Economics of an ecotourism operation in Belize

The economic inputs and outputs for the Possum Point Biological Station in Belize during 1990–1992 are described to illustrate some aspects of an ecotourism operation. Eight hundred fifty-four people in 59 groups visited Possum Point during the study period to tour rain forests, estuaries, and coral reefs. The economic input to Possum Point from these groups increased from $74,552 in 1990 to $166,268 in 1992. Outputs were for license fees, capital improvements, goods and services, labor, fossil fuels, and development of a historic sugar mill site. An annual donation was also made to a scholarship fund for local Belizean students. The net cash balance of income and outputs changed from negative (−$6678) in 1990 to positive (+$4811) in 1992, suggesting development of the economic operation. Possum Point meets the economic criteria for ecotourism by feeding back some tourist monies for community and environmental support, particularly donations for the sugar mill site and the scholarship fund. Most of the outputs from Possum Point (about 80%) were retained in the local economy through employment and purchases, which have a positive influence on the local community. We conclude that ecotourism operations, such as Possum Point, offer important sustainable development opportunities for Belize.     

MONITORING STRATEGIES TO DETERMINE COMPLIANCE WITH WATER QUALITY OBJIECTIVES1

ABSTRACT: Two sampling strategies designed to test for compliance with water quality objectives are examined. For objectives based on long-term mean requirements, fixed frequency sampling at frequent intervals is most advantageous regardless of the underlying distribution of the data. For objectives that are based on maximum allowable concentrations, effective sampling strategies increase the likelihood of detecting noncompliance. If data are highly autocorrelated or sharply seasonal in distribution, an exceedance-driven sampling strategy is more effective and efficient for detecting violations than fixed frequency sampling. However, data generated by exceedance-driven sampling provide biased estimates of mean and standard deviation.     

Book reviews

ANALYTICAL PLANNING: THE ORGANISATION OF SYSTEMS

Thomas L. Saaty and Kevin P. Kearns

Pergamon Press, 1985. Price: U.S. $40.00, U.K. £29.50.

THE GEOGRAPHER AT WORK

Peter Gould

Routledge and Kegan Paul, London 1985’ Price: £8.95.

UTOPIA ON TRIAL

Alice Colman

Hilary Shipman Ltd., 19 Framfield Road, Highbury, London. May 1985 (reprinted August, 1985). Price: £7.95.

SIR RAYMOND UNWIN: ARCHITECT, PLANNER AND VISIONARY

Frank Jackson

A. Zwemmer Ltd., London 1985. 187 pp. with maps and illustrations.

STRATEGIC PLANNING IN ACTION: THE IMPACT OF THE CLYDE VALLEY REGIONAL PLAN 1946–1982

R. Smith and U. Wannop (eds)

Gower, 1985, 272 pp. Price: £16.50.

LOCALITIES, CLASS AND GENDER

The Lancaster Regionalism Group (Linda Murgatroyd, Mike Savage, Dan Shapiro, John Urry, Sylvia Walby, Alan Warde, with Jane Mark‐Lawson)

Pion Ltd., 1985. Price: £12.00.     

RED ALDER LEAF LITTER AND STREAMWATER QUALITY IN WESTERN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: Streamside red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) stands are common in western Oregon, and they have been suspected of causing water quality problems in domestic supplies during autumn leaf fall. Studies in the Seaside municipal watershed showed potential water quality effects (particularly increased color) from alder leaves, but stream sampling during 1981–82 revealed no chronic problems. The few observed short-term increases in water color occurred near the onset of storm flows, which suggested a flushing of organic matter storage sites. An extended period of unusually low flows and high leaf fall are probably necessary to produce significant water quality problems in this stream system. Laboratory leaching of alder leaves in filtered stream water indicated a fairly constant release of colored organic matter over time, and running water leached this matter more efficiently than still water. Water color increased linearly with increasing leaf mass added to still water, and for a given leaf mass there appeared to be a limit to the amount of colored matter that could be removed in the first 48 hours of leaching. Other laboratory tests showed that ultraviolet absorbance (254 mm) may provide a reasonable estimate of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in systems dominated by alder leaf inputs.     

FLOOD-RUNOFF FORECASTING WITH HEC1F1

HEC1F is a computer program for making short- to medium-term forecasts of uncontrolled flood runoff. The program employs unit hydrographs and hydrologic routing to simulate runoff from a subdivided basin. Estimates of future rainfall can be accommodated. Runoff parameters for gaged headwater subbasins can be estimated (optimized) in real time. Blending of calculated with observed hydrographs can be performed. HEC1F is a component of an on-line software system that includes capability for data acquisition and processing, precipitation analysis, streamflow forecasting, reservoir system analysis, and graphical display of data and simulation results. The conceptual framework for HEC1F is described, and application of the program is illustrated.     

A statistical approach to estimating driver responsibility in two-car crashes

A statistical model is developed relating driver age distributions in one-car and two-car crashes to the probability that both of the drivers in a two-car crash are similarly responsible for the crash as are drivers in a single-car crash. The model is applied to (a) passenger car crashes in the years 1975–1980 involving a driver fatality, compiled in the U.S. Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS), and (b) all police-reported crashes occurring in North Carolina in 1979, supplied by the North Carolina Highway Safety Research Center. Appropriate national and North Carolina driver license data are used to estimate exposure to potential crashes as a function of driver age. The model is found to provide an adequate fit to observed driver age distribution in two-car crashes for both data sets. The results obtained from this fit to the model equations indicate that for two-car crashes involving a driver fatality, both drivers contribute to the responsibility for the crash in about 40% of cases, but for less severe two-car crashes, only one of the two involved drivers is generally responsible.     

AN EXAMINATION OF RELATIVE PERMEABILITY RELATIONS FOR TWO-PHASE FLOW IN POROUS MEDIA1

ABSTRACT: A key parameter in modeling two-phase flow phenomena is relative permeability. It is important to understand which variables influence relative permeability, especially since so few measurements of relative permeability have been made for typical contaminants at hazardous waste sites. This paper focuses on the effect of five variables on relative permeability: intrinsic permeability, pore-size distribution, viscosity ratio, interfacial tension, and wettability, by critically reviewing previously published relative permeability experiments. The wide variability in the functional relationship between relative permeability and saturation should be considered in attempts to model two-phase flow.     

Louisiana wetland loss: A regional water management approach to the problem

Loss of Louisiana's coastal wetlands has reached catastrophic proportions. The loss rate is approximately 150 km²/yr (100 acres/day) and is increasing exponentially. Total wetland loss since the turn of the century has been almost 0.5 million ha (1.1 million acres) and represents an area larger than Rhode Island. The physical cause of the problem lies in man's attempts to control the Mississippi River's flooding, while enhancing navigation and extracting minerals. Levee systems and control structures confine sediments that once nourished the wetlands to the river channel. As a consequence, the ultimate sediment deposition is in deep Gulf waters off the Louisiana coast. The lack of sediment input to the interdistributary wetlands results in an accretion deficit. Natural and human-induced subsidence exceeds accretion so that the wetlands sink below sea level and convert to water. The solution is to provide a thin veneer of sediment (approximately 0.6 cm/yr; an average of 1450 g m^?2 yr^?1) over the coastal marshes and swamps and thus prevent the submergence of vegetation. The sediment source is the Mississippi River system. Calculations show that 9.2% of the river's annual suspended sediment load would be required to sustain the deltaic plain wetlands. It should be distributed during the six high-water months (December–June) through as disaggregated a network as possible. The problem is one of distribution: how can the maximum acres of marsh be nourished with the least cost? At present, the river is managed through federal policy for the benefit of navigation and flood control. A new policy structure, recognizing the new role for the river-sediment distribution, is recommended.     

PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD ESTIMATION-EASTERN UNITED STATES1

In 1982, the National Weather Service (NWS) published criteria for developing the spatial and temporal precipitation distribution characteristics of Probable Maximum Storms. The criteria, which are intended for use in the United States east of the 105th meridian, involve four variables: (1) location of the storm center, (2) storm-area size, (3) storm orientation, and (4) temporal arrangement of precipitation amounts. A computer program has been developed which applies the NWS criteria to produce hyetographs of spatially-averaged precipitation for a basin, or for each subbasin if the basin is subdividided. The basis and operational characteristics of the program are described, and an application is illustrated in which the program is used in conjunction with a precipitation-runoff simulation program (HEC-1) to compute a Probable Maximum Flood.