Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

Migration of saline solutions in variably saturated porous media

Migration of concentrated NaNO3 solutions in homogeneous packs of pre-wetted silica sands was investigated using a light transmission system. Solutions of 5 molal NaNO3 were found to migrate downward 24-62% faster than pure water, in an unstable, fingered manner. This behavior was attributed primarily to a surface tension induced, non-zero apparent contact angle between the imbibing and the resident fluids. For saline solutions of similar surface tension to that of pure water (achieved by the addition of 2% methanol), the migration rates and plume shapes were comparable to that of water, demonstrating that density was not the primary source of the observed differences in migration patterns. At depths where resident saturation increased above residual, the migration process appeared to occur via film flow with slight changes in saturation (<4%), rather than in a series of abrupt jumps, as observed at shallower depths. A method for contact angle scaling was used to illustrate the effects of non-zero contact angles on capillary pressure-saturation curves.     

Relationships between Danish organic farming and landscape composition

This article presents an investigation of relationships between organic farming and landscape composition in Denmark. Landscape composition was analysed in terms of density of uncultivated landscape elements (I), number of land uses per hectare (II), diversity of land use (III) and mean field size (IV). Two analytical approaches were used. The first was based on an examination of the national agricultural registers for 1998, 2001 and 2004. The second approach used aerial photo interpretation for an analysis of 72 conventional and 40 organic farms within three sample areas for 1982, 1995 and 2002. The national analysis indicated that organic farming has a direct effect on landscape composition. In 2001, organic farms were characterised by a higher number of land uses per ha, a higher land use diversity and smaller mean field sizes. From 1998 to 2004, conversion to organic farming was related to an increasing number of land uses per ha, increasing land-use diversity and decreasing mean field sizes. Relationships between organic farming and landscape composition were independent of variations in regional location, farm size or farm size change. At the level of sample areas, a significant relationship between organic farming and landscape composition was only found for densities of small biotopes. However, when differences in farm size and physical geographical conditions between conventional and organic farms were taken into account, several significant differences in landscape composition were clarified in two of the three sample areas. Furthermore, changes in landscape composition following conversion to organic farming were largely biased by the characteristics of the sample areas. Thus, in contrast to the national level, the sample area study indicated that differences in landscape composition between organic and conventional farms were not a direct implication of organic farming practices, but were related to variations within other parameters and to the location of organically farmed land.     

Habitat utilization and alteration by the invasive burrowing isopod, Sphaeroma quoyanum, in California salt marshes

In recent years the pace of exotic species introduction and invasion has accelerated, particularly in estuaries and wetlands. Species invasions may affect coastal ecosystems in many ways. Alteration of sedimentary environments, through structure formation and burrowing, has particularly dramatic effects on coastal habitats. This study examines modification of channel bank and marsh edge habitat by the burrowing Australasian isopod Sphaeroma quoyanum Milne Edwards, in created and natural salt marshes of San Diego Bay and San Francisco Bay. Abundance and distribution patterns of this isopod species, its relationships with habitat characteristics, and its effects on sediment properties and bank erosion were examined seasonally, and in several marsh microhabitats. Mean isopod densities were 1541 and 2936 individuals per 0.25 m² in San Francisco Bay, and 361 and 1153 individuals per 0.25 m² in San Diego Bay study sites during December and July 1998, respectively. This isopod forms dense, anastomosing burrow networks. S. quoyanum densities did not differ as a function of location within creeks or location in natural versus created marshes. Burrows, which are on average 6 mm wide and 2 cm long, were associated with firm sediments containing high detrital biomass. Although erosion is a natural process along salt marsh banks, enclosure experiments demonstrated that isopod activities can enhance sediment loss from banks. In areas infested with S. quoyanum, losses may exceed 100 cm of marsh edge per year. The effects of habitat alteration by this invading species are likely to increase in severity in the coastal zone as these ecosystems become degraded. Received: 30 March 2000 / Accepted: 21 September 2000     

Developmental and behavioral effects of embryonic exposure to the polybrominated diphenylether mixture DE-71 in the killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus)

Exposures to penta polybrominated diphenylether (PeBDE) cause neurobehavioral toxicity in developing mice and rats. As levels of these ubiquitous contaminants are increasing in the environment, this raises concern that wildlife may also suffer such effects, with consequences for their ability to catch prey and avoid predators. PeBDE levels in wild-caught fish have been steadily escalating over the past fifteen years. To our knowledge, behavioral consequences of piscine embryonic exposure to PeBDE has not yet been studied. The objectives of this investigation were to characterize effects on development in an environmentally relevant fish model, and test for latent behavioral effects following cessation of exposure. Embryos from the estuarine minnow, Fundulus heteroclitus, were exposed from day 0-7 post fertilization to the industrial PeBDE mixture, DE-71 (0.001 to 100 microg l(-1)). Embryos were assayed for hatching success, development, and microsomal enzyme cytochrome P4501A (CYP1A) activity, which was determined by analysis of in ovo ethoxy-resorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activation in embryos. Larval fish were assayed for predation ability, activity level, and fright response to a simulated predator. Juvenile fish were assayed for learning ability in a three-chambered fish maze. No induction of embryonic EROD activity was observed, nor was a high dose of DE-71 able to inhibit EROD activity induced by beta-naphthoflavone. No deformities were detected, but a subtle developmental asymmetry with respect to tail curvature direction was observed, and a hatching delay of up to 4.5 days was noted. Behavioral test results suggest that embryonic exposure to DE-71 may alter activity level, fright response, predation rates, and learning ability in subsequent life stages.     

Air sampling of fungal spores on filters. An investigation on passive sampling and viability

In this study, glycerol was tested as a collection substrate for passive bioaerosol sampling. Filters (mixed cellulose acetate and nitrate) were soaked in glycerol and exposed for an aerosol from three different fungal species: Penicillum commune, Aspergillus versicolor and Paecilomyces variotii. The passive sampling method was compared with a closed-face polycarbonate filter sampling method. Exposure was performed in an exposure chamber. The total number of spores was determined by microscopic techniques, and the cultivable number was determined by cultivation on Malt Extract Agar dishes. The glycerol soaked filter demonstrated a good correlation with the closed-face sampler with regard to the total count. Spores stored in a pumped filter cassette were not affected by storage for up to 7 days. On the other hand, the culturability of the spores was markedly decreased after 1 day when stored on glycerol soaked filters.     

Passive sampling in combination with thermal desorption and gas chromatography as a tool for self-assessment of chemical exposure

Diffusive samplers for monitoring of air quality are user-friendly devices that can normally be operated by the user himself. Hence these samplers are suitable for self-assessment. Practical and work organisational aspects of self-assessment of chemical exposure were studied in different occupational settings. It was found that the diffusive sampler used in these studies, the Perkin-Elmer tube in combination with thermal desorption, worked well for the purpose and could be correctly handled by the individuals using it. The results from self-assessments agreed well with expert measurements carried out by an occupational hygienist. However, in order to obtain a sustainable system of self-assessment strong organizational support is needed.