that describe basic stream functioning and support higher level functions in the modified channel. The damage states can be used in decision making as a systematic method to determine the need for repair and design adjustments.     

The relative importance of COVID-19 pandemic impacts on biodiversity conservation globally

The COVID-19 pandemic has had an enormous impact on almost all aspects of human society and endeavor; the natural world and its conservation have not been spared. Through a process of expert consultation, we identified and categorized, into 19 themes and 70 subthemes, the ways in which biodiversity and its conservation have been or could be affected by the pandemic globally. Nearly 60% of the effects have been broadly negative. Subsequently, we created a compendium of all themes and subthemes, each with explanatory text, and in August 2020 a diverse group of experienced conservationists with expertise from across sectors and geographies assessed each subtheme for its likely impact on biodiversity conservation globally. The 9 subthemes ranked highest all have a negative impact. These were, in rank order, governments sidelining the environment during their economic recovery, reduced wildlife-based tourism income, increased habitat destruction, reduced government funding, increased plastic and other solid waste pollution, weakening of nature-friendly regulations and their enforcement, increased illegal harvest of wild animals, reduced philanthropy, and threats to survival of conservation organizations. In combination, these impacts present a worrying future of increased threats to biodiversity conservation but reduced capacity to counter them. The highest ranking positive impact, at 10, was the beneficial impact of wildlife-trade restrictions. More optimistically, among impacts ranked 11-20, 6 were positive and 4 were negative. We hope our assessment will draw attention to the impacts of the pandemic and, thus, improve the conservation community's ability to respond to such threats in the future.